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Kevin O’Neill: The Fine-Tuned Machine (Revisited)

May 22, 2017


When I was young, I worked for a man named George Butvilas. George was a Vice President at American National Bank in Chicago when I first met him. I worked for George four different times, but my fondest memories are tied to that first staff position I had working for him at American National’s Tel-A-Data subsidiary when I was in my mid-twenties.

We had a weekly one-on-one meeting, and I don’t think one of these passed without George imparting a nugget of management wisdom. Inevitably, one of our meeting topics led to, “Kevin, this is Management Lesson Number…” Other than management lesson #1 (Hire good people), I’m certain the numbers were randomly chosen in the moment; but the wisdom always was a nugget of pure gold.

Now I’m old, and I have some nuggets of my own to share; so suspend your political point of view, and suspend your opinion of Trump himself. The context is political, but this is Management Lesson #24 for aspiring leaders.

Three months ago, President Trump claimed that his administration was operating like a fine-tuned machine; and three months ago, I told you why that was impossible under the best of circumstances.

Whether you embrace the Tuckman model or you evaluate your team’s development on a less structured continuum from immature to mature, leaders must (a) understand where their teams are and (b) adapt their behavior to provide what their teams needs to progress. Clearly Trump didn’t understand his team when I wrote the blog entry three months ago, and he might not understand any better now.

Prolonged chaos is the result – inconsistent messaging, leaks as staff members vie for power and chase their own agendas, etc. The administration is in the worst possible place, stuck on storming with no end in sight.

Leading a team is a skill entirely different from making deals or having popular ideas. It’s hard work. It’s a challenge, even for experienced leaders. If the leader can’t or doesn’t do it well, luck is the only way a team can become cohesive.

The CEO/COO model is an alternative. It’s what worked for Bill Clinton after two years of storming during his first term. Leon Panetta replaced longtime FoB Mack McLarty, redirected the team to the Clinton agenda, and created a functioning administration.

Clearly Reince Preiebus doesn’t have control of the team. That shouldn’t be a big surprise for those who paid attention to his time at the RNC. Unless you think his last act was getting Trump elected which I’d say happened despite the RNC, Priebus’ last act was the attempt to engineer a victory for Jeb Bush.

Media creatures are reporting rumors about personnel changes when Trump returns from World Tour 2017. Only one change matters. See what Trump does with his COO spot, the Chief of Staff. With media, Democrats, and a portion of the Republican party opposing him, he needs his Executive Branch in his corner. The Chief of Staff has that responsibility.

We’ll see.

 

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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 5.22-5.30.2017

May 22, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

Everything is contingent, and there is also chaos. Spalding Gray

“Chaos is a friend of mine.” – Bob Dylan

“Does not everything depend on our interpretation of the silence around us?” – Lawrence Durrell

The blog will focus on numbers and “facts.” This is a very frustrating market. My trading discipline is the result of thirty years of daily immersion in equities and their derivative markets. The major variables have always been price movement, volatility, volume, market trends and news This is year has a new variable has been added. Every decision I make is tempered by the unknown variable – a wild card. This unpredictability arises from the, often contradictory, statements of Donald Trump. This will be, yet, another week when where I have to try and define the impact of the unknown variable. Be wary, be nimble.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:

Data Source: OptionVue8

VIX futures show little change at the end of the week despite the S&P 500 have its largest downward swoon of the year. The unknown variable on Pennsylvania Avenue is forcing traders to be very nimble.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Data Source: OptionVue8

The last full week of May brings reports on existing home sales, new home sales, and durable goods. In addition, the Fed will release the minutes of its last meeting. However, the focus will be in the chaos and disorganization inside the Beltway.

It has been a strong earnings season. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include Nordson, Agilent, Toll Brothers, Autozone, intuit, Eaton Vance, Advance Auto Parts, Tiffany, HP, Guess?, Williams Sonoma, Lowe’s, Dollar Tree, Hormel Foods, Gamestop, Medtronic , Ulta Beauty, Toro, Costco, Best Buy and Big Lots.

 

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“I like an element of chaos in music. That feeling is the best thing ever, as long as you don’t have too much of it.” – Jeff Beck

“The aim of education is the knowledge, not of facts, but of values.” – William S. Burroughs

“All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perceptions and arbitrary values.” – Marshall McLuhan

Monday, May 22:

Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30.

