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Riddle Me This

October 10, 2011


Good morning. It was a solid week to the upside last week, with the SPY gaining 2.3% to close at 115.71. The “relief” rally also caused the VIX to drop sharply to a level of 36.20, a weekly drop of 15.7%. A lot of this was due to a growing idea that the European debt situation was about to be more adequately addressed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the governments of Germany and France.

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Who Wants the Truth?

June 27, 2011


Good morning. The SPY finished the week down .24 (call it flat) after having some wild moves on Wednesday and Thursday. A rally early in the week culminated in a Wednesday high of 129.81, only to sell off to a Thursday low of 126.19 before bouncing back strongly (after yet another announcement of impending settlement in Greece) to a Thursday close of 128.30. Based on the strength of that bounce you might have thought the rally would continue, but you would have been mistaken, or at least early.

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Rumors of a Hidden Cliff

January 10, 2011


I  invite you to register for our (complimentary and always no-pressure) Protected Index Program® In-Office Seminar to be held at PTI’s Downtown Chicago Offices on Saturday, January 15th, 2011 from 9:00am – 12:00pm. My brother Dan and I will be talking about how the PIP strategy works and fielding questions. Seating is limited but you must register to attend here. I look forward to seeing you there!

Good morning, and Happy New Year. The market started the New Year with a nice gain on the first day, and basically held on to those gains for the rest of the week. The SPY was up 1.39 on the week to finish at 127.14 (up 1.1%), which represents the highest levels since early September of 2008. The VIX was down on the week, closing down 2.7% at 17.13. The VIX, and the volatility levels in the majority of stocks, continue to exhibit a very pronounced skew to the upside as we go out in time.

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A Hot Mess

November 29, 2010


Good morning. The market retreated a little last week as people headed to the malls for what most prognosticators predict will be a solid holiday buying season. The SPY finished down 1.39 (1.2%) to close at 118.80, almost all of which happened during the half-day session on Black Friday. What was supposed to be a sleepy day turned out to be just that, a sleepy day, except the market opened down around 1% and stayed right there until the close.

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Escalation Clause

November 8, 2010


Good morning. Huge gains for the market last week, with the SPY’s up 3.6% to close at 122.72. This was primarily due to the announcement by the Fed on Wednesday that they were going to peg the so-called quantitative easing (QE II) at around $70B per month to a total of $600B. I think this number is in excess of the “street” number of $500B and I suspect the $70B per month is a little more aggressive than most thought before the announcement.

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