July 27, 2009
Good morning. Market is on a tear, with the SPY up another 4.2% last week, closing up 3.97 to 98.06. That 98.06 close represents a 46% move up from the bottom tick of 67.10 on March 6, quite an impressive bounce. Equally as dramatic is the plunge in the VIX to a close of 23.09 last Friday, a level not seen since 9/8/08. All of a sudden fear, or even concern about the market moving a little too fast, is totally out of favor. To hear the financial press tell it everything is ok, earnings are better than expectations, we will start to grow in the third quarter, etc. Everyone, from government to reporters to stock owners, are eager to declare the last year a nightmare over, and get back to business as usual, even though that business as usual is maybe what caused the nightmare in the first place.
February 2, 2009
Good morning. Another week, another sell-off in the S&P. The good news is that the week was only down a little, about .3%, the bad news is that there was a 3.4% up day erased. The up day was caused by the announcement that the Obama administration was going to announce a so-called bad bank to take bad assets from struggling commercial banks, the subsequent sell-off was caused by glitches in that plan as well as increasing issues with the new stimulus package.