International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari will deliver welcoming remarks at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 10:00AM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to discuss “the Link Between Physical and Economic Wellbeing” at the Jefferson College of Health Professions and Jefferson College of Pharmacy Commencement Ceremony in Philadelphia – 10:00AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a media Q&A at the Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 6:45PM, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will deliver the dinner keynote speech at the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute Conference in Minneapolis – 7:00PM, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak about “The Roles of Opportunity and Inclusion in Strengthening the U.S. Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis conference on Opportunity and Inclusive Growth in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 7:30PM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans will speak at the Symposium on OTC Derivatives – 58th Shanghai Clearing House Forum on Policy and Practice-Default Management, a private event closed to the media, but remarks are to be posted at the ChicagoFed.org website, in Shanghai China – 9:10PM.

Earnings:

 

Tuesday, May 23:

Economic: Redbook – 8:55, New Home sales – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00.

International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 12:30AM, Germany GDP – 2:00AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in in a conversation about “Homeownership in Indian Country” at the CICD Roundtable – A Conversation about Building Economic Well-Being for Native Communities through Homeownership, in Minneapolis – 3:15PM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to give a presentation, with audience and Q&A in New York – 5:00PM.

Earnings:

 

Wednesday, May 24:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, PMI Composite Flash 0 9:45, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30, FOMC Minutes – 2:00.

International Economic: No major announcements.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at the Town Hall Forum in Ashland, Wisconsin, with audience Q&A – 6:00PM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to give a presentation, with audience and Q&A in New York – 5:00PM.

Earnings:

 

Thursday, May 25:

Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic: Great Britain GDP – 4:30AM.

Other: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard to participate in a panel discussion on global economic issues at the Center for Global Development’s Voices of Experience: A conversation with former Treasury Under Secretaries for International Affairs in Washington, with audience Q&A – 10:00AM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session at the C.D. Howe Institute Annual Directors’ Dinner, with audience Q&A – 6:00PM, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to present on the topic of “U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at Keio University in Tokyo, with audience and media Q&A – 10:00PM.

Earnings:

 

Friday, May 26:

Economic: Durable Goods Orders – 8:30Am, GDP – 8:30, Corporate Profits – 8:30, Consumer Sentiment = 10:00Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: No major Announcements.

Other: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to deliver the keynote address at the Symposium on Asian Banking and Finance: Risk and Resilience in Global Finance in Singapore, with media and audience Q&A – 8:15PM,

Earnings:

 

Monday, May 29:

US Holiday – Memorial Day – Markets Closed

International Economic: Japan Household Spending and Unemployment Rate – 7:30PM.

 

Tuesday, May 30:

Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Consumer Confidence – 9:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

International Economic: France GDP – 2:45AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00AM, Germany CPI – 8:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM, Chinan CFLP Manufacturing PMI = 9:00PM.

Earnings:

 

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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 5.15-5.22.2017

May 15, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“There are nights when the wolves are silent and only the moon howls” – George Carlin

“Silence is so freaking loud” – Sarah Dessen

“Does not everything depend on our interpretation of the silence around us?” – Lawrence Durrell

It is quiet. This is a short entry befitting the activity of the past week. I need to channel my inner Alfred E. Neuman. His signature phrase, “What, me worry?” is easily applied to the current US equity markets. The market continues to shrug off every piece of piece of negative news.

Ever sell-off is a buying opportunity. The markets have become a never-ending big yawn. President Trump fires FBI Director James Comey – yawn. North Korea test intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic bombs – yawn. Syria uses chemical weapons on their own citizens – yawn. It seems there is nothing of sufficient gravity to roil the stock markets.

In 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has on had four moves of 1% or more in either direction. This is the lowest number of 1% moves to start a year since 1965. Volatility continues to trend lower. The markets are quiet, perhaps too quiet. In movies, silence can speak louder than any use of sound. Ignore the silence at your own risk. The lack of noise can distance a trader from the market. Listen! Remain engaged and nimble.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:

Volatility is still flirting with historic lows. Russell Rhoda of the CBOE trade of the week as a as a MOAVCS (Mother of all VIX Call Spreads). On Tuesday, 195,000 VIX bullish June 30/35 call spreads were purchased for a net cost of 0.06.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Data Source: OptionVue8

The third week of May will be quiet – Housing Starts and Industrial Production. The wild card remains the political situation in Washington, D.C. However, chaos in D.C. does not appear to have any correlation with chaos in the markets.

