Blog Archives
Bin Laden and the Trickle Down Theory
May 2, 2011
Good morning. It was another solid steady move to the upside last week, with the SPY rising 2.65 (2%) to close at 136.43. This move, again, comes under the general umbrella of lower dollar and higher commodity prices in line with the expansionary monetary policy being maintained by the Federal Reserve. Today we have the added bullish sentiment accompanying the raid on Osama Bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan, during which he and several companions were killed by U.S. Special Forces.
Laughter, Disbelief, Anger
March 21, 2011
Good morning. Volatile and down week for the market last week, despite a solid bounce off the Wednesday lows. The SPY was down 3.08 on the week to close at 127.76 (2.3%), which was still a solid 2.48 (2%) off the low made on Wednesday afternoon. The news regarding the Japanese earthquake damage and subsequent tsunami, soon overwhelmed by events at the nearby nuclear reactor facility, dominated the trading for the week. A big upward reaction to the market was directly associated with a coordinated G7 (first coordinated intervention in over ten years) move to stop appreciation of the Japanese yen in the aftermath of the disaster.
Egypt
January 31, 2011
Good morning. A significant sell-off last Friday left the SPY down slightly on what had been a positive week, with the SPY closing down .65 for the week at 127.72 (.5%). The VIX closed up 8.7% but still was not that elevated at 20.07. Most of the Friday sell-off was attributed to the spreading political issues in the Middle East (as well as F, AMZN, and MSFT earnings), as uncertainties surrounding the future of Egypt and the Suez Canal took center stage. As of now, to the extent that anyone can predict the outcome of unrest due to 30 odd years of heavy-handed rule, the situation does not look dire or likely to spread rapidly or violently to the surrounding countries.
Rumors of a Hidden Cliff
January 10, 2011
I invite you to register for our (complimentary and always no-pressure) Protected Index Program® In-Office Seminar to be held at PTI’s Downtown Chicago Offices on Saturday, January 15th, 2011 from 9:00am – 12:00pm. My brother Dan and I will be talking about how the PIP strategy works and fielding questions. Seating is limited but you must register to attend here. I look forward to seeing you there!
Good morning, and Happy New Year. The market started the New Year with a nice gain on the first day, and basically held on to those gains for the rest of the week. The SPY was up 1.39 on the week to finish at 127.14 (up 1.1%), which represents the highest levels since early September of 2008. The VIX was down on the week, closing down 2.7% at 17.13. The VIX, and the volatility levels in the majority of stocks, continue to exhibit a very pronounced skew to the upside as we go out in time.
Governmental Largess
January 3, 2011
Good morning, and Happy 2011 to all. Last week the market basically flat lined, with the SPY up .15 on the week, call it even. The VIX was actually up 7.8% on the week to close at 17.75, reflecting the idea that the post holiday weeks will probably be somewhat more volatile than the very slow markets we have seen in the last week. For the year the SPY was up 12.8%, 10.2% of which occurred in the last quarter. The relatively rapid market rise corresponds almost exactly with the Federal Reserves actions to increase the money supply growth beginning last August.