Blog Archives

Efficient Market


Good morning. We had another quiet but positive week for the broad market last week, with the SPY quietly advancing 2.04 to finish at 133.11 (1.5%). The VIX, mainly due to the very quiet week, was down to 15.68, a drop of another 1.8%, and a level that we reached last April before the market underwent a roughly 15% correction. For whatever reason market advances have been associated with the significant decrease in market fear, so that virtually all market corrections or sell-offs have been associated with low implied volatilities at the start.

Read more


Egypt


Good morning. A significant sell-off last Friday left the SPY down slightly on what had been a positive week, with the SPY closing down .65 for the week at 127.72 (.5%). The VIX closed up 8.7% but still was not that elevated at 20.07. Most of the Friday sell-off was attributed to the spreading political issues in the Middle East (as well as F, AMZN, and MSFT earnings), as uncertainties surrounding the future of Egypt and the Suez Canal took center stage. As of now, to the extent that anyone can predict the outcome of unrest due to 30 odd years of heavy-handed rule, the situation does not look dire or likely to spread rapidly or violently to the surrounding countries.

Read more


State of Denial


Good morning. It was somewhat of a mixed week for the market last week, with the SPY down .7% to close at 128.37, the Dow Industrials up .7%, and the Russell down a significant 4.3%. It seemed like the news on Apple (Steve Jobs taking the medical leave, stock down 6.2% on the week) weighed more on the small cap stocks than on the more multi-national Dow stocks. Thrown into that mix was the State visit of the Chinese President and the resultant announcements of purchases of planes from Boeing and equipment from GE and others.

Read more


Rumors of a Hidden Cliff


I  invite you to register for our (complimentary and always no-pressure) Protected Index Program® In-Office Seminar to be held at PTI’s Downtown Chicago Offices on Saturday, January 15th, 2011 from 9:00am – 12:00pm. My brother Dan and I will be talking about how the PIP strategy works and fielding questions. Seating is limited but you must register to attend here. I look forward to seeing you there!

Good morning, and Happy New Year. The market started the New Year with a nice gain on the first day, and basically held on to those gains for the rest of the week. The SPY was up 1.39 on the week to finish at 127.14 (up 1.1%), which represents the highest levels since early September of 2008. The VIX was down on the week, closing down 2.7% at 17.13. The VIX, and the volatility levels in the majority of stocks, continue to exhibit a very pronounced skew to the upside as we go out in time.

Read more


Governmental Largess


Good morning, and Happy 2011 to all. Last week the market basically flat lined, with the SPY up .15 on the week, call it even. The VIX was actually up 7.8% on the week to close at 17.75, reflecting the idea that the post holiday weeks will probably be somewhat more volatile than the very slow markets we have seen in the last week. For the year the SPY was up 12.8%, 10.2% of which occurred in the last quarter. The relatively rapid market rise corresponds almost exactly with the Federal Reserves actions to increase the money supply growth beginning last August.

Read more