The earnings season is starting to wind down. The earnings highlight will be Wal-Mart Stores’ release of first quarter earnings. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Other earnings highlights include Staples, TJX, Home Depot, Urban Outfitters, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Synopsys, Cisco, Flowers Foods, Ross Stores, Ralph Lauren, Foot Locker, and Deere & Co.

 

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Patience, Grasshopper” – Master Po

“If you do not actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you.” – Tom Gib

“Lying is done with words, and, also, with silence.” – Adrienne Rich

“The easy way out usually leads back in.” – Peter Senge

“Silence about a thing just magnifies it.” – Tennessee Williams

Monday, May 15:

Economic: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Housing Market Index – 10:00.

International Economic: China PPI and Import Price Index – 3:15AM.

Earnings:

 

Tuesday, May 16:

Economic: Housing Starts – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, Industrial production – 9:15, E-Commerce Retail Sales – 10:00.

International Economic: Japan Tertiary Index – 12:30AM, Great Britain CPI and PPI – 4:30AM, Eurozone GDP Flash and Merchandise Trade – 5:00AM.

Earnings:

 

Wednesday, May 17:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: Great Britain Labour Market Report – 4:30AM, Eurozone HICP – 5:00AM, Japan GDP – 7:50, China Home Price Index – 8:30PM.

Earnings:

 

Thursday, May 18:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Survey – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic: Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30AM, Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash – 10:00.

Other: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota in Minneapolis – 1:15PM.

Earnings:

 

Friday, May 19:

Economic: Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: Germany PPI – 2:00AM,
Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to present on “U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the Association for Corporate Growth St. Louis Chapter Washington University in St. Louis, held in St. Louis, with audience and media Q&A. – 9:15AM.

Earnings:

 

Monday, May 22:

Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30.

International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM.

Earnings:

 

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Kevin O’Neill: Keep It Simple, Stupid

May 8, 2017


From ‘Stocks and Jocks’ on Friday, May 5th 2017…

Tom Haugh: I have a question for you two mavens regarding the way government works; and Matty, please opine as well. I’ll go back to Lyndon Johnson’s war on poverty. If you just would have taken the money we spent in the war on poverty, and all the people’s fingers in the pie along the way, and divided it by the amount of poor people and sent them a check, we wouldn’t have had any poor people. In this particular situation with Obamacare we had 20 million people that didn’t have insurance. Why the hell couldn’t we have just bought them insurance? I gotta believe in the long run it would have been a hell of a lot cheaper, but we can never do something like that… Someday, somewhere you’ll hear people say that we went from 20 million people uninsured to 80 million people underinsured. It seems like we never can go directly to the source… Why can’t we ever do the simplest thing?

Wayne Madsen: One reason is that you don’t want to be sending individuals checks because they have no guarantee they’ll use that money for what it’s intended. It’s like the old story about someone who lives in the hills of West Virginia and doesn’t have a dime to their name and wins the Powerball lottery. Then they go back five years later and the individual is not in a mansion but is back in the same double-wide trailer with no money because he spent it all.

Of course we can do the simplest thing, and I’m here to tell you how.

The Math

The Obama Administration claimed 20 million people have been added to the rolls of people covered by insurance since ACA passed. It’s a debatable number for two reasons. We don’t know how many people enrolled via Obamacare exchanges after their existing plans were canceled; and we don’t know how many people logged on, enrolled, and never paid a premium or let policies lapse after being unable to afford their premiums after a few payments.

But let’s not quibble. I’ll go with 20 million.

The most recent 10-year CBO score said Obamacare is costing $2.004 trillion, that is to say $200.4 billion per year. That means we’re paying $10,200 per person enrolled per year just to have them enrolled. Taking it to monthly cost, we’re spending $835 per person per month just to get the 20 million people enrolled. They still have to pay their premiums.

Some of those premiums are subsidized to the tune of $56 billion per year, so let’s take that off of the enrollment cost and call it the largesse of taxpayers. That lowers the monthly cost of enrollment per person to $602.

Think about that. A good policy could be had for $200 per month before Obamacare, and a deluxe policy might have cost as much as $400 per month. Now we’re paying $602 per month just to get people to sign up, and we’re patting ourselves on the back for it.

