Listen Live
M-F 6AM-8AM

Blog

Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 7.31-8.7.2017

July 31, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Every society honors its live conformists and its dead troublemakers.” – Marshal McLuhan
“Nothing can make an injustice just but Mercy.” – Robert Frost
“Life is like Sanskrit read to a pony” – Lou Reed
“Sometimes it’s not enough to know what things mean,sometimes you have to know what things don’t mean.” – Bob Dylan 
It was a mixed bag for the equities last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rode Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA) to a new all-time High last week. Three of the four FANG stocks announced earnings last week. Facebook (FB) was up nearly 5% for the week, while Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN) were down 3.6% and 0.6% respectively. The net result was a minor loss for the technology laden NDX.
All week, the chatter has been about a correction or end of this bull market. This focus on the negative is occurring despite second quarter growth in the US GDP of 2.5% and across the board earnings of over 10%. Weakness in the US dollar will make US exports more attractive.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index 28-Jul Change % Weekly 2017 YTD Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) 21830.31 250.24 1.16% 10.46% 10.46% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX) 2472.10 (0.44) -0.02% 10.45% 10.29% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 5908.92 (12.60) -0.21% 21.49% 15.91% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT) 1429.26 (6.58) -0.46% 5.31% 15.30% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX) 1089.53 1.79 0.16% 9.89% 8.26% (VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) 4519.80 (117.54) -2.53% 11.56% NA
Crude Oil (CLU7) 49.79 4.19 9.19% -7.61% 29.86%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7) 1275.60 20.60 1.64% 10.73% 11.44 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) 10.92 1.56 16.67% NA

Data Source: OptionVue8 

In his song “Rock ‘n’ Roll”, Lou Reed summed up the reasons for VIX weaknesses better than any market mavens – “ There was nothin’ goin’ down at all, not at all.” VIX futures and options were little changed this week. However, shorter term volatility indexes and VIX related products showed some strength last week while moving off levels near all-time lows. Financial talking heads continued to focus on the weakness VIX as being a potential precursor to a market correction.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Indexes Ticker 28-Jul 21-Jul Change % Change
CBOE Volatility Index VIX 10.29 9.36 0.93 9.94%
VIX August Future (8/18/2017) VXQ7 11.375 11.375 0.00 0.00%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) VXU7 12.625 12.675 (0.05) -0.39%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) VXV7 13.825 13.475 0.35 2.60%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index VXST 8.55 7.10 1.45 20.42%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index VXV 12.58 12.06 0.52 4.31%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) VXMT 13.96 13.89 0.07 0.50%
VIX of VIX VVIX 87.20 77.86 9.34 12.00%
CBOE SKEW Index SKEW 139.91 134.53 5.38 4.00%
Long VIX ETP’s
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF UVXY 30.19 29.79 0.40 1.34%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN VXX 11.29 11.20 0.09 0.80%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF VIXY 37.54 37.31 0.23 0.62%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN VXZ 21.00 21.55 (0.55) -2.55%
Inverse VIX ETP’s
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF SVXY 90.22 90.96 (0.74) -0.81%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN XIV 93.62 94.25 (0.63) -0.67%

Data Source: OptionVue8

The first week of August is light on economic data. It includes June Factory Orders on Thursday and the June US Employment Situation Report on Friday. Vehicle sales on Tuesday will the first piece of information on July’s consumer data, while factory orders on Thursday will close out June data on manufacturing. The lack of economic data does not preclude volatility being injected into the markets.

Naysayers are looking at a number of potential sources of volatility in the market. North Korea’s bellicose behavior has yet to inject any fear into the markets. Week employment numbers on Friday could expose chinks in the bull market. The fourth component of Fang, Apple (AAPL) is announcing earnings after market close on Tuesday. Weaker than expected earnings could inject volatility into the markets. The chaos inside the beltway is a significant contributor to unease among financial talking heads. Earnings continue with the most active week of this earnings season. Earnings highlights for the coming week include: CME, Allstate, Cummins, Phillips 66, ADM, Pfizer, Mosaic, Ecolab, APPLE, Emerson Electric, Simon Property, MetLife, Mondelez, Exelon, Time Warner, Occidental Petroleum, Prudential, Marathon Oil, Yum! Brand, Kellogg, Viacom, Apache, and Berkshire Hathaway. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star.” — Friedrich Nietzsche 

“There’s no success like failure” – Bob Dylan 

“Avoid running at all times.” – Satchel Paige“ 

“August brings in sharp focus and a furious boil everything I’ve been listening to in the late spring and summer” – Henry Rollins 

 

Monday, July 31: 

Economic: Chicago PMI – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.

International Economic: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 5:00AM, Eurozone HICP Flash – 6:00AM, Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.

