Blog Archives
The Water Is Still Cold
August 10, 2009
Good morning. First off, I would like to extend an invitation to you to attend our Saturday, August 29th Protected Index Program In-Office Seminar, which will be from 9:00am – 12:00pm at our downtown Chicago office. It is completely complimentary and we provide a nice continental breakfast, coffee bar and classroom materials. My brother Dan and I will be presenting and you will also get to meet some of the PTI brokers and staff and ask all the questions you want. Seats are still available but you must register to attend. Click here to view the details and register. I hope to see you there!
Yet another positive week for the market last week, propelled mainly by Friday’s rally after the relatively positive jobs data. For the week the SPY was up 2.4%, from 98.81 to 101.20, with most (1.31 points) of that gain coming on Friday. The VIX was also down on the week, from 25.92 to 24.76, although curiously still above the 23.09 close of two weeks ago. The even more amazing thing is the moves in individual stocks, mostly those that are steeped in government involvement.
A Fiasco Here, A Fiasco There
August 3, 2009
Good morning. Another positive week for the market last week, but the rate of advance slowed markedly. The SPY was up from 98.06 to 98.81, or .8% on the week. This increase was a little unusual given that the VIX was actually up significantly on the week, from 23.09 to 25.92. This morning, early, the S&P Futures are up another 10 points after the good car sale numbers following the “Cash for Clunkers” week. We also had a slew of Economists come out over he weekend, most notably Alan Greenspan, saying the recession is over and growth will be better than expected. It is almost frenzied, if you are a prognosticator, to get on board with how good things are going to get very rapidly.
Questions and Absurdities
July 27, 2009
Illinois is trying to bet their future on video gaming in bars…
Good morning. Market is on a tear, with the SPY up another 4.2% last week, closing up 3.97 to 98.06. That 98.06 close represents a 46% move up from the bottom tick of 67.10 on March 6, quite an impressive bounce. Equally as dramatic is the plunge in the VIX to a close of 23.09 last Friday, a level not seen since 9/8/08. All of a sudden fear, or even concern about the market moving a little too fast, is totally out of favor. To hear the financial press tell it everything is ok, earnings are better than expectations, we will start to grow in the third quarter, etc. Everyone, from government to reporters to stock owners, are eager to declare the last year a nightmare over, and get back to business as usual, even though that business as usual is maybe what caused the nightmare in the first place.
Different Administration, Same Problems
July 13, 2009
Good morning. Dull and down for the market last week, with the SPY down 1.95, or 2%, to close at 87,96. The onslaught of earnings season continues this week, but the initial earnings report of Alcoa (AA) showing sales down over 40% from last year tells the tale. It’s true that AA has shown some management aggressiveness in cutting costs (and some solid PR in telling everyone what a good job they are doing) so the earnings, although negative, were not as bad as expected.
Entrepreneurial Impossibilities
July 6, 2009
Good morning. Down week for the market as Friday’s poor unemployment numbers spooked what had been a very flat week. The SPY finished at 89.81, down from 91.84 or 2.3% on the week. Friday’s move was actually down 2.7%, as we had been up slightly.