Blog Archives
Earnings Season
July 12, 2010
Good morning. It was a very positive week for the market last week, with the SPY trading up 5.76 to close at 107.96 (5.6%). It was an even more dramatic move for the S&P Futures contract, which actually traded down to 1003 in the electronic session last Monday and finished the week at 1072.50, or up 6.9% from the low print. Last week’s positive move almost exactly negated the strong down move the week before, and last Friday’s close of 107.96 is a whole 9 cents higher than the close on 6/25 of 107.87.
Banking Industry Backlash
January 25, 2010
Good afternoon. Last week was the worst week in the market since last March, with the SPY down over 4% to close at 109.21. That closing number is also lower than the 111.44 closing number from last year, wiping out all of the early January gains. The VIX was up a dramatic 52% for the week to close at 27.30, and erased a lot of the upward sloping volatility skew we talked about last week.
Striking a Balance
October 5, 2009
Good morning. Last week the market had its second down week in a row, with the SPY down 1.96 to close at 102.49. That represents a decline of 1.9%, and is 5.2% off the high of 108.06 reached of 9/17. Is it a healthy pause or is the rally over? To be determined, but clearly the “buy every dip” mentality evident in the long run-up has cooled some. Economic numbers in the last couple of weeks have shown uneven progress in the recovery, and those most recent actually seem to indicate that the recovery is stalling in the face of huge governmental stimulus.
Different Administration, Same Problems
July 13, 2009
Good morning. Dull and down for the market last week, with the SPY down 1.95, or 2%, to close at 87,96. The onslaught of earnings season continues this week, but the initial earnings report of Alcoa (AA) showing sales down over 40% from last year tells the tale. It’s true that AA has shown some management aggressiveness in cutting costs (and some solid PR in telling everyone what a good job they are doing) so the earnings, although negative, were not as bad as expected.
Our “Brand” of Capitalism
April 6, 2009
Good morning. The market, despite a bad start on Monday, had another strong week as the S&P finished at $84.26, up $2.65 or 3%. Friday’s close represents an amazing 26% rally from the lows set on March 6, and for the buy and hold types it gets you back to roughly where you were on Feb. 10. We are still down about 7% on the year, but it sure feels like up compared to the first week of March. Is this a real rally?