Other: Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ADM BMO $41.78 2,984,660 4.80% $41.51 $41.17
APD BMO $143.49 1,199,640 1.30% $145.17 $143.66
BP BMO $35.16 5,438,030 2.55% $34.87 $34.72
SNY BMO $47.56 1,868,820 1.88% $47.86 $48.41
ALSN AMC $37.64 1,389,490 4.41% $37.47 $37.84
SBAC AMC $137.64 1,040,360 2.33% $136.40 $134.87
VNO AMC $78.96 1,253,230 1.79% $82.22 $87.25

 

Tuesday, August 1: 

Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45AM, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00.

International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00AM, Eurozone GDP Flash – 5:00AM.

Other: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to be the keynote speaker at the Community Bankers Association of Ohio Annual Convention in Cincinnati – 11:00AM, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to discuss “Monetary Policy’s Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth” in Las Vegas, with audience and media Q&A – 2:30PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AN BMO $42.65 1,276,840 2.69% $42.53 $41.10
BG BMO $79.85 1,552,490 9.49% $79.28 $76.94
CME BMO $121.28 1,362,620 1.94% $120.90 $123.63
CMI BMO $167.22 1,364,150 3.52% $165.70 $164.23
D BMO $76.99 2,347,650 2.46% $76.92 $77.80
EMR BMO $59.53 3,489,590 3.00% $60.15 $59.34
ETN BMO $78.43 2,088,700 1.99% $79.54 $78.64
HCN BMO $73.07 1,606,630 0.47% $73.56 $75.12
HCP BMO $31.83 3,094,240 3.35% $31.82 $32.19
INCY BMO $135.74 1,721,720 2.13% $133.59 $131.94
NNN BMO $40.07 1,390,750 0.79% $40.08 $39.23
OLN BMO $30.25 2,283,430 3.98% $31.07 $29.73
PFE BMO $33.15 20,297,500 1.57% $33.30 $33.58
PSX BMO $83.65 2,128,540 0.92% $82.94 $81.78
RCL BMO $113.39 1,256,430 7.71% $113.34 $112.33
SHOP BMO $92.98 2,224,900 8.02% $91.84 $90.07
SPG BMO $160.52 1,952,440 2.71% $161.62 $160.04
TRI BMO $46.06 1,446,690 2.87% $45.93 $46.22
XRX BMO $30.43 2,314,850 2.00% $29.90 $29.46
XYL BMO $56.93 1,251,380 1.93% $56.95 $55.75
AAPL AMC $149.50 27,617,200 3.78% $150.92 $148.13
ALL AMC $90.50 1,748,910 1.94% $89.31 $89.19
ASH AMC $65.46 1,110,830 4.10% $66.38 $66.49
DVA AMC $65.47 1,464,350 3.38% $65.34 $64.38
DVN AMC $33.21 5,466,980 3.89% $32.20 $31.31
DXCM AMC $67.05 1,235,850 8.74% $69.68 $72.78
EXR AMC $77.92 1,101,570 4.00% $78.25 $77.38
FANG AMC $96.65 1,455,760 1.93% $93.16 $90.30
FMC AMC $76.65 1,107,800 5.78% $76.57 $74.86
GPT AMC $30.18 1,009,490 1.30% $30.01 $30.19
HLF AMC $67.24 1,075,880 5.75% $70.56 $70.58
OHI AMC $31.06 2,413,720 3.58% $33.31 $33.30
OKE AMC $56.46 4,427,010 2.50% $54.68 $51.88
OKS AMC $51.07 1,056,610 0.85% $48.79 $49.15
PXD AMC $161.41 1,629,270 4.20% $162.19 $159.69
RMD AMC $77.39 1,172,260 6.67% $77.58 $77.56

 

Wednesday, August 2: 

