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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 6.19-6.26.2017
June 19, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Experience traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” – Alan Farley
“It will not always be summer; build barns.” – Hesiod
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations,
or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” – John Adams
The market generally goes on its annual summer hiatus starting on July 4th. The annual summer doldrums seem to have hit the market a couple works earlier than usual this year. It seems like this annual event started a couple of months earlier than normal.
The Dow Jones Industrials set multiple records while ending the week at record high – 21,384.28. Weaker economic reports seem to have little effect on the seemingly inexorable upward move. Be nimble
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
Data Source: OptionVue8
The CBOE Short-term Volatility Index (VXST) was down nearly 20% this past week. The VXST uses nearby and second nearby options with at least 1 day left to expiration and then weights them to yield a constant, nine-day measure of the expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index. This level for the VXST shows a lowered expectation of short-term movement for the S&P 500 movement.
Data Source: OptionVue8
The week of June 19 includes reports on existing home sales and new home sales. The prior week’s steep decline inhousing starts and permits have lowered expectations for this week’s reports. A small, yet healthy, increase is expected in the FHFA House Price Index. The coming week should be devoid of any international economic reports with the capability of of moving the markets.
This earnings season is over. There are few more earnings announcements this week than last week. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include Adobe Systems, Lennar, HB Fuller, LA-Z Boy, Fedex, CARMAX, Winnebago, Sonic, Barnes&Noble, Carnival, Hain Celestial, and Bed Bath & Beyond
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“The purpose of technology is not to confuse the brain but to serve the body.” – – William S. Burroughs
“I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over.
Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can’t see from the center.” Kurt Vonnegut
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts,
you’ve wasted 10 minutes” Peter Lynch
Monday, June 19:
Economic: No major announcements.
International Economic: No major announcements.
Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak at the Business Roundtable Meeting held by the North Country Chamber of Commerce and North Country Regional Economic Development Council, in Plattsburg, NY – 8:00AM, President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans will speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Money Marketeers of New York University event in New York City, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Tuesday, June 20:
Economic: Current Account – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.
International Economic: Germany PPI – 2:00AM, Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.
Other: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer to deliver keynote speech at the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam – 3:15AM, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren to speak about “Bad zero: Financial Stability in a Low Interest Rate Environment” at the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam – 8:15AM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to discuss current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco – 3:00PM.
Earnings:
Wednesday, June 21:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: No major announcements
Other: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM,
Earnings:
Thursday, June 22:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas Cit Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00AMMoney Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Survey – 2:00AM.
Earnings:
Friday, June 23:
Economic: PMI Composite Flash – 9:45, New Home Sales – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: France GDP – 2:45AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30Am, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM.
Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Illinois Bankers Association Annual Conference in Nashville, TN – 11:15, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to be the keynote speaker at The Policy Summit on Housing, Human Capital and Inequality: Transforming Regional Economies: Growth and Equity through Policy and Practice, with audience and media Q&A, in Cleveland, Ohio – 12:40PM, Federal Reserve Board Gov. Jerome Powell to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Symposium on Central Clearing, with audience Q&A – 2:15PM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Monday, June 26:
Economic: Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 6.12-6.19.2017
June 12, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Experience traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” – Alan Farley
“I had nothing to offer anybody except my own confusion.” – Jack Kerouac
“You should never make predictions, especially about the future.” – Samuel Goldwyn
Sorry for the delay in posting. A full weekend with family has resulted in a truncated version of this blog. The numbers for last week paint a picture – with or without commentary. The divergence between the major indexes was of a magnitude I have rarely seen during my years as a trader. A FANG sell-off (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) had minimal impact upon other equity indexes. The sell-off was a classic stock rotation with money going from FANG and other tech stocks to the financial sector. The rotation of sectors and increasing intraday movement are characteristic of late stage bull markets.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
Data Source: OptionVue8
The VIX gained nearly 10% last week. The monthly VIX futures basically held constant. The Short-Term Volatility Index (VXST) show a gain of Just over 22%. The tenor of the VIX options market was modestly bullish. Russell Rhoads’, CBOE VIX guru, trade of the week took place on Friday. Per Russell, “A trader purchased 3000 VIX Jun 21st 14 Calls at 0.36 and then sold 4500 of the VIX Jun 21st 17 Calls for 0.18.” This ratio spread was done for even money.
