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Questions and Absurdities

July 27, 2009


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Illinois is trying to bet their future on video gaming in bars…

Good morning. Market is on a tear, with the SPY up another 4.2% last week, closing up 3.97 to 98.06. That 98.06 close represents a 46% move up from the bottom tick of 67.10 on March 6, quite an impressive bounce. Equally as dramatic is the plunge in the VIX to a close of 23.09 last Friday, a level not seen since 9/8/08. All of a sudden fear, or even concern about the market moving a little too fast, is totally out of favor. To hear the financial press tell it everything is ok, earnings are better than expectations, we will start to grow in the third quarter, etc. Everyone, from government to reporters to stock owners, are eager to declare the last year a nightmare over, and get back to business as usual, even though that business as usual is maybe what caused the nightmare in the first place.

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Don’t Drink the Water

May 4, 2009


Good morning. A mostly sane and slightly positive week last week, with the SPY up from 86.66 to 87.89, or 1.4%. The relative sanity was reflected in the continuing drop in the VIX, from 36.81 to 35.29, or 4.16%. You would need to go back to last September to find the VIX this low, and again it is an indication that investors are starting to feel (rightly or wrongly) that some positive things are starting to happen and maybe the worst is behind us.

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On The Good Ship “Market”

April 13, 2009


Good morning. A furious rally of 246 points last Thursday made for a holiday shortened positive week in the market, with the SPY finishing up $1.65 or 1.8% for the week. The continued upside move in the market caused the VIX to drop 3.18 points to 36.52, a value the market has not seen since September 26, 2008. The VIX made an initial drop this year, after a relatively sharp year-end rally, to 36.88 on January 2, but has spent most of the year over 40. This morning we are seeing a modest retracement so far of last Thursday’s rally, but nohuge sell-off.

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The Auto Industry

March 30, 2009


Good morning. Another solid week for the market last week, as the market, in the last four days, was able to sustain the levels reached on last Monday’s strong rally. Despite a down Friday, the S&P closed at $81.61, up 4.90 or 6.4% on the week.

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