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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 10.30-11.6.2017

October 30, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant

“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won’t see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow

“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position where you cannot live to fight another day.” – Dick Fuld

“In November you begin to know how long the winter will be.” – Martha Gellhorn

“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it’s one that severely compounds the risk.” – David Ignatius 

 

Tech stocks led the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new highs. Euphoria has not accompanied these new highs. Global central bank support has resulted in an environment where every market pullback is a buying opportunity. I continue to be skeptical, wary and to this date, wrong. The markets seem to have a continuing ability to shake off and and all bad news. The major concerns are higher inflation and the appointment of a new Fed chief. Either could force central banks and the fed to take a more hawkish stance.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 27-Oct Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 23434.19 105.56 0.45% 18.58% 11.89% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2581.07 5.86 0.23% 15.31% 9.80% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 6213.47 104.65 1.71% 27.75% 14.30% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1508.32 (0.96) -0.06% 11.14% 13.49%(RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1140.09 4.83 0.43% 14.99% 8.27%(VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4784.36 (82.44) -1.69% 18.09% NA
Crude Oil (CLz7) 54.19 2.12 4.07% 0.56% 25.18%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1274.60 (7.20) -0.56% 10.64% 11.48%(GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 9.80 (0.17) -1.71% NA

Data Source: OptionVue8

The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. The cash VIX was lower for the week, while the November through January monthly futures were higher. The behavior of the monthly futures and the CBOE longer term indexes (VXST, VXV, and VXMT) are showing near support for current volatility levels.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Indexes Ticker 27-Oct 20-Oct Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 9.80 9.97 -0.17 -1.71%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) VXX7 11.425 11.325 0.100 0.88%
VIX December Future (12/20/2017) VXZ7 12.225 12.125 0.100 0.82%
VIX January Future (1/17/2018) VXZ7 13.325 13.275 0.050 0.38%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.61 8.41 0.200 2.38%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 11.96 11.96 0.000 0.00%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 14.48 14.35 0.130 0.91%
VIX of VIX VVIX 92.78 90.53 2.250 2.49%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 135.70 148.81 (13.11) -8.81%
Long VIX ETP’s
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 15.62 15.26 0.36 2.36%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 34.26 33.79 0.47 1.39%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 28.43 28.05 0.38 1.35%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 19.25 19.23 0.02 0.10%
Inverse VIX ETP’s
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 106.33 108.19 (1.86) -1.72%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 110.66 112.68 (2.02) -1.79%

Data Source: OptionVue8

The last few days of October and first few days of November include several important economic reports. The Fed will hold a regularly scheduled meeting on Tuesday and announce its policy decisions on Wednesday. It is “Employment Week.” A host of October employment reports will be released at the end of the week. These reports used to move the markets. In addition, we will get reports on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. Motor Vehicle sales.

Earnings announcements will be coming fast and furious this week. FANG components Facebook and Apple will announce quarterly results on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Earnings announcements include: Mondelez Int’l, MasterCard, Cummins, ADM, Pfizer, Mosaic, Ecolab, MetLife, Facebook, Estee Lauder, Qualcomm, Prudential, Marathon Oil, Williams, Yum! Brands, CBS, ADP, HCP, Apple, Apache, Starbucks and Duke Energy. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffett 

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan

“It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre

 

Monday, October 30: 

Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.

International: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment – 4:55AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 6:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM.

Other: Bank of Japan Announcement.Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ALSN AMC $40.97 1.79% 1,847,810 4.54% $39.08 $37.87
D AMC $80.41 3.28% 2,124,520 1.63% $79.63 $78.34
EIX AMC $78.73 1.31% 1,774,440 0.69% $78.78 $78.38
MAC AMC $57.05 2.96% 1,466,310 2.54% $57.20 $55.59
MDLZ AMC $40.91 1.27% 8,443,140 2.08% $41.10 $41.02
OHI AMC $31.32 7.12% 1,835,500 2.88% $31.82 $31.87
SBAC AMC $146.55 5.29% 1,499,030 1.99% $148.10 $146.59
SRE AMC $115.11 1.65% 1,080,200 1.10% $114.34 $113.52
SUM AMC $31.94 21.24% 1,211,320 3.24% $31.66 $31.62
UDR AMC $38.25 2.43% 1,236,460 1.67% $38.51 $38.36
VNO AMC $72.98 1.70% 1,077,800 2.37% $75.75 $76.36

 

Tuesday, October 31: 

Economic: Employment Cost Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence – 10:00.

International: Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.