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, Gallup US Job Creation Index – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM, Japan PMI Composite – 8:30PM, China General Services PMI – 9:00PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
AME BMO $61.85 1,273,270 1.58% $61.49 $60.94
CAH BMO $77.61 1,971,670 1.92% $77.28 $78.06
DLPH BMO $89.95 1,985,670 4.67% $91.45 $89.18
EOG BMO $95.42 3,336,940 2.07% $93.53 $91.36
ETR BMO $76.25 1,012,700 1.05% $75.98 $77.41
EXC BMO $38.40 4,950,270 1.15% $37.26 $36.70
FIS BMO $90.83 1,535,160 2.92% $90.03 $87.53
GRMN BMO $51.32 1,059,170 5.13% $51.41 $51.27
HUM BMO $233.08 1,426,040 1.63% $235.62 $237.41
MAC BMO $57.85 1,291,440 1.52% $59.16 $58.81
MBLY BMO $63.33 2,860,710 2.79% $63.32 $62.97
MDCO BMO $38.41 1,161,510 2.93% $38.51 $40.45
MDLZ BMO $43.93 7,098,920 2.67% $43.95 $44.04
OXY BMO $62.73 4,787,670 3.19% $60.57 $60.00
Q BMO $90.65 1,022,260 1.89% $90.75 $90.09
QSR BMO $60.28 1,093,450 4.01% $61.27 $61.48
RAI BMO $65.40 7,666,680 1.78% $65.23 $65.45
RIO BMO $46.61 3,263,610 1.37% $45.19 $42.32
SBGI BMO $36.75 2,215,180 3.44% $34.61 $34.45
SO BMO $47.51 4,509,590 1.23% $47.31 $49.24
SPR BMO $60.89 1,015,710 7.47% $60.65 $58.44
TAP BMO $89.11 2,002,780 1.45% $88.22 $87.92
TEX BMO $38.69 1,646,410 2.23% $38.64 $37.05
TWX BMO $102.73 3,673,550 1.11% $100.09 $101.08
VMC BMO $124.00 1,077,040 4.32% $125.29 $128.72
VNTV BMO $64.02 1,975,540 1.75% $64.14 $62.55
VOYA BMO $39.00 1,500,080 3.97% $37.75 $36.95
AIG AMC $65.27 5,845,420 5.52% $64.48 $64.15
BIVV AMC $62.53 1,398,650 1.33% $62.18 $61.29
BLUE AMC $96.70 1,021,550 7.14% $96.77 $108.42
BMRN AMC $88.34 1,247,310 1.60% $88.41 $93.02
CA AMC $30.94 3,363,120 2.67% $34.22 $33.71
CAKE AMC $47.67 1,147,020 4.81% $49.87 $49.69
CC AMC $48.09 3,034,610 6.95% $45.83 $41.72
CLVS AMC $98.02 1,925,760 4.85% $87.39 $90.10
CRUS AMC $62.16 1,004,970 10.05% $63.85 $63.59
CTXS AMC $79.71 1,404,890 2.80% $81.55 $80.05
DATA AMC $64.85 1,124,810 9.64% $64.26 $63.76
HOLX AMC $44.12 2,548,410 4.11% $45.02 $45.47
HTA AMC $30.32 2,777,410 1.50% $30.31 $31.07
K AMC $67.65 2,278,640 1.96% $66.91 $68.39
LVLT AMC $58.61 2,270,280 3.80% $58.13 $59.23
MET AMC $55.25 4,966,030 4.34% $54.98 $54.32
MOH AMC $70.00 1,368,410 9.66% $70.40 $70.12
NXPI AMC $110.22 3,234,700 1.54% $109.70 $109.66
PRU AMC $113.20 1,808,100 2.84% $111.80 $108.30
PRXL AMC $87.38 1,321,630 7.32% $87.41 $87.33
QRVO AMC $69.00 1,850,050 5.90% $68.40 $67.43
SYMC AMC $31.03 7,963,450 4.66% $30.93 $29.47
TDOC AMC $33.75 1,003,500 13.37% $34.55 $33.84
TS AMC $31.64 1,982,480 2.83% $32.20 $31.31
TSLA AMC $335.07 8,041,690 3.59% $331.96 $345.06
TTWO AMC $80.10 2,398,650 4.12% $78.71 $76.59
WMB AMC $31.99 5,871,700 3.80% $31.50 $29.89
WPZ AMC $41.08 1,149,420 3.73% $41.11 $39.04
XPO AMC $60.09 1,988,690 7.41% $61.04 $61.98

 

Thursday, August 3: 

Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30,Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30AM, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, PMI Services Index – 9:45AM, Factory Orders _ 10:00, ISM Non-manufacturing Index – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
ABC BMO $93.97 1,337,930 5.60% $92.66 $94.08
AEE BMO $56.16 1,454,070 1.00% $55.73 $55.35
AER BMO $49.04 1,358,860 1.52% $48.84 $47.47
AET BMO $155.29 2,181,840 1.10% $155.18 $153.97
AGN BMO $253.01 2,188,600 3.10% $250.40 $247.60
AKRX BMO $33.63 2,320,480 7.13% $33.64 $33.56
ALNY BMO $82.63 1,097,750 8.50% $80.14 $81.47
AON BMO $138.67 1,175,240 1.79% $138.10 $136.75
APA BMO $50.01 3,618,860 3.74% $48.85 $47.56
AXTA BMO $31.98 1,417,030 0.79% $32.73 $32.33
BDX BMO $201.98 1,773,540 1.83% $202.66 $199.32
BERY BMO $56.03 1,017,130 3.55% $57.29 $57.48
BLL BMO $41.89 2,214,250 5.86% $42.47 $42.29
CHD BMO $53.30 1,442,750 4.64% $53.24 $52.77
CI BMO $173.97 1,451,790 2.07% $173.71 $170.93
CNQ BMO $30.95 2,483,990 5.31% $30.11 $29.41
COMM BMO $36.94 2,875,060 8.08% $35.38 $36.62
CTSH BMO $69.32 3,842,330 3.92% $69.56 $68.03
CXO BMO $130.56 1,342,790 3.25% $128.07 $123.61
DISH BMO $63.94 2,146,400 2.13% $64.92 $64.27
DUK BMO $84.91 2,477,360 1.18% $84.44 $84.93
ENB BMO $41.10 3,282,280 1.86% $41.39 $39.96
GPN BMO $94.52 1,062,950 4.26% $93.49 $91.77
HPP BMO $32.40 1,179,010 0.69% $32.30 $33.34
ICE BMO $66.37 2,593,790 2.73% $66.08 $65.69
LDOS BMO $53.60 1,172,350 3.39% $53.35 $52.60
LNC BMO $72.81 1,445,640 3.07% $71.30 $68.84
PGR BMO $47.22 3,036,020 1.94% $46.14 $45.56
PH BMO $164.75 1,074,720 2.34% $165.27 $161.53
PPL BMO $38.18 3,367,960 0.89% $38.02 $38.33
PRGO BMO $74.47 1,526,160 7.98% $0.00 $0.00
PWR BMO $33.58 1,709,280 2.97% $33.57 $33.04
RLGY BMO $33.01 1,117,940 6.16% $33.56 $32.31
SHPG BMO $168.29 1,260,150 3.39% $164.73 $167.43
SRE BMO $113.04 1,217,920 1.79% $113.08 $112.00
TEVA BMO $32.34 7,810,590 4.87% $32.34 $32.31
TRGP BMO $46.77 2,220,180 4.46% $46.32 $43.84
VWR BMO $33.00 1,363,740 2.22% $32.99 $33.05
WRK BMO $57.32 1,267,140 2.37% $58.99 $58.04
WYN BMO $103.62 1,047,400 7.23% $103.11 $102.75
YUM BMO $75.00 2,188,180 2.08% $74.40 $74.00
AAOI AMC $96.64 3,566,810 15.36% $91.89 $80.70
ACIA AMC $43.55 1,095,850 21.4% $42.45 $42.16
ATVI AMC $61.45 6,747,220 6.18% $61.21 $59.52
BZUN AMC $33.69 2,057,080 6.00% $31.39 $27.85
ED AMC $82.38 1,433,790 0.92% $81.82 $82.58
FLR AMC $44.58 1,367,280 5.48% $45.23 $45.22
FLT AMC $152.05 1,392,110 7.11% $149.71 $146.96
GRUB AMC $46.64 2,000,890 15.71% $45.84 $45.29
KHC AMC $87.64 2,742,920 1.85% $86.41 $86.29
LNT AMC $40.47 1,263,870 0.89% $40.62 $40.65
MCHP AMC $80.70 2,449,980 4.63% $81.48 $79.59
MNST AMC $53.41 2,179,650 5.51% $52.59 $51.55
MSI AMC $91.01 1,002,970 3.44% $90.17 $88.95
NBIX AMC $49.46 1,089,840 2.47% $48.02 $47.75
RDUS AMC $42.13 1,261,550 4.49% $42.98 $44.20
REG AMC $66.16 1,203,800 1.68% $64.64 $63.34
SPNC AMC $38.45 1,410,670 4.59% $38.45 $34.03
VIAB AMC $35.66 5,506,300 3.52% $35.49 $34.73
WTW AMC $37.16 1,262,280 12.71% $37.30 $34.96
YELP AMC $33.02 3,568,720 13.69% $32.29 $31.06

 

Friday, August 4: 

Economic: July Employment Situation – 8:30, International Trade – 8:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.

Other: Bank of England Announcement and Minutes – 7:00AM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
BAH BMO $34.26 1,285,830 4.56% $33.66 $33.20
CBOE BMO $93.49 1,122,270 1.87% $93.17 $91.52
HSBC BMO $48.90 1,703,710 4.21% $48.44 $46.39
NWL BMO $52.07 3,624,170 6.35% $53.18 $53.09
TSN BMO $63.00 2,769,960 6.14% $61.86 $61.08

 

Monday, August 7: 

Economic: Gallup US Consumer Pending Measure – 8:30, Labor Market Conditions Index – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

International Economic: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00AM.

Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the America’s Cotton Marketing Cooperatives 2017 Conference in Nashville, with audience and media Q&A – 11:45AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to take part in a moderated audience Q&A session at the Sioux Falls Rotary Club event in Sioux Falls, SD – 1:25PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL B/A 7/28 Close AVGVOL AVG MOVE SMA 10 50% FIB
KITE BMO $111.43 1,270,970 10.48% $107.68 $103.11
ALB AMC $116.50 1,137,630 4.26% $117.85 $111.67

 

Follow Stocks & Jocks on Twitter — Follow Frank Fahey on Twitter