Blog Archives

Rationally Bearish on Bonds

May 9, 2011

Good morning. It was a very interesting week last week for investors, especially those who either trade commodities or have used security ETFs to gain exposure (chase returns) into the commodity area. The SPY was down 2.23 (1.6%) to close at 134.20, not a very significant amount given the recent rally, but the VIX, possibly seeing what can happen when sellers arrive and longs are forced out, was up a whopping 25% to close at 18.39.

Floating Them Trillions

April 11, 2011

Good morning. The market was slow and virtually unchanged last week, with the SPY closing down a scant .28 at 132.86. The VIX was up slightly (.48) to close at a still relatively low 17.39. There was a little more movement in interest rates, with the 30-year bond rate up.15% to close at 4.63%.

Governmental Largess

January 3, 2011

Good morning, and Happy 2011 to all. Last week the market basically flat lined, with the SPY up .15 on the week, call it even. The VIX was actually up 7.8% on the week to close at 17.75, reflecting the idea that the post holiday weeks will probably be somewhat more volatile than the very slow markets we have seen in the last week. For the year the SPY was up 12.8%, 10.2% of which occurred in the last quarter. The relatively rapid market rise corresponds almost exactly with the Federal Reserves actions to increase the money supply growth beginning last August.

Hog Heaven

December 20, 2010

Good morning. Even though the SPY had several minor up days last week, as the market continues its gradual but steady rally, it actually closed down 18 cents to finish at 124.30. This is due to the 60-cent dividend that came out on Friday morning.