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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 8.21-8.28.2017
August 21, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” – Jesse Livermore
“I love to talk about nothing. It’s the only thing I know anything about.” – Oscar Wilde
“Computers have enabled people to make more mistakes faster than almost any invention in history, with the possible exception of tequila and handguns.” – Mitch Ratcliffe
“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis
I am posting a truncated version of the Prepared Mind. The weekly numbers and economic calendar are here, but without commentary.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index | 18-Aug | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21674.51 | (183.81) | -0.84% | 9.67% | 13.28% (VXD) |
S&P 500 (SPX) | 2425.55 | (15.77) | -0.65% | 8.37% | 14.26% (VIX) |
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5790.91 | (40.62) | -0.70% | 19.07% | 17.85% (VXN) |
Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1357.79 | (16.44) | -1.20% | 0.05% | 17.76% (RVX) |
S&P 100 (OEX) | 1073.52 | (8.28) | -0.77% | 8.28% | 12.91% (VXO) |
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4381.90 | (79.25) | -1.78% | 8.16% | NA |
Crude Oil (CLV7) | 48.90 | (0.01) | -0.02% | -9.26% | 27.53%(OVX) |
Gold (GCZ7) | 1290.30 | (5.40) | -0.42% | 12.01% | 12.12 (GVZ) |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 14.26 | (1.25) | -8.06% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes | Ticker | 18-Aug | 11-Aug | Change | % Change |
CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 14.26 | 15.51 | (1.25) | -8.06% |
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 14.975 | 15.275 | (0.30) | -1.96% |
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 15.125 | 15.525 | (0.40) | -2.58% |
VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 15.375 | 15.525 | (0.15) | -0.97% |
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 13.17 | 15.53 | (2.36) | -15.20% |
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 15.65 | 16.39 | (0.74) | -4.51% |
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 16.38 | 16.86 | (0.48) | -2.85% |
VIX of VIX | VVIX | 114.39 | 127.43 | (13.04) | -10.23% |
CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 128.86 | 136.48 | (7.62) | -5.58% |
Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 38.97 | 43.09 | (4.12) | -9.56% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 13.30 | 13.66 | (0.36) | -2.64% |
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 44.19 | 45.50 | (1.31) | -2.88% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 22.51 | 23.20 | (0.69) | -2.97% |
Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 70.66 | 71.88 | (1.22) | -1.70% |
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 73.89 | 74.58 | (0.69) | -0.93% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
Janet Yellen’s Friday speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be the week’s most important event. The sector focus for the week will be Housing. FHFA House Price Index will be announced on Tuesday followed by New Home Sales on Wednesday and Existing Home Sales on Thursday. Durable Goods Orders will be will be announced on Friday prior to Janet Yellen’s speech.
This earnings season winds down this the week. The highlights include: Nordson, Toll Brothers, Cree, Medtronic, Salesforc.com, Eaton Vance, PVH, HP, Guess?, Williams Sonoma, Lowe’s, Sanderson Farms, Dollar Tree, Staples, Hormel Foods, JM Smucker, GameStop, GameStop, Ulta Beauty, Toro, and Big Lots, Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“A man without ethics is a wild beast loosed upon this world.” – Albert Camus
“The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing.” -Jesse Livermore
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffet
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, August 21:
Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30.
International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 12:30AM.
Tuesday, August 22:
Economic: Redbook – 8:55, FHFA House Price Index – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00.
International: Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Survey – 6:00AM.
Wednesday, August 23:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, New Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: No major announcements.
Thursday, August 24:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, PMI Composite Flash – 9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Existing Home Sales – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM, Great Britain GDP – 4:30AM.
Other: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has hosted an annual economic policy symposium. The event is designed as a forum for central bankers, policy experts and academics to come together to focus on a topic that is not necessarily of immediate concern, but instead looks into the future at emerging issues and trends.
Friday, August 25:
Economic: Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Germany GDP – 2:00AM
Other: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium continues through Saturday. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to speak at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium on Financial Stability in Jackson Hole.- 10:00AM.
Monday, August 28:
Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30.
International Economic: No major announcements.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 8.7-8.14.2017
August 7, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” — Louis Pasteur
“Today’s scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments, and they wander off through equation after equation, and eventually build a structure which as no relation.” — Nikola Tesla
“I love to talk about nothing. It’s the only thing I know anything about.” — Oscar Wilde
“Do you know who you are? Don’t ask. Act! Action will delineate and define you.” — Thomas Jefferson
“Better to have a simple model backed by excellent people than the other way around.” — Paul Carrett
The talking heads are discounting new highs for the Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA.) It is a case of “Pay not attention to the man behind the curtain!” The naysayers’ arguments focus on two specific areas – the limited number of components in the average (30) and the components of the average are weighted according to nominal stock price rather than their overall relative economic size.
These factors lead to a situation where individual stocks can have a disproportionate effect on the performance of the index. This effect was apparent last week with Apple (AAPL) and 3M (MMM) propelling the DJIA to all-time new highs, and the previous week when Boeing (BA) had the same impact. The net result was the DJIA hit new highs on eight consecutive days.
