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Taking Off The Rose Tinted Glasses

August 30, 2010


Good morning. We had a very solid rally on Friday of over 1.5% in the SPY that was almost able to turn what had been a very negative week to the positive. As it was, the SPY finished “only” down .6% on the week and finished at 106.86. Friday’s close puts the SPY down 4.2% from the closing price of last year of 111.44. The VIX was actually down 4% on the week, closing at 24.45. What are the “reasons” for Friday’s rally?

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Asia, Greece and More

February 16, 2010


Good morning. It was a very interesting week for the market last week. The SPY advanced 1.38 (or .9%) on the week to close at 108.66, after actually trading lower on last Friday than the close of the week before. It was actually a fairly impressive rally off the lows last Friday, as the low opening was associated with negative market news from both Europe and Asia.

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Era of the Hypocrite

January 11, 2010


Good morning. It was a strong first week for the market in 2010, with the SPY closing up 3.13 on the week to 114.57 (2.8%). More importantly (maybe) is the amazing drop in the VIX, from 21.68 to 19.12, an astounding 16%. Could an expiration back spread be in our future? I am surely tempted, and may jump on one as soon as today.

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Questions and Absurdities

July 27, 2009


videopoker640

Illinois is trying to bet their future on video gaming in bars…

Good morning. Market is on a tear, with the SPY up another 4.2% last week, closing up 3.97 to 98.06. That 98.06 close represents a 46% move up from the bottom tick of 67.10 on March 6, quite an impressive bounce. Equally as dramatic is the plunge in the VIX to a close of 23.09 last Friday, a level not seen since 9/8/08. All of a sudden fear, or even concern about the market moving a little too fast, is totally out of favor. To hear the financial press tell it everything is ok, earnings are better than expectations, we will start to grow in the third quarter, etc. Everyone, from government to reporters to stock owners, are eager to declare the last year a nightmare over, and get back to business as usual, even though that business as usual is maybe what caused the nightmare in the first place.

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Different Administration, Same Problems

July 13, 2009


Good morning. Dull and down for the market last week, with the SPY down 1.95, or 2%, to close at 87,96. The onslaught of earnings season continues this week, but the initial earnings report of Alcoa (AA) showing sales down over 40% from last year tells the tale. It’s true that AA has shown some management aggressiveness in cutting costs (and some solid PR in telling everyone what a good job they are doing) so the earnings, although negative, were not as bad as expected.

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