Blog: All posts by Tom Haugh
This Island Earth
By Tom Haugh on May 10, 2010
Good morning. Wild and down market last week, with the SPY closing down 7.55 (or 6.4%) to close at 111.26. The VIX spiked up 85% to close at 40.95, signifying that the cost to protect positions had risen dramatically, and actually closed Friday night very close to the high. In addition the market had a nightmare day on Thursday, with the markets spiking down and coming virtually unglued for a brief time in the afternoon. Investigations are abounding, and should show that the entire market structure needs to be looked at very strongly and honestly, but I am not holding out any hope for real reform.
Look In The Mirror
By Tom Haugh on May 3, 2010
Good morning. Negative week for the market last week, with the SPY’s finishing down 2.87 to close at 121.73 (2.3%). The VIX had a huge move up of 32%, from 16.62 to 22.05. This followed some sliding markets overseas as mounting concerns of a major China real estate bubble continued, as well as the Central Banks in Europe limping towards a bailout of the debt ridden Greek economy.
Goldman Sachs
By Tom Haugh on April 19, 2010
Good morning. It was a very interesting close to the week last Friday, with the combined Google earnings disappointment and the civil complaint lodged against Goldman Sachs affecting the market. Still, the SPY managed to close only slightly down on the week at 119.36. That represents a loss of only .19 or .2%.
The Fred Sanford Way
By Tom Haugh on April 12, 2010
Good morning. Another positive week for the market last week, as the market has continued to creep up steadily since the correction low of 104.58 on February 5. Last week the SPY was up 1.25 to close at 119.55, a gain of 1.5%. Interestingly, the VIX, which has been trending steadily down as the market has advanced, had a fairly strong advance on the week, closing up 9% at 17.46.
Mental Midgets and More
By Tom Haugh on March 29, 2010
Good morning. Another quiet week in terms of volatility last week, but again the market did finish with a gain. The SPY was up fractionally again, gaining .61 to close at 116.58. At times, both Thursday and Friday, it looked like there was a chance of a real upside breakout, but late sell-offs dampened the mood. On Thursday, for instance, the SPY traded all the way up to 118.17 before closing near the day’s lows at 116.65. Normally that would be the sign of a tired market, but any attempt at a sell-off seems to be met by buyers below the market (at least so far). The VIX was actually up on the week, although fractionally, closing up .82 to 17.77. If anything, the upward skew in the implied volatility going forward worsened, and it remains significantly more expensive, in terms of implied volatility, to buy far out protective puts than it does to buy anything near term. For example, in AT&T (trading $26.24), the January 25 puts of 2012 are trading for a 23 implied volatility vs. the near term April 26 options at a 15 implied volatility. I am not sure what sort of relative carnage or volatility spike the market is collectively expecting going forward, but it is sure priced in.