Data Source: OptionVue8
The economic calendar heats with reports on industrial production, retail sales, consumer prices and housing starts. The highlight of the week will be the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday and its comments in the subsequent press conference. will be the highlight of the week. The wild card, as always, will be potential political fireworks from inside the Beltway. International economic news will be highlighted by announcements by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Both are expected to maintain current policy and interest rates.
This earnings season is over. There are only a smattering of earnings announcement this week. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include H&R Block, John Wiley & Sons, Kroger, and Bob Evans Farms.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“The purpose of technology is not to confuse the brain but to serve the body.” – – William S. Burroughs
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts,
you’ve wasted 10 minutes” Peter Lynch
Monday, June 12:
Economic: No major announcements
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Tuesday, June 13:
Economic: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 8:30, PPI – FD – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.
International Economic: Great Britain CPI & PPI – 4:30AM, China Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales – 10:00PM.
Other: FOMC Meeting Begins. New York Federal Reserve President Willian Dudley speaks about the Impact of Regulation on a Bank’s Internal Capital Allocation at the Prudential Bank Regulation Conference, in Washington D.C. – 1:45PM.
Earnings:
Wednesday, June 7:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Consumer Price Index – 8:30, Retail Sales – 8:30, Business Inventories – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Germany CPI – 2:00Am, Great Britain Labour Market Report – 4:00AM, Eurozone Industrial Production – 5:00AM.
Other: FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00PM, FOMC Forecasts – 2:00PM, Fed Chair Press Conference – 2:20.
Earnings:
Thursday, June 15:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30 – 8:30, Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, Housing Market Index – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Great Britain Retail Sales- 4:30AM, Eurozone Merchandise Trade – 5:00AM
Other: Bank of England Announcement – 7:00AM.Bank of Japan Announcement.
Earnings:
Friday, June 16:
Quadruple Witching
Economic: Housing Starts – 8:30, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Eurozone HICP – 4:00AM.
Other: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to speak at a moderated Q&A held by Park Cities Rotary Club in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 12:45PM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Monday, June 19:
Economic: No major announcements
International Economic: No major announcements.
Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak at the Business Roundtable Meeting held by the North Country Chamber of Commerce and North Country Regional Economic Development Council, in Plattsburg, NY – 8:00AM, President Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans will speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Money Marketeers of New York University event in New York City, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 6.5-6.12.2017
June 5, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Experience traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” – Alan Farley
“All you need is the plan – the road map – and the courage to press on to your destination.” – Earl Nightingale
“To achieve anything in this game,
you must be prepared to dabble on the boundary of disaster.” – Stirling Moss
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Stand and Poor’s 500, and the NASDAQ Composite all closed at record highs last week. The Dow Jones Transportation Index is flirting with new highs. This stellar performance came despite pronouncements by analysts that the “Trump Trade” is dead, weaker than expected job growth and lackluster consumer spending.
Trading has an underpinning of discipline combined with the trader’s personal risk/reward comfort zone and their understanding of what is a “normal” market. Traders often discuss the concept of “normal.” Our success depends on being able to reduce market movement and trends to a lowest common denominator. This basic view of the market is what is “normal.”
My recent conversations with other professional options traders have shown a growing consensus that we are seeing a new ”normal.” A new “normal” requires the options trader to reassess current strategies within the context of current market intraday movement, implied volatility for options, and the liquidity/investor participation individual option markets. This is another example of the need “The Prepared Mind” in successful implementation and management of option strategies.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
Data Source: OptionVue8
The VIX has closed has closed below 10 more time this year than any other year since 1990. The average VIX closing price is lower than any other yearly averages during the same period. The VIX and associated derivatives held strong this week despite record high in the major equity indexes. Spread strategies being implemented in VIX options tend to be bullish. The spreads being quoted appear to be reflecting the belief the VIX is trading around a support level. This level appears to be rooted in psychological feelings rather than technical facts.