Other: FOMC Meeting Begins.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ADM BMO $43.01 2.20% 2,842,280 5.45% $43.52 $43.37
AET BMO $178.60 4.77% 1,814,420 1.58% $159.66 $167.34
AMT BMO $138.45 1.24% 1,842,170 0.60% $0.00 $0.00
BP BMO $38.65 0.27% 4,509,400 2.63% $38.84 $38.39
CMI BMO $178.64 6.64% 1,198,170 4.90% $176.01 $173.05
ETN BMO $79.50 1.40% 2,559,190 3.30% $78.73 $77.78
FIS BMO $95.94 1.29% 1,220,310 1.97% $95.22 $94.25
HCA BMO $76.89 2.47% 2,405,130 1.14% $78.13 $76.47
INCY BMO $115.56 2.84% 1,561,860 2.59% $114.78 $113.06
K BMO $60.55 1.70% 2,733,810 3.05% $61.43 $62.49
LL BMO $35.55 37.81% 1,392,790 14.91% $34.94 $36.58
MA BMO $146.59 0.70% 3,124,460 2.13% $146.02 $143.10
OLN BMO $35.35 7.48% 1,884,530 5.40% $35.09 $35.14
PEG BMO $49.36 2.53% 2,589,390 1.97% $48.90 $47.45
PFE BMO $35.74 5.23% 17,085,000 1.67% $36.16 $35.98
SERV BMO $45.09 1.51% 1,228,080 6.05% $46.28 $46.38
SHOP BMO $104.11 5.12% 3,647,270 7.76% $100.31 $105.41
APC AMC $47.69 3.42% 4,985,230 1.44% $48.31 $48.45
CHRW AMC $79.59 15.37% 1,675,790 4.20% $77.97 $76.67
CXO AMC $130.12 6.67% 1,185,510 4.06% $132.25 $130.74
EA AMC $115.83 1.78% 2,499,160 1.09% $114.94 $115.40
EVHC AMC $43.27 5.96% 2,275,640 0.82% $42.84 $42.81
EXAS AMC $49.33 13.98% 1,571,150 13.57% $48.14 $47.28
OKE AMC $53.43 8.17% 3,016,200 1.86% $55.45 $54.95
VOYA AMC $40.21 1.85% 1,402,900 2.10% $40.00 $39.77

 

Wednesday, November 1: 

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report = 8:15, Treasury Refunding Announcement – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30

International Economic: No major announcements.

Other: FOMC Meeting Announcement – 2:00. 

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AGN BMO $176.33 1.48% 2,946,060 2.54% $189.38 $195.83
BG BMO $69.96 1.74% 1,014,400 9.98% $70.88 $70.59
COMM BMO $31.73 3.47% 1,700,820 8.08% $32.05 $32.38
CTSH BMO $74.58 1.23% 2,881,650 4.50% $74.34 $73.28
DVN BMO $34.91 3.81% 4,104,940 2.73% $35.13 $35.71
EAT BMO $31.12 11.42% 1,341,320 3.83% $31.68 $31.81
EL BMO $111.79 3.35% 2,168,340 4.90% $110.35 $109.25
HFC BMO $36.10 5.45% 2,854,370 3.79%3 $36.28 $35.30
ICPT BMO $59.32 28.85% 1,543,740 9.41% $64.72 $77.42
LITE BMO $61.65 19.18% 1,725,960 6.83% $58.37 $57.30
MD BMO $43.49 8.53% 1,282,090 6.74% $43.33 $43.33
NVO BMO $48.86 0.22% 1,991,450 8.52% $49.70 $49.15
PPL BMO $37.69 1.56% 2,926,890 0.68% $37.70 $38.08
SBGI BMO $31.40 17.93% 1,796,420 3.53% $30.55 $30.45
SO BMO $52.06 2.51% 4,572,820 1.59% $51.75 $50.44
SPR BMO $79.67 7.08% 1,081,600 7.86% $79.87 $79.07
TAP BMO $80.37 2.87% 1,441,160 2.19% $82.83 $82.63
TEL BMO $88.59 1.43% 1,122,650 2.23% $88.18 $85.17
TEX BMO $46.76 1.68% 1,250,040 2.77% $46.18 $44.81
ZBH BMO $121.00 3.44% 1,299,240 4.15% $120.94 $118.24
CAKE AMC $44.18 25.63% 1,365,400 6.04% $43.28 $42.44
CF AMC $37.45 7.57% 4,143,010 6.51% $36.99 $35.97
CLVS AMC $74.35 17.98% 1,593,120 4.87% $78.54 $79.12
CTRP AMC $46.60 7.99% 4,773,320 2.96% $50.81 $51.52
DXCM AMC $44.46 14.71% 2,029,600 8.07% $44.92 $56.53
EFX AMC $108.95 3.61% 3,786,560 3.35% $109.25 $104.86
ES AMC $62.24 2.38% 1,469,580 0.90% $61.96 $61.22
EXR AMC $78.70 2.61% 1,009,340 2.13% $81.38 $79.78
FB AMC $170.63 0.99% 15,285,100 2.35% $173.42 $169.15
FLS AMC $44.74 6.34% 1,398,270 3.88% $44.67 $43.55
GXP AMC $32.40 1.88% 1,788,370 0.71% $32.07 $31.20
JUNO AMC $43.53 18.87% 2,633,820 6.88% $43.52 $44.19
KHC AMC $77.30 2.50% 3,294,540 1.58% $77.21 $78.29
LBTYA AMC $30.99 1.16% 2,060,820 1.16% $31.76 $32.72
LBTYK AMC $30.00 1.43% 2,999,920 1.12% $30.77 $31.66
MET AMC $54.21 1.65% 5,238,120 2.55% $53.28 $52.14
OXY AMC $64.62 1.27% 3,542,010 2.84% $64.99 $64.24
PRU AMC $111.89 1.36% 1,798,980 3.22% $110.26 $108.41
PXD AMC $142.31 5.65% 2,129,160 4.59% $143.74 $147.19
QCOM AMC $53.80 1.49% 7,906,630 2.57% $52.94 $52.65
QRVO AMC $71.56 7.54% 1,077,590 1.68% $71.34 $70.55
SGMS AMC $44.00 27.20% 1,068,680 5.68% $43.71 $44.58
SYMC AMC $31.86 3.61% 6,188,580 3.56% $32.22 $32.56
TDOC AMC $31.75 28.16% 1,055,830 6.63% $33.13 $32.67
TSLA AMC $326.17 24.15% 5,785,630 5.70% $344.49 $350.01
WBMD AMC $66.48 15.85% 1,312,380 1.25% $66.46 $66.36
XPO AMC $69.14 18.94% 1,518,780 3.88% $67.01 $66.28
YELP AMC $45.00 15.66% 2,015,850 15.99% $44.02 $44.04

