Blog Archives
Assumptions Going Forward
June 22, 2009
Good morning. First real down week for the market in a while, with the SPY down from 95.08 to 92.04, or 3.2% on the week. A lot of the down move was caused by a correction in the price of commodities, most notably oil. Oil was down over 3% on Friday, and the oil part of the SPY (XLE) was down 8% on the week, from 53.51 to 49.21.
Where Is Our Adult Supervision?
June 15, 2009
Good morning. Last week the market continued to advance, but at a very reduced rate. The SPY finished the week at 95.08, up from 94.55 or .05%, and is now up 5.3% from the 2008 close of 90.29. Rising commodity prices, especially oil, and a series of economic numbers that are showing generally a decreasing rate of deterioration seem to be fueling the rally.
Conundrums and Stress Tests
May 11, 2009
Good morning. It was yet another solid week for the market, especially big caps, last week. The SPY had a very strong move from 97.89 to 92.98, or 5.8% (and now positive on the year), and the Industrials were up 4.4%, from 8,212 to 8,575. The QQQQ’s, however, were actually down slightly on the week, from 34.37 to 34.23. To some extent the rally was concentrated in oils and financials, and the de-coupling with the QQQQ’s may signal that some caution should be considered after the rapid run-up. The VIX continues to show an increased comfort in the market, as it was down over 10% on the week, from 35.29 to 32.04.
An Oligopoly Outbreak
April 27, 2009
Good morning. Two solid days for the market last Thursday and Friday almost brought the SPY into the positive for the week, but the rally fell short at 86.66, leaving the SPY down .74, or less than 1%, on the week. There was a fairly significant increase in the VIX, up from 33.93 to 36.81, possibly due to a combination of concerns involving financial stress tests and a possible worldwide flu outbreak.
Full Speed Ahead
April 20, 2009
Good morning. Yet another positive week for the market, making it five advancing weeks in a row! Is there anyone out there (except the talking heads on TV who seem able to revise their predictions on the fly) who would have thought that on those dark days of early March?