Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 7.3-7.10.2017

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.”  – Alan Farley

“You weren’t thinking and you weren’t paying attention, either. People who don’t pay attention often get stuck in the Doldrums.”  – Norman Juster

“A free press can, of course, be good or bad, but, most certainly without freedom, the press will never be anything but bad.” – Albert Camus


A shortened trading week and a shortened blog.

The story for the first half of the year is very simple.  All major world equity markets, except for Canada, were up.  For the week, stocks were down in Europe and the U.S., but mixed in Asia.

Here is an overview of the U.S. market behavior last week and for 2017:

Data Source: OptionVue8

The VIX was above 15 for a moment this past week.  It reached this level while the S&P 500 flirted with 2400. The start performer for the week was the VXST which was up 18.50% for the week.  Generally, the VIX and related products show weakness before a holiday shortened trading week.  This past Friday was an aberration.

Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:

It will be a short trading week.  U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday July 4.  The abbreviated trading week brings reports on factory orders as well as the Employment Situation.   The week includes the release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting.  The wild card Will be the meeting G20 industrialized nations starting on Friday in Hamburg, Germany.

This one of the quietest earnings weeks of the year.   The traditional start of a quarterly earnings season is the earnings announcement by Alcoa (NYSE:AA).  This announcement will take place after the market close on  Wednesday, July 19, 2017. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy.  The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.  Earnings highlights for the coming week include International Speedway, Herman Miller and AZZ Inc.


Advice to stimulate your imagination:

“Don’t wait. The time will never be just right.” – Napoleon Hill

“Inflation is the crabgrass in your savings.” – Robert Orben

“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan

“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted 10 minutes” Peter Lynch


Monday, July 3:

Economic:  Motor Vehicle Sales, Gallup Consumer Spending Measure – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00.

International Economic: Germany PMI Manufacturing – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00AM, Eurozone Unemployment Rate – 5:00AM.

Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to deliver the keynote address at the Applications of Behavioural Economics, and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy Conference in London – 4:35Am.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.


Tuesday, July 4:

Independence Day – All U.S. Markets Closed

International – Eurozone – PPI – 5:00AM, China – General Service PMI – 9:45.


Wednesday, July 5:

Economic:  MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Gallup US Job Creation Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.

International Economic: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 3:55, Eurozone – Retail Sales – 5:00AM,

Other:  FOMC Minutes – 2:00.



Thursday, July 6:

Economic:  Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30. ADP Employment Report – 8:15, International Trade – 8:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, PMI Services Index – 9:45, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.

International Economic:  Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.  Chia CPI and PPI at 9:30PM on Sunday, July 9.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.


Friday, July 7:

Economic:  Employment Situation – 8:30, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International Economic:  No major announcements.

Earnings:  None meeting criteria.


Monday, July 10:

Economic:  Labor Market Condition Index  – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.

International Economic: No major announcements.

Earnings: None meeting criteria.


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