Blog Archives
Taking Off The Rose Tinted Glasses
August 30, 2010
Good morning. We had a very solid rally on Friday of over 1.5% in the SPY that was almost able to turn what had been a very negative week to the positive. As it was, the SPY finished “only” down .6% on the week and finished at 106.86. Friday’s close puts the SPY down 4.2% from the closing price of last year of 111.44. The VIX was actually down 4% on the week, closing at 24.45. What are the “reasons” for Friday’s rally?
Competing Against Fear
August 16, 2010
Good morning. It was a sharply down week for the market last week, with the SPY closing at 108.31, down 5.08 for the week (3.6%). The VIX, as expected with the market down, ran up 20.7%, closing up 5.5 at 26.23. The close Friday on the September S&P Futures contract of 1076.10 is fairly close to the midpoint of the post-holiday low of 1003 (in the pre-market session on July 6) and the high on August 5 of 1127.
New Keynesian Economics
July 26, 2010
Good morning. It was a very strong week for the market last week, despite a sell-off on Wednesday attributed to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before Congress. In that testimony before the Senate Banking Committee the Fed Chairman referred to the economic outlook as “unusually uncertain,” and the market responded with a two percent sell-off into the close on Wednesday. The market recovered that amount and more on a big rally Thursday that continued into Friday. For one week, at least, the market focused on generally good earnings, increased revenues, and good guidance going forward, rather than the tepid Economic numbers.
Earnings Season
July 12, 2010
Good morning. It was a very positive week for the market last week, with the SPY trading up 5.76 to close at 107.96 (5.6%). It was an even more dramatic move for the S&P Futures contract, which actually traded down to 1003 in the electronic session last Monday and finished the week at 1072.50, or up 6.9% from the low print. Last week’s positive move almost exactly negated the strong down move the week before, and last Friday’s close of 107.96 is a whole 9 cents higher than the close on 6/25 of 107.87.
INSANITY
June 14, 2010
Good morning. Snap back week for the market last week, as the market looked at some stronger numbers out of Asia and the run on the Euro subsided somewhat, at least for the moment. The SPY’s finished the week up 2.86 (or 2.7%) to close at 109.68, virtually the same level it closed the Friday before Memorial Day. So we had a fairly violent move to the downside, down to 104.65 last Tuesday, before recovering to slightly higher for the two weeks last Friday. This morning the market looks to extend those gains.