 

Thursday, November 2: 

Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, , Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 455, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 5:00AM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ABC BMO $78.77 3.40% 1,711,590 6.75% $80.97 $81.64
ADP BMO $117.30 2.23% 4,309,180 5.96% $115.38 $112.07
ALL BMO $93.96 0.88% 2,029,120 3.17% $92.70 $92.14
ALR BMO $50.99 7.11% 1,523,300 3.13% $50.35 $49.39
AN BMO $47.77 10.80% 1,519,450 3.99% $45.41 $46.41
APA BMO $39.59 7.26% 3,683,130 5.06% $41.30 $42.92
BABA BMO $170.32 8.92% 18,040,300 2.68% $175.56 $175.62
BDX BMO $209.84 1.96% 1,134,670 0.80% $207.65 $203.12
BLL BMO $42.73 7.43% 2,088,440 3.61% $42.39 $41.84
CAB BMO $61.50 14.11% 1,276,250 2.80% $61.39 $56.73
CHD BMO $45.76 5.71% 1,421,300 4.15% $46.78 $47.30
CI BMO $198.75 1.04% 1,268,920 1.21% $190.91 $191.13
CNQ BMO $32.83 2.50% 1,812,820 3.92% $32.91 $33.30
DLPH BMO $99.07 2.23% 1,607,670 2.92% $97.74 $99.96
ENB BMO $37.96 1.47% 1,844,330 0.98% $39.83 $39.95
EXC BMO $39.88 2.65% 4,813,300 0.86% $39.71 $38.59
ICE BMO $65.61 1.18% 2,346,080 2.56% $66.96 $68.08
LNC BMO $76.99 1.78% 1,255,760 1.14% $75.64 $74.57
NWL BMO $40.40 18.39% 4,726,930 4.60% $41.12 $41.95
PCG BMO $56.74 1.05% 4,108,360 0.56% $56.77 $59.75
PWR BMO $37.83 5.46% 1,414,400 1.96% $37.52 $37.58
RL BMO $91.26 7.78% 1,268,510 8.16% $88.25 $88.05
SNY BMO $47.54 0.19% 1,080,140 1.73% $49.16 $48.94
TDC BMO $32.57 12.90% 1,453,800 8.35% $32.53 $33.03
TRGP BMO $40.69 13.66% 1,480,830 1.91% $43.72 $44.16
VMC BMO $123.01 2.42% 1,266,250 3.43% $119.94 $119.27
W BMO $63.83 38.03% 1,616,780 6.37% $67.31 $73.75
WRK BMO $60.47 2.20% 1,403,460 1.75% $60.06 $58.09
YUM BMO $75.87 2.18% 1,835,370 1.81% $75.80 $74.77
ZTS BMO $63.74 1.06% 2,120,240 5.09% $65.24 $64.56
AAPL AMC $157.41 0.78% 27,509,400 3.48% $157.64 $155.01
AIG AMC $64.85 1.25% 5,083,100 2.89% $64.42 $62.78
AKRX AMC $32.84 20.01% 2,371,840 2.55% $33.19 $32.77
ALNY AMC $114.49 10.50% 1,304,250 8.16% $117.60 $117.14
ATVI AMC $62.06 1.80% 5,799,050 3.45% $61.84 $62.66
CBS AMC $57.04 3.75% 3,163,470 1.96% $57.34 $58.48
CC AMC $56.61 4.75% 1,937,830 2.23% $56.44 $53.81
CRUS AMC $54.26 7.56% 1,023,520 6.86% $53.94 $52.94
ED AMC $85.50 5.16% 1,436,380 0.72% $84.47 $83.07
FLR AMC $42.69 5.41% 1,691,150 6.72% $42.70 $42.08
HLF AMC $71.23 36.18% 1,554,530 5.35% $74.89 $73.25
LNT AMC $43.38 1.91% 1,141,380 0.87% $43.46 $42.51
LYV AMC $42.26 4.47% 1,819,320 4.35% $42.47 $42.58
MNST AMC $56.75 1.69% 1,824,830 3.42% $56.38 $55.62
MOH AMC $65.53 18.08% 1,175,180 5.64% $63.85 $63.88
SBUX AMC $54.91 1.89% 10,265,100 3.01% $54.79 $54.90

