Blog Archives
Stimulus Scenarios
May 31, 2011
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Good morning. The market rallied back last week to finish virtually flat, the SPY finishing down .10 to finish at 133.51. That leaves it down 2.1% from the April close of 136.43 with one day to go in May. The market seems to be stalled here (although it is rallying so far this morning) for any number of potential reasons. Other than the employment number for March, which showed a surprising gain in employment, most of the economic numbers have pointed to growth slowing.
History…Repeats Itself, Repeats Itself, Repeats Itself
April 4, 2011
Good morning. The market continued its advance last week, with the SPY up 1.5% on the week to close at 133.15. This is the highest closing since March 3 of this year, before the shocks of the Japanese reactor issues and the Libyan conflict. Even though neither of those has shown any improvement the market has moved on.
Escalation Clause
November 8, 2010
Good morning. Huge gains for the market last week, with the SPY’s up 3.6% to close at 122.72. This was primarily due to the announcement by the Fed on Wednesday that they were going to peg the so-called quantitative easing (QE II) at around $70B per month to a total of $600B. I think this number is in excess of the “street” number of $500B and I suspect the $70B per month is a little more aggressive than most thought before the announcement.
Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
December 14, 2009
Good morning. It was a very inside week in the market last week, with the SPY up a whole .10, closing at 111.11. That represents a very dramatic move up of 66% from the March lows, and puts the market back to where it was on 10/2/08. It does seem like the advance has slowed, at least temporarily, as the SPY traded over 110 two months ago and has basically flat lined since then. The market is still down almost 29% from its all time high of 156.33 in October of 2007.
Conundrums and Stress Tests
May 11, 2009
Good morning. It was yet another solid week for the market, especially big caps, last week. The SPY had a very strong move from 97.89 to 92.98, or 5.8% (and now positive on the year), and the Industrials were up 4.4%, from 8,212 to 8,575. The QQQQ’s, however, were actually down slightly on the week, from 34.37 to 34.23. To some extent the rally was concentrated in oils and financials, and the de-coupling with the QQQQ’s may signal that some caution should be considered after the rapid run-up. The VIX continues to show an increased comfort in the market, as it was down over 10% on the week, from 35.29 to 32.04.