Blog
A Little Revolution…
May 18, 2009
Good morning. The market had its first losing week in a while last week, but not horrible. The SPY was down 4.27 on the week, from 92.98 to 88.71, leaving it down 4.5% on the week and 1.7% on the year. Some of the sell-off last week was due to a huge supply of new issues, as many of the large banks and some others went out to raise new capital. The good news is that most were able to find new sources of capital at these levels, so at a lower level the market is still performing its main function, providing capital to those firms in need.
Conundrums and Stress Tests
May 11, 2009
Good morning. It was yet another solid week for the market, especially big caps, last week. The SPY had a very strong move from 97.89 to 92.98, or 5.8% (and now positive on the year), and the Industrials were up 4.4%, from 8,212 to 8,575. The QQQQ’s, however, were actually down slightly on the week, from 34.37 to 34.23. To some extent the rally was concentrated in oils and financials, and the de-coupling with the QQQQ’s may signal that some caution should be considered after the rapid run-up. The VIX continues to show an increased comfort in the market, as it was down over 10% on the week, from 35.29 to 32.04.
Bank Stress Test
May 8, 2009
I was interviewed by Jack Conaty of Fox News Chicago on May 7th with regard to the recent Bank Stress Test.
Don’t Drink the Water
May 4, 2009
Good morning. A mostly sane and slightly positive week last week, with the SPY up from 86.66 to 87.89, or 1.4%. The relative sanity was reflected in the continuing drop in the VIX, from 36.81 to 35.29, or 4.16%. You would need to go back to last September to find the VIX this low, and again it is an indication that investors are starting to feel (rightly or wrongly) that some positive things are starting to happen and maybe the worst is behind us.
An Oligopoly Outbreak
April 27, 2009
Good morning. Two solid days for the market last Thursday and Friday almost brought the SPY into the positive for the week, but the rally fell short at 86.66, leaving the SPY down .74, or less than 1%, on the week. There was a fairly significant increase in the VIX, up from 33.93 to 36.81, possibly due to a combination of concerns involving financial stress tests and a possible worldwide flu outbreak.