 

Friday, November 3: 

Economic: October Employment Situation Report – 8:30, International Trade = 8:30, PMI Services Index – 9:45, Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count

International: No major announcements.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated Q&A with Women in Housing and Finance, in Washington, with audience Q&A – 12:30PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AEE BMO $61.38 2.39% 1,326,400 0.81% $61.21 $59.76
CBG BMO $39.59 2.55% 1,626,470 4.28% $39.67 $38.69
CNK BMO $36.78 3.63% 1,367,710 1.05% $35.95 $37.10
DUK BMO $87.36 3.00% 2,227,390 0.94% $87.49 $85.97
EOG BMO $96.92 2.91% 2,760,990 0.61% $96.71 $95.80
RLGY BMO $32.37 2.12% 1,307,490 3.25% $32.65 $33.24
XRAY BMO $61.37 3.62% 2,054,850 3.26% $60.42 $58.57

 

Monday, November 6: 

Economic: TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

International: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about Lessons from the Financial Crisis at a luncheon event at the Economic Club of New York, with moderated Q&A, in New York – 12:30PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 10/27 CLOSE SHORT INT% AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
CAH BMO $64.75 2.04% 2,233,600 2.05% $65.71 $66.59
CTLT BMO $42.58 5.54% 1,138,840 6.55% $42.40 $40.98
CVS BMO $73.31 1.36% 5,744,370 2.15% $74.36 $76.39
KORS BMO $49.76 6.69% 2,237,780 9.65% $49.20 $47.81
MYL BMO $38.57 5.23% 7,222,180 1.27% $38.40 $35.19
SYY BMO $54.86 4.27% 2,443,960 1.74% $54.76 $54.22
CAR AMC $41.29 51.48% 2,831,590 10.96% $41.20 $39.38
FANG AMC $100.88 5.30% 1,205,020 1.22% $101.47 $99.43
FMC AMC $93.14 8.70% 1,108,850 7.19% $94.06 $90.28
GDDY AMC $45.75 30.17% 1,442,080 3.93% $44.71 $44.31
KNX AMC $41.38 14.86% 2,260,040 3.43% $39.78 $39.94
LVLT AMC $52.85 1.52% 2,675,280 3.56% $53.49 $54.12
MCHP AMC $93.12 12.11% 1,808,790 3.13% $92.46 $90.92
PDCE AMC $46.25 10.91% 1,014,680 4.09% $47.40 $47.71
QGEN AMC $33.71 1.55% 1,201,430 2.45% $34.12 $33.78
RSPP AMC $32.00 12.01% 2,048,160 3.38% $33.13 $33.12
SWKS AMC $105.52 4.94% 1,500,290 2.40% $105.69 $103.26
TRIP AMC $37.75 20.21% 3,024,210 6.73% $39.47 $40.95
WTW AMC $44.63 71.96% 1,443,700 17.20% $45.96 $44.97
ZAYO AMC $35.75 3.31% 2,083,820 2.21% $35.63 $35.13

 

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