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Escalating Fear

August 22, 2011


Good morning. It was yet another week of selling in the market, with the SPY finishing at its lowest level since Sep. 17, 2010 at 112.64, down 4% on the week. That number also represents a yearly decline of 10.4%, and at this point (based on Friday’s closing action) the market is not showing much sign of an impending bottom.

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A Smörgåsbord of Issues

July 11, 2011


Good morning. Despite Friday’s surprise poor numbers from the Labor Department the SPY still managed a positive week, closing up .49 at 134.40 (.4%). That small move up maintained the very strong 5.6% move up from the week before, when really the market could have had some serious losses on Friday. The Thursday ADP numbers (private sector jobs) showed a very strong 157,000 advance, causing many to revise estimates of the governmental numbers on Friday to well over 100,000, and had many thinking the surprisingly bad number of May would be revised upward.

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Rationally Bearish on Bonds

May 9, 2011


Good morning. It was a very interesting week last week for investors, especially those who either trade commodities or have used security ETFs to gain exposure (chase returns) into the commodity area. The SPY was down 2.23 (1.6%) to close at 134.20, not a very significant amount given the recent rally, but the VIX, possibly seeing what can happen when sellers arrive and longs are forced out, was up a whopping 25% to close at 18.39.

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Revolution in Wisconsin

February 28, 2011


Good morning. Rising tensions in the Middle East caused the market to have its first down week in a while last week, with the SPY closing (despite a strong rally on Friday) at 132.33, down 2.24 (1.7%). The VIX spiked higher to finish at 19.21, up 3.32 (17%) from a very low close before the three-day weekend of 16.43.

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Rumors of a Hidden Cliff

January 10, 2011


I  invite you to register for our (complimentary and always no-pressure) Protected Index Program® In-Office Seminar to be held at PTI’s Downtown Chicago Offices on Saturday, January 15th, 2011 from 9:00am – 12:00pm. My brother Dan and I will be talking about how the PIP strategy works and fielding questions. Seating is limited but you must register to attend here. I look forward to seeing you there!

Good morning, and Happy New Year. The market started the New Year with a nice gain on the first day, and basically held on to those gains for the rest of the week. The SPY was up 1.39 on the week to finish at 127.14 (up 1.1%), which represents the highest levels since early September of 2008. The VIX was down on the week, closing down 2.7% at 17.13. The VIX, and the volatility levels in the majority of stocks, continue to exhibit a very pronounced skew to the upside as we go out in time.

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