Data Source: OptionVue8
This week will be a much quieter last week. The focus will be on the service sector. manufacturing, the consumer, and inventories. The highlights of the week is fired FBI Director James Comey is scheduled to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee in an open session on Thursday morning at 10 AM. This testimony will be aired live on ABC, CBS, CNN and other networks.
This earnings season is winding down. It has been a strong earnings season. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include Thor, Casey’s General Sore, Fred’s, GIII Apparel, Oxford Industries, Brown-Forman, Analogic, Verifone, and J.M. Smucker.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Sometimes paranoia is just having all the facts.” – William S. Burroughs
“You’ll always miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” – Wayne Gretzky
“All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perceptions and arbitrary values.” – Marshall McLuhan
“If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts,
you’ve wasted 10 minutes” Peter Lynch
Monday, June 5:
Economic: Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure – 8:30, PMI Services – 9:56. Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Labor Market Conditions Index = 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30-
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings:
Tuesday, June 6:
Economic: Gallup US ECI – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00.
International Economic: Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM.
Earnings:
Wednesday, June 7:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Gallup US Job Creation Index – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM, Japan GDP = 7:50PM. China Merchandise Trade Balance – 10:00PM.
Earnings:
Thursday, June 8:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Germany Industrial Production- 2:00, France Merchandise Trade – 2:45AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00AM, China PPI and CPI – 9:30PM
Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 7:45AM, Fired FBI Director James Comey is scheduled to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee in an open session on Thursday morning at 10 AM.
Earnings:
Friday, June 9:
Economic: Wholesale Trade – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Japan Tertiary Index – 12:30AM, German Merchandise Trade – 2:00, Great Britain Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade – 4:30Am.
Earnings:
Monday, June 12:
Economic: No major announcements
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings:
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 5.29-6.5.2017
May 30, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Experience traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains.” – Alan Farley
“We are pioneers and the history of pioneers is not that good.” – Jeff Bezos
“I have a right to be blind sometimes.” – Lord Nelson
The blog will continue to focus on numbers and “facts.” The major indices rebounded from two weeks of negative numbers to set new all-time highs. The market’s ability to ignore “bad news” was a topic of conversation this week among the financial news talking heads.
Economic data has been tepid of late. The economic news continued this trend last week with despite disappointing GDP numbers for the first quarter, new-home sales, and durable goods orders. Many analysts attributed the strength of the US domestic equity indexes on better than expected results from overseas.
Other analysts have scrapped their crystal balls. The most puzzling explanation was, “The markets just want to go higher.” This analysis should be called the Cyndi Lauper Theory in honor of her song “Girls Just Want to Have Fun.” Please give me that man’s seat at the table.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
| Index | 26-May | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21,080.28 | 275.44 | 1.32% | 6.67% | 9.60% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2,415.82 | 34.10 | 1.43% | 7.93% | 9.81% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5,788.36 | 136.80 | 2.42% | 19.01% | 12.26% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1,382.24 | 14.91 | 1.09% | 1.85% | 14.79% (RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1065.35 | 14.56 | 1.39% | 7.46% | 9.16% (VXO) |
| Crude Oil (CLN7) | 49.87 | (1.09) | -2.14% | -7.46% | 30.04%(OVX) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4527.94 | 199.52 | 4.61% | 11.76% | NA |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 9.81 | (2.23) | -18.52% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The VIX closed just above the post financial crisis lows from earlier this month. The CBOE Short-term Volatility Index (VXST) closed at an all-time low on Friday. Russell Rhoads, CBOE VIX guru, points out the low VIX levels are not accompanied by SKEW in the 150’s. Usually, SKEW is inversely related to low VIX levels. The current SKEW a lack of concern for tail risk despite the low VIX. There appears to be a lack of near term fear about economic and political turmoil.