That leads us back to Mr. Haugh’s question. Why can’t we do the simplest thing? Why can’t we just buy insurance for those who can’t afford it? And while we were at it, why couldn’t we have left everyone else alone instead of imposing substantially higher premiums and deductibles on them?

If being sure the money is spent on health care is the problem, I have a solution… and easy and obvious solution.

I tired of explaining my position repeatedly during health care debate #1 back in 2009 and 2010, so I committed my thoughts to a document I could share. I’m convinced more than ever that it’s the direction we should go. Read it for the full reasoning. Here’s the proposal.

Health Savings Accounts

Make the following changes to HSAs:

  1. Allow insurance premium payments from HSAs.
  2. Fund HSAs directly for those who qualify for government health benefits, and let recipients choose their own insurance carriers and plans. This will reduce the cost of getting people enrolled dramatically; and if we need to turn some of that cost reduction into education about buying insurance, money is better spent creating well educated consumers.
  3. Encode HSA debit cards to be designated as such, and restrict purchases using those cards to insurance premiums, medical care, prescription drugs, and over the counter health care items. This will prevent HSA owners from misusing funds. Debit cards have special encoding, so that part is built into the credit card processing system just waiting to be activated; and every purchase item has a UPC bar code. We aren’t inventing here. We’re using existing functionality.

But there’s more.

If people can use HSAs to buy insurance, insurance can easily be uncoupled from employment. That eliminates the biggest reason for the pre-existing condition problem – loss of insurance because of job loss or job change. People will be able to buy individual policies that remain in force as long as they pay premiums; and as an alternative, they should be able to buy group policies via non-employment affiliations that aren’t transient.

That doesn’t mean employers shouldn’t or can’t provide health care benefits. They would be welcome, even encouraged by competition for talent, to make contributions to their employees’ HSAs. This is an arrangement employers should love. Provide a health care benefit without all of the expenses related to offering several insurance options to employees, and don’t worry about being a referee every time an employee has a dispute with the carrier.

Other Benefits

Aside from lowering the government’s overhead cost, funneling more spending through HSAs actually can bend the cost curve. That’s a promise Obamacare hasn’t kept.

‘Stocks and Jocks’ contributor Karl Denninger has written extensively about eliminating unnecessary health care costs via rational administrative expenses, better health habits, and other solid ideas. I’d like to add the notion of lowering premium costs by building an HSA balance; and by proposing that everyone including poor people will have HSAs, it’s a benefit that would accrue to one and all.

It’s simple… At least is was simple before Obamacare drove up the price of everyone’s insurance. Higher deductibles mean lower premiums. As an HSA builds a balance that would be used to pay a deductible, the owner can lower his premium by purchasing a higher deductible plan. Build a $5,000 balance; buy a plan with a $5,000 deductible. Build a $10,000 balance because you haven’t had a major medical expense for years; buy a plan with a $10,000 deductible. Build the balance over the course of a typical adult’s lifetime and maybe it won’t cost so much to have insurance in the time between qualifying for the senior discount at the buffet and qualifying for Medicare.

Simplicity

It’s a simple solution. It’s less expensive. It solves problems. It gives consumers more freedom.

Too bad the government is involved. It will never happen.

 

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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 5.8-5.15.2017

May 8, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“Democrats never agree on anything, that’s why they’re Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they’d be Republicans.”.” – Will Rogers

“A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance.” –  Hunter S. Thompson

“The Euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves.” –  Marie Le Pen

“France is back.” – Emmanuel Macron 

Last week ended with two of the three major indexes hitting new highs.  The S&P 500 rose 14.80 to close at 2399.92 – a new all-time high, The NASDAQ Composite gained nearly 1%, closing at an all-time high of, advancing 6100.76.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the laggard.  The DJIA advanced 0.3% to close just above 21,000.  The small cap dominated Russell 2000 continued to underperform when compared to larger cap indices.

Financial talking heads are using the VIX to fan the fires of concern about an impending market sell off.    It seems every market pundit has a “fact” about the VIX or S&P 500 volatility which portends the risk of the end of the bull market.  As of the close this past Thursday, the S&P 500 had gone 7 days without a move of 0.2% in either direction.  According to Bespoke Investment, this was only the fifth time the SPX had ever gone as many days with so little movement.  This concern was followed by a 0,4% gain on Friday.  The VIX hit a post Financial Crisis low of 9.90 on Monday, while again dipping below 10 on Friday.

