Blog Archives
Striking a Balance
October 5, 2009
Good morning. Last week the market had its second down week in a row, with the SPY down 1.96 to close at 102.49. That represents a decline of 1.9%, and is 5.2% off the high of 108.06 reached of 9/17. Is it a healthy pause or is the rally over? To be determined, but clearly the “buy every dip” mentality evident in the long run-up has cooled some. Economic numbers in the last couple of weeks have shown uneven progress in the recovery, and those most recent actually seem to indicate that the recovery is stalling in the face of huge governmental stimulus.
Social and Economic Health
August 31, 2009
Good morning. Sort of an inside week for the market last week, what we in the business would call a premium sellers dream. The SPY was up a whole .41 on the week, moving from 102.97 to 103.38 (.4%). The VIX was down a little, from 25.01 to 24.76, not much of a drop considering how little movement there was. For those looking to buy long term put protection, as we do in the PIP Program, the cost for at the money put protection for December of 2011 is in the 15.5-17% of the underlying range for 28 months.
What I’ve Learned vs. What I Believe
August 24, 2009
LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER, FOLKS! If you’re a trader or investor in the Chicago area and you’ve never attended a complimentary Protected Index Program® Seminar before, register for our Saturday August 29th 3-hour session from 9:00am – noon at our Loop Office. My brother Dan and I will be discussing how our long-term portfolio strategy works and answering your questions. You will also meet some of our talented staff and enjoy a free breakfast and coffee bar. All handouts and classroom materials will be provided, but you must register.
And, if you cannot attend a Chicago seminar, I encourage you to register for the 90-Minute PIP Teleconference on Wednesday, September 9th from 6:00pm – 7:30pm Central Time – get details here. There is no cost for this session, either! All you need to join in is a phone and PC — participate from anywhere in the U.S. – from your home or office!
Good morning. The market was back in the plus column last week, despite a deep sell-off to start the week last Monday. For the week the SPY was up 2.18, or 2.2%, to close at 102.97, a number not seen since last October 6. The VIX was actually up slightly for the week, finishing up.74 to close at 25.01.
A Fiasco Here, A Fiasco There
August 3, 2009
Good morning. Another positive week for the market last week, but the rate of advance slowed markedly. The SPY was up from 98.06 to 98.81, or .8% on the week. This increase was a little unusual given that the VIX was actually up significantly on the week, from 23.09 to 25.92. This morning, early, the S&P Futures are up another 10 points after the good car sale numbers following the “Cash for Clunkers” week. We also had a slew of Economists come out over he weekend, most notably Alan Greenspan, saying the recession is over and growth will be better than expected. It is almost frenzied, if you are a prognosticator, to get on board with how good things are going to get very rapidly.
Questions and Absurdities
July 27, 2009
Illinois is trying to bet their future on video gaming in bars…
Good morning. Market is on a tear, with the SPY up another 4.2% last week, closing up 3.97 to 98.06. That 98.06 close represents a 46% move up from the bottom tick of 67.10 on March 6, quite an impressive bounce. Equally as dramatic is the plunge in the VIX to a close of 23.09 last Friday, a level not seen since 9/8/08. All of a sudden fear, or even concern about the market moving a little too fast, is totally out of favor. To hear the financial press tell it everything is ok, earnings are better than expectations, we will start to grow in the third quarter, etc. Everyone, from government to reporters to stock owners, are eager to declare the last year a nightmare over, and get back to business as usual, even though that business as usual is maybe what caused the nightmare in the first place.