| Indexes | Ticker | 26-May | 19-May | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 9.81 | 12.04 | (2.23) | -18.52% |
| VIX June Future (6/21/2017) | VXM7 | 11.925 | 12.725 | (0.80) | -6.29% |
| VIX July Future (7/18/2017) | VXN7 | 12.925 | 13.475 | (0.55) | -4.08% |
| VIX August Future (8/18/2017) | VXQ7 | 13.775 | 14.425 | (0.65) | -4.51% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 7.60 | 10.98 | (3.38) | -30.78% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 12.44 | 13.49 | (1.05) | -7.78% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 14.84 | 15.57 | (0.73) | -4.69% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 81.81 | 87.21 | (5.40) | -6.19% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 125.41 | 131.39 | (5.98) | -4.55% |
| Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 10.95 | 12.95 | (2.00) | -15.45% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 13.46 | 14.64 | (1.18) | -8.06% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 11.22 | 12.16 | (0.94) | -7.73% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 24.60 | 25.08 | (0.48) | -1.91% |
| Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 153.49 | 142.40 | 11.09 | 7.79% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 79.54 | 73.67 | 5.87 | 7.97% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
It will be a very heavy week for economic news. The week starts with markets closed for Memorial Day in the U.S., and ends with the U.S. Employment Situation report. In between, we get a wide range of employment reports and indexes plus Consumer Spending, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and International Trade.
This earnings season is winding down. It has been a strong earnings season. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website. Earnings highlights include g-III Apparel, Michael Kors Holdings, Vera Bradley, Analog Devices, Dollar General, Ciena, and Broadcom,
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Sometimes paranoia is just having all the facts.” – William S. Burroughs
“The secret of life is to have no fear; it’s the only way to function.” – Stokely Carmichael
“All media exist to invest our lives with artificial perceptions and arbitrary values.” – Marshall McLuhan
“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position where you cannot live to fight another day.” – Dick Fuld
Monday, May 29:
US Holiday – Memorial Day – Markets Closed
International Economic: Japan Household Spending and Unemployment Rate – 7:30PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 5/26 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| RYAAY | BMO | $106.22 | 255,745 | 3.11% | $101.90 | $97.03 |
| TTM | BMO | $37.07 | 1,405,530 | 7.33% | $35.18 | $35.09 |
Tuesday, May 30:
Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI -9:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.
International Economic: France GDP – 2:45AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00AM, Germany CPI – 8:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM, China CFLP Manufacturing PMI = 9:00PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 5/26 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| ADI | BMO | $82.81 | 3,287,900 | 2.71% | $81.27 | $78.80 |
| KORS | BMO | $36.76 | 2,043,180 | 5.29% | $36.41 | $37.17 |
| OLLI | AMC | $41.70 | 597,864 | 3.24% | $40.30 | $39.59 |
| PANW | AMC | $118.08 | 2,227,790 | 12.80% | $117.19 | $114.72 |
| SMTC | AMC | $37.10 | 488,458 | 2.13% | $36.22 | $35.27 |
| VAL | BMO | $112.99 | 867,747 | 0.16% | $112.22 | $112.32 |
Wednesday, May 31:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Redbook – 8:55, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, Beige Book – 2:00, Farm Prices – 3:00.
International Economic: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, France PPI, Germany Unemployment Rate – 3:55AM, Eurozone Unemployment Rate – 5:00AM, Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM.