The weakness in the VIX and the lack of movement in the major indices are not predictors of market direction.  The greatest challenge for me as a trader is avoiding complacency.  Trading requires patience and a sense of urgency.  Trading has been described by long periods of boredom interrupted by moments of panic.  The lethargy of a quiet market can rob a trader of the sense of urgency required to prepare for the reaction required for moments of panic. Hunter S. Thompson summed it up with““A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance.”

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:

Low implied volatility is a basic fact of current markets.  Low statistical volatility (movement of the underlying) and low implied volatility (reflected in premium levels of options) are forcing options traders to reevaluate the strategies being used.  The viability of any option strategy must be evaluated against change in time, movement in the price of the underlying and changes in implied volatility of the options.  Low levels in volatility forces the option trader to find strategies fitting their risk/reward comfort zone.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

Will inflation return in May?  April price readings will be released this week; import and export prices will be released on Wednesday, while the Producer Price Index will be released on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index will be released on Friday.  Economists and investors will be looking for stability in prices and a number near the Fed’s 2% target.

Strong profit reports, along with conference calls with positive forecasts, continue to be a driving force behind stocks moving upward.  First quarter earnings announcement will continue the next two weeks.   Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy.  The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.   The earnings highlights this week, for widely held and actively traded stocks, are:  Newell Brands, Tyson Foods, Marriott, Trip Advisor, Walt Disney, AON, Priceline, Allergan, NVIDIA, Mylan, Whole Foods, Vulcan Materials, Perrigo, Nordstrom, Kohl’s Macy’s and JC Penney.

 

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Patience, Grasshopper” – Master Po

“If you do not actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you.”  – Tom Gib

“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position where you cannot live to fight another day.” – Dick Fuld

“The easy way out usually leads back in.” – Peter Senge

“In a closed society where everybody’s guilty, the only crime is getting caught. In a world of thieves, the only final sin is stupidity.”- Hunter S. Thompson

 

Monday, May 8: 

Economic:  Labor Conditions Index – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30PM.

International Economic:  Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.

Other:  St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to speak at a policy session held the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s 22nd Annual Financial Markets Conference on “Shifting Sands of Low Interest Rates” in Fernandina Beach, Florida, with audience Q&A – 8:35AM,  Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester speaks about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Public Breakfast Program — From Main Street to Wall Street: Economic Growth, Monetary Policy, and the Federal Reserve, in Chicago IL, with audience and media Q&A, 8:45AM.

 

Tuesday, May 9: 

Economic:   NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 6:00, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00. Wholesale Trade – 10:00.

International Economic:  Germany Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade – 2:00AM, China CPI and PPI – 9:30PM.

Other:  Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren will be the Keynote Speaker at the Risk Management for Commercial Real Estate Conference being held at the NYU Stern School of Business in New York, New York – 1:00PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to speak at the Dallas Regional Chamber Lower Middle Market Investment Summit in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 4:15PM.

Earnings:

 

Wednesday, May 10: 

Economic:  MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic:  France Merchandise Trade – 2:45AM.

Other:  Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren will be the Keynote Speaker at a joint meeting of the Lake Champlain Regional Chamber and Central Vermont Chamber of Commerce in South Burlington, VT – 12:00PM.

 

Thursday, May 11: 

Economic:  Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, PPI-FD – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic:  Great Britain Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade – 4:30AM, Bank of England Announcement and Minutes.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley speaks on the Benefits and Challenges from Globalization at the Interaction with President Dudley event held by the U.S. India Business Council, the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai, India, with audience Q&A – 8:30AM.

 

Friday, May 12: 

Economic:  CPI – 8:30, Retail Sales = 8:30, Business Inventories – 10:00 Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: Germany CPI and GDP Flash – 2:00AM, Eurozone Industrial Production – 5:00AM.

Other: Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans speaks about current economic conditions and monetary policy in panel discussion, with audience and media Q&A, at the 56th ACI Financial Markets Association World Conference in Dublin, Ireland – 9:00AM, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick T. Harker to speak about “Economic Outlook” at the Drexel University Urban Economics Policy Conference in Philadelphia, with audience and media Q&A – 12:30PM.

Earnings:  None meeting criteria.

 

Sunday, May 14: 

International Economic:  China Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales – 10:00PM.

 

Monday, May 15: 

Economic:  Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Housing Market Index – 10:00.

International Economic:  No major announcements.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

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