Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 8.28-9.4.2017

August 28, 2017

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“Money is made by sitting, not trading.” – Jesse Livermore

“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies, most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman

“Computers have enabled people to make more mistakes faster than almost any invention in history, with the possible exception of tequila and handguns.” – Mitch Ratcliffe

“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis

 

The truncated, end-of-summer, version of the Prepared Mind. The weekly numbers and economic calendar are here but without commentary.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:

Index	25-Aug	Change	% Weekly	2017 YTD	Volatility of Index
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA)	21813.67	139.16	0.64%	10.38%	11.19% (VXD)
S&P 500 (SPX)	2442.25	16.70	0.69%	9.11%	11.28% (VIX)
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)	5822.53	31.62	0.55%	19.72%	15.52% (VXN)
Russell 2000 (RUT)	1377.45	19.66	1.45%	1.50%	15.68% (RVX)
S&P 100 (OEX)	1080.02	6.50	0.61%	8.94%	12.91% (VXO)
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN)	4400.21	18.31	0.42%	8.61%	NA
Crude Oil (CLV7)	47.86	(1.04)	-2.13%	-11.19%	10.28%(OVX)
Gold (GCZ7)	1296.50	6.20	0.48%	12.54%	12.63 (GVZ)
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)	11.28	(2.98)	-20.90%	NA

Data Source: OptionVue8

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Indexes	Ticker	25-Aug	18-Aug	Change	% Change
CBOE Volatility Index	VIX	11.28	14.26	(2.98)	-20.90%
VIX September Future (9/20/2017)	VXU7	13.075	14.975	(1.90)	-12.69%
VIX October Future (10/18/2017)	VXV7	14.025	15.125	(1.10)	-7.27%
VIX November Future (11/15/2017)	VXX7	14.425	15.375	(0.95)	-6.18%
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index	VXST	8.97	13.17	(4.20)	-31.89%
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index	VXV	13.99	15.65	(1.66)	-10.61%
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month)	VXMT	15.42	16.38	(0.96)	-5.86%
VIX of VIX	VVIX	93.53	114.39	(20.86)	-18.24%
CBOE SKEW Index	SKEW	130.16	128.86	1.30	1.01%
Long VIX ETP’s
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF	UVXY	30.88	38.97	(8.09)	-20.76%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN	VXX	47.68	53.20	(5.52)	-10.38%
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF	VIXY	39.63	44.19	(4.56)	-10.32%
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN	VXZ	21.86	22.51	(0.65)	-2.89%
Inverse VIX ETP’s
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF	SVXY	77.96	70.66	7.30	10.33%
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN	XIV	81.32	73.89	7.43	10.06%
Velocity Shares Daily VIX Midterm ETN	ZIV	71.57	69.68	1.89	2.71%

Data Source: OptionVue8

As August comes to a close, reports will be released for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the second estimate of U.S. second-quarter GDP, motor vehicle sales, and the employment situation. Important inflation data includes PCE price indexes as part of Thursday’s personal income and outlays report. Other important data includes advance trade in goods on Monday and also home sales on Thursday. Consumer confidence on Tuesday and consumer sentiment on Friday, bring consumer psychology onto focus . Hurricane Harvey, North Korea, and the debt ceiling are in play as wild cards for the upcoming week.

This earnings season winds down this the week. The highlights include: G-III Apparel, Scansource, H&R Blockm Movado, Hain Celestial, Best Buy, Shoe Carnival, Dytech, Bob Evans Farms, Chico’s. Brown-Forman, Analog Devices, Vera Bradley, Campbell Soup, Dollar General, Oxford Industries, Genesco and Ciena. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

 

“A man without ethics is a wild beast loosed upon this world.” – Albert Camus

“The hurricane complicates things in that what would have been purely a business decision becomes a decision of the heart.” – Henry Cisneros

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan

“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore

“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre

 

Monday, August 28: 

Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30.

International Economic: Japan Unemployment Rate – 7:30 PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL	B/A	8/25 CLOSE	AVGVOL	AVG MOVE	SMA 10	50% FIB
PRXL	AMC	$87.70	1,079,620	7.32%	$87.69	$87.52

 

Tuesday, August 29: 

Economic: Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index – 9:00, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00.

International: France GDP – 2:45 AM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL	B/A	8/25 CLOSE	AVGVOL	AVG MOVE	SMA 10	50% FIB
BBY	BMO	$61.87	3,803,170	14.81%	$60.80	$58.15
HAIN	BMO	$40.40	2,422,470	4.36%	$42.08	$42.40

 

Wednesday, August 30:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, GDP = 8:30, Corporate Profits – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00 AM, Germany CPI – 8:00 AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50 PM.

Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled “The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms,” as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15 AM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL	B/A	8/25 CLOSE	AVGVOL	AVG MOVE	SMA 10	50% FIB
ADI	BMO	$78.97	3,333,630	2.84%	$78.94	$78.86
CTRP	AMC	$52.48	3,795,810	4.54%	$51.71	$54.83
FIVE	AMC	$50.34	1,080,210	5.57%	$48.80	$48.63
KEYS	AMC	$39.82	1,108,750	1.90%	$40.56	$41.28
WDAY	AMC	$103.57	1,414,370	7.63%	$103.27	$101.79

 

Thursday. August 31: 

Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00 AM, France PPI & CPI – 2:45 AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 3:55 AM, Eurozone Unemployment Rate – 5:00 AM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45 PM.

Earnings:

SYMBOL	B/A	8/25 CLOSE	AVGVOL	AVG MOVE	SMA 10	50% FIB
CPB	BMO	$51.40	1,594,050	4.59%	$53.51	$52.88
DG	BMO	$77.67	3,096,050	7.41%	$75.37	$75.36
MBLY	BMO	$63.25	2,642,620	2.79%	$63.23	$62.99
TD	BMO	$51.94	1,261,150	0.64%	$50.98	$51.16
AMBA	AMC	$52.98	1,018,910	8.15%	$51.52	$51.58
LULU	AMC	$60.21	2,548,280	15.14%	$59.61	$60.73
PANW	AMC	$128.63	1,551,780	15.43%	$131.05	$133.78
RH	AMC	$45.43	2,441,390	15.46%	$49.38	$62.44

 

Friday, September 1: 

Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

 

Monday, September 4: 

U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed. 

International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00 AM.

 

Tuesday, September 5: 

Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.

International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00 PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00 PM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

 

Follow Stocks & Jocks on Twitter — Follow Frank Fahey on Twitter