Other: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session with audience and media at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York City – 800AM, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak at The Bank of Korea International Conference 2017: Global Economic and Financial Challenges: The Decade Ahead in Seoul, with media and audience Q&A – 7:30PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 5/26 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| AVGO | AMC | $241.21 | 2,361,800 | 3.57% | $237.92 | $228.88 |
| COO | AMC | $217.46 | 380,447 | 1.44% | $214.06 | $208.60 |
| DCI | BMO | $46.68 | 508,991 | 7.10% | $46.72 | $46.31 |
| DG | BMO | $72.32 | 2,877,090 | 4.78% | $71.46 | $71.91 |
| FIVE | AMC | $52.63 | 1,163,250 | 5.97% | $52.12 | $50.37 |
| GWRE | AMC | $67.73 | 385,908 | 2.62% | $63.50 | $63.76 |
| JOY | BMO | $28.30 | 1,114,410 | 0.12% | $28.25 | $28.21 |
| LULU | AMC | $48.23 | 3,858,690 | 12.79% | $49.32 | $51.84 |
| MBLY | BMO | $61.80 | 5,931,020 | 2.59% | $61.78 | $61.70 |
| RH | AMC | $57.81 | 1,773,290 | 16.53% | $57.58 | $53.65 |
| TECD | BMO | $94.66 | 427,206 | 5.06% | $93.70 | $94.95 |
| VMW | AMC | $96.81 | 1,205,560 | 6.26% | $94.61 | $93.96 |
| WDAY | AMC | $99.99 | 1,536,100 | 7.58% | $97.71 | $93.12 |
Thursday, June 1:
Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Confidence – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00SM
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Friday, June 2:
Economic: Employment Situation – 8:30, International Trade – 8:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Monday, June 5:
Economic: Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure – 8:30, PMI Services – 9:56. Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Labor Market Conditions Index = 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 5/26 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| CASY | AMC | $115.78 | 505,433 | 3.57% | $114.47 | $113.30 |
| THO | AMC | $91.40 | 835,078 | 7.83% | $93.33 | $94.37 |
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Kevin O’Neill: The Fine-Tuned Machine (Revisited)
May 22, 2017
When I was young, I worked for a man named George Butvilas. George was a Vice President at American National Bank in Chicago when I first met him. I worked for George four different times, but my fondest memories are tied to that first staff position I had working for him at American National’s Tel-A-Data subsidiary when I was in my mid-twenties.
We had a weekly one-on-one meeting, and I don’t think one of these passed without George imparting a nugget of management wisdom. Inevitably, one of our meeting topics led to, “Kevin, this is Management Lesson Number…” Other than management lesson #1 (Hire good people), I’m certain the numbers were randomly chosen in the moment; but the wisdom always was a nugget of pure gold.
Now I’m old, and I have some nuggets of my own to share; so suspend your political point of view, and suspend your opinion of Trump himself. The context is political, but this is Management Lesson #24 for aspiring leaders.
Three months ago, President Trump claimed that his administration was operating like a fine-tuned machine; and three months ago, I told you why that was impossible under the best of circumstances.
Whether you embrace the Tuckman model or you evaluate your team’s development on a less structured continuum from immature to mature, leaders must (a) understand where their teams are and (b) adapt their behavior to provide what their teams needs to progress. Clearly Trump didn’t understand his team when I wrote the blog entry three months ago, and he might not understand any better now.
Prolonged chaos is the result – inconsistent messaging, leaks as staff members vie for power and chase their own agendas, etc. The administration is in the worst possible place, stuck on storming with no end in sight.
Leading a team is a skill entirely different from making deals or having popular ideas. It’s hard work. It’s a challenge, even for experienced leaders. If the leader can’t or doesn’t do it well, luck is the only way a team can become cohesive.
The CEO/COO model is an alternative. It’s what worked for Bill Clinton after two years of storming during his first term. Leon Panetta replaced longtime FoB Mack McLarty, redirected the team to the Clinton agenda, and created a functioning administration.
Clearly Reince Preiebus doesn’t have control of the team. That shouldn’t be a big surprise for those who paid attention to his time at the RNC. Unless you think his last act was getting Trump elected which I’d say happened despite the RNC, Priebus’ last act was the attempt to engineer a victory for Jeb Bush.
Media creatures are reporting rumors about personnel changes when Trump returns from World Tour 2017. Only one change matters. See what Trump does with his COO spot, the Chief of Staff. With media, Democrats, and a portion of the Republican party opposing him, he needs his Executive Branch in his corner. The Chief of Staff has that responsibility.
We’ll see.
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