Blog Archives
Governmental Largess
January 3, 2011
Good morning, and Happy 2011 to all. Last week the market basically flat lined, with the SPY up .15 on the week, call it even. The VIX was actually up 7.8% on the week to close at 17.75, reflecting the idea that the post holiday weeks will probably be somewhat more volatile than the very slow markets we have seen in the last week. For the year the SPY was up 12.8%, 10.2% of which occurred in the last quarter. The relatively rapid market rise corresponds almost exactly with the Federal Reserves actions to increase the money supply growth beginning last August.
What Ever Happened to Mayberry?
November 22, 2010
Good morning. There was conflicting news in the market last week that had the market moving fairly violently on an intraday basis, only to close almost exactly unchanged. The SPY closed up a whole .09, at 120.29, after trading as low as 117.59 on Tuesday. The VIX closed down a solid 12% at 18.04, reflecting confidence that nothing bad will happen in the upcoming Thanksgiving week, or maybe for the rest of the year. Normally that would be the case, quiet trading before and after the holiday, but the recent few years have been anything but normal.
Escalation Clause
November 8, 2010
Good morning. Huge gains for the market last week, with the SPY’s up 3.6% to close at 122.72. This was primarily due to the announcement by the Fed on Wednesday that they were going to peg the so-called quantitative easing (QE II) at around $70B per month to a total of $600B. I think this number is in excess of the “street” number of $500B and I suspect the $70B per month is a little more aggressive than most thought before the announcement.
A Victim of Circumstance
October 18, 2010
Good morning. It was a very interesting week for the market last week, with stocks and bonds heading in different directions. The SPY was up one percent on the week to finish at 117.7, the highest close since May 3 of this year, and within striking distance of the years’ top print of 122.12 on April 26.
Economics 101
September 13, 2010
Good afternoon. It was a second in a row up week for the market last week, with the SPY advancing .59 to close at 111.48 (.5%). It was significant because the market was able to hold and consolidate the large gains of the week before, leaving the SPY up a strong 4.3% for the two-week period. The VIX was actually up slightly (3%) last week but still showed a large drop of 10% for the two-week period, closing at 21.98.