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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 6.19-6.26.2017

June 19, 2017


“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“Experience traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” – Alan Farley

“It will not always be summer; build barns.” – Hesiod

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations,
or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” – John Adams

The market generally goes on its annual summer hiatus starting on July 4th. The annual summer doldrums seem to have hit the market a couple works earlier than usual this year. It seems like this annual event started a couple of months earlier than normal.

The Dow Jones Industrials set multiple records while ending the week at record high – 21,384.28. Weaker economic reports seem to have little effect on the seemingly inexorable upward move. Be nimble

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:

Data Source: OptionVue8

The CBOE Short-term Volatility Index (VXST) was down nearly 20% this past week. The VXST uses nearby and second nearby options with at least 1 day left to expiration and then weights them to yield a constant, nine-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. This level for the VXST shows a lowered expectation of short-term movement for the S&P 500 movement.

Data Source: OptionVue8

The week of June 19 includes reports on existing home sales and new home sales. The prior week’s steep decline inhousing starts and permits have lowered expectations for this week’s reports. A small, yet healthy, increase is expected in the FHFA House Price Index. The coming week should be devoid of any international economic reports with the capability of of moving the markets.

This earnings season is over. There are few more earnings announcements this week than last week. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include Adobe Systems, Lennar, HB Fuller, LA-Z Boy, Fedex, CARMAX, Winnebago, Sonic, Barnes&Noble, Carnival, Hain Celestial, and Bed Bath & Beyond

Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“The purpose of technology is not to confuse the brain but to serve the body.” – – William S. Burroughs

“I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over.
Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can’t see from the center.” Kurt Vonnegut
 
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan

“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts,
you’ve wasted 10 minutes” Peter Lynch

 

Monday, June 19:

Economic: No major announcements.

International Economic: No major announcements.

Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak at the Business Roundtable Meeting held by the North Country Chamber of Commerce and North Country Regional Economic Development Council, in Plattsburg, NY – 8:00AM, President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans will speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Money Marketeers of New York University event in New York City, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

Tuesday, June 20:

Economic: Current Account – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.

International Economic: Germany PPI – 2:00AM, Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.

Other: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer to deliver keynote speech at the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam – 3:15AM, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren to speak about “Bad zero: Financial Stability in a Low Interest Rate Environment” at the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam – 8:15AM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to discuss current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco – 3:00PM.

Earnings:

 

Wednesday, June 21:

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.

International Economic: No major announcements

Other: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM,

Earnings:

 

Thursday, June 22:

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas Cit Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00AMMoney Supply – 4:30.

International Economic: Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Survey – 2:00AM.

Earnings:

 

Friday, June 23:

Economic: PMI Composite Flash – 9:45, New Home Sales – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic: France GDP – 2:45AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30Am, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM.

Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Illinois Bankers Association Annual Conference in Nashville, TN – 11:15, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to be the keynote speaker at The Policy Summit on Housing, Human Capital and Inequality: Transforming Regional Economies: Growth and Equity through Policy and Practice, with audience and media Q&A, in Cleveland, Ohio – 12:40PM, Federal Reserve Board Gov. Jerome Powell to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Symposium on Central Clearing, with audience Q&A – 2:15PM.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

Monday, June 26:

Economic: Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.

International Economic: No major announcements.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.

 

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