The broader based S&P 500 (SPX) provides a less biased view of US equity markets. Market capitalization and number of components (500) prevent an individual stock from significantly moving the index. The SPX is not moving. It, too, has set a new record. The SPX has gone 12 trading days – nearly 2 ½ weeks – without a move up or down of 0.03%. This is the longest streak on record . “Nothing” is the new trend.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index | 4-Aug | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 22092.81 | 262.50 | 1.20% | 11.79% | 10.33% (VXD) |
S&P 500 (SPX) | 2476.83 | 4.73 | 0.19% | 10.66% | 10.03% (VIX) |
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5899.91 | (9.01) | -0.15% | 21.31% | 15.91% (VXN) |
Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1412.32 | (16.94) | -1.19% | 4.07% | 14.63% (RVX) |
S&P 100 (OEX) | 1095.42 | 5.89 | 0.54% | 10.49% | 8.90% (VXO) |
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4511.96 | (7.84) | -0.17% | 11.37% | NA |
Crude Oil (CLU7) | 49.51 | (0.28) | -0.56% | -8.13% | 28.53%(OVX) |
Gold (GCZ7) | 1264.80 | (10.80) | -0.85% | 9.79% | 10.87 (GVZ) |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 10.03 | (0.26) | -2.53% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The dog days have affected the VIX and related products, in the same manner they have affected the major equity indexes. The VIX is hovering above all-time lows. The markets are not moving. Europe is on vacation.The A-team traders in NYC are in the Hamptons enjoying the fruits of last year’s bonuses. The trading desks across the world are staffed by the B-team. They live in fear of making mistake and raising the hackles of the alpha dogs. Their trading mantra is Primum non nocere – “first, do no harm.”
Know, that these desks do not have the depth of experience to rationally respond to the black swan – the unexpected volatility event. This lack of experience can magnify panicked responses to unknowns. Be wary.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes | Ticker | 4-Aug | 28-Jul | Change | % Change |
CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 10.03 | 10.29 | (0.26) | -2.53% |
VIX August Future (8/18/2017) | VXQ7 | 11.275 | 11.375 | (0.10) | -0.88% |
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 12.775 | 12.625 | 0.15 | 1.19% |
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 13.525 | 13.825 | (0.30) | -2.17% |
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 8.58 | 8.55 | 0.03 | 0.35% |
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 12.75 | 12.58 | 0.17 | 1.35% |
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 14.25 | 13.96 | 0.29 | 2.08% |
VIX of VIX | VVIX | 87.39 | 87.20 | 0.19 | 0.22% |
CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 138.32 | 139.91 | (1.59) | -1.14% |
Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 29.79 | 30.19 | (0.40) | -1.32% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 11.19 | 11.29 | (0.10) | -0.89% |
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 37.31 | 37.54 | (0.23) | -0.61% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.19 | 21.00 | 0.19 | 0.90% |
Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 90.77 | 90.22 | 0.55 | 0.61% |
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 94.29 | 93.62 | 0.67 | 0.72% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The coming week includes consumer price readings and public speeches by four Fed officials. Thursday’s jobless claims and producer price data are other reports which could possibly engender some sort of move in the markets. Congress is on vacation. President Trump is on vacation. It should be very quiet. Maybe, too quiet?
It will be another blockbuster week for earnings. Earnings announcements will continue at a steady pace this week. The two stocks engendering the largest levels of interest are Nvidia (NVDA) and Priceline (PCLN) I am interested in both issues. I am far more likely to trade the NVDA announcement than the PCLN announcement.
I do not like the risk/reward ratio in Priceline.com. I will probably just watch and learn from PCLN price and implied volatility movement. PCLN closed at $2032.77 last week. Priceline’s average move for the past few earnings announcements has been nearly 7%. I will avoid a trade where the trade range expectations are plus or minus (+/-) $150. The at-the-money front month straddle is trading about $100.
It is not a “retail trade.” It is too difficult to control risk at these prices. There a number of other trading alternatives for the week. The alternatives include: CBS, Tyson Foods, Marriott Int’l, Tripadvisor, Walt Disney, Fossil, Ralph Lauren, Henry Schein, Monster Beverage, CVS Health Michael Kors, Mylan, Perrigo, Avnet, Nvidia, Nordstrom, Macy’s. Kohl’s, and J C Penney. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star.” Friedrich Nietzsche
“Now came the dog days—day after day of hot, still summer, when for hours at a time light seemed the only thing that moved; the sky-sun, clouds and breeze-awake above the drowsing downs.” – Richard Adams
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, August 7:
Economic: Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure – 8:30, Labor Market Conditions Index – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.
International Economic: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00AM.
Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the America’s Cotton Marketing Cooperatives 2017 Conference in Nashville, with audience and media Q&A – 11:45AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to take part in a moderated audience Q&A session at the Sioux Falls Rotary Club event in Sioux Falls, SD – 1:25PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 8/4 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
BAH | BMO | $34.61 | 1,273,830 | 5.16% | $34.04 | $33.40 |
TSN | BMO | $63.30 | 2,756,450 | 4.76% | $62.63 | $61.38 |
ALB | AMC | $119.60 | 1,137,890 | 3.15% | $117.94 | $111.86 |
CAR | AMC | $32.21 | 3,786,290 | 9.08% | $32.03 | $29.84 |
CBS | AMC | $63.62 | 2,867,650 | 2.41% | $66.14 | $65.35 |
EVHC | AMC | $55.79 | 1,402,240 | 1.83% | $58.13 | $58.91 |
IPHI | AMC | $34.69 | 1,266,800 | 9.41% | $38.00 | $36.81 |
LBTYA | AMC | $34.61 | 3,140,040 | 2.80% | $33.54 | $32.56 |
MAR | AMC | $105.02 | 2,451,590 | 2.04% | $103.55 | $102.31 |
RSPP | AMC | $31.11 | 2,427,740 | 3.21% | $33.53 | $32.72 |
Tuesday, August 8:
Economic: Motor NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00.
International: Germany Merchandise Trade – 2:00AM, France Merchandise Trade – 2:45AM, China PPI & CPI – 9:30PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 8/4 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ARMK | BMO | $39.91 | 1,332,200 | 4.40% | $40.17 | $40.55 |
CVS | BMO | $77.97 | 6,031,140 | 4.24% | $78.52 | $79.31 |
EGN | BMO | $49.95 | 1,658,500 | 2.73% | $51.90 | $50.69 |
EXPD | BMO | $59.56 | 1,194,230 | 3.32% | $59.12 | $57.87 |
IONS | BMO | $52.36 | 1,419,600 | 4.71% | $53.50 | $55.01 |
KITE | BMO | $112.58 | 1,263,020 | 7.89% | $110.05 | $106.39 |
KORS | BMO | $36.80 | 2,484,970 | 6.24% | $35.78 | $34.88 |
LBTYK | BMO | $33.25 | 3,611,070 | 2.31% | $32.43 | $31.43 |
LNG | BMO | $44.68 | 1,798,230 | 1.72% | $45.47 | $47.07 |
MNK | BMO | $41.02 | 2,553,220 | 5.59% | $45.73 | $45.27 |
NCLH | BMO | $56.90 | 1,527,410 | 8.16% | $55.66 | $55.20 |
PDCE | BMO | $46.26 | 1,266,770 | 4.09% | $46.22 | $44.66 |
RL | BMO | $77.29 | 1,681,100 | 6.25% | $74.94 | $73.41 |
SEE | BMO | $43.49 | 2,194,330 | 4.89% | $44.57 | $44.56 |
VNTV | BMO | $64.04 | 2,031,240 | 1.76% | $64.17 | $62.55 |
W | BMO | $80.36 | 1,643,180 | 13.03% | $76.74 | $76.44 |
ZTS | BMO | $62.12 | 2,728,190 | 5.09% | $62.28 | $62.16 |
ACAD | AMC | $30.69 | 1,537,150 | 6.89% | $29.91 | $28.58 |
ANDV | AMC | $97.93 | 2,120,980 | 2.15% | $98.12 | $96.87 |
CLR | AMC | $33.65 | 3,508,550 | 1.63% | $32.64 | $31.90 |
DIS | AMC | $107.69 | 7,142,580 | 1.69% | $108.32 | $106.78 |
GDDY | AMC | $42.57 | 1,366,500 | 4.84% | $43.26 | $42.66 |
MNST | AMC | $52.71 | 2,168,070 | 3.42% | $53.18 | $51.63 |
TRIP | AMC | $39.51 | 2,735,580 | 9.72% | $38.23 | $37.91 |
TSO | AMC | $99.53 | 2,127,980 | 2.15% | $98.12 | $96.87 |
TSRO | AMC | $128.59 | 1,197,230 | 2.75% | $128.18 | $129.80 |
WBMD | AMC | $66.30 | 1,091,480 | 2.25% | $65.11 | $60.66 |
XEC | AMC | $94.00 | 1,218,690 | 2.32% | $96.70 | $95.14 |
Wednesday, August 9:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Wholesale Trade – 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Japan Machine Orders – 7:50PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 8/4 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ATHM | BMO | $47.82 | 1,212,820 | 2.94% | $48.15 | $46.85 |
AVT | BMO | $38.20 | 1,257,710 | 1.93% | $38.86 | $39.07 |
FWONK | BMO | $35.18 | 1,682,960 | 3.25% | $34.73 | $35.03 |
LITE | BMO | $58.85 | 1,811,120 | 6.83% | $63.74 | $62.41 |
MBLY | BMO | $63.49 | 2,972,730 | 1.55% | $63.37 | $63.15 |
MDCO | BMO | $36.43 | 1,153,500 | 1.64% | $38.09 | $39.95 |
MYL | BMO | $32.92 | 4,957,290 | 1.95% | $38.24 | $37.05 |
NVO | BMO | $42.06 | 1,952,120 | 9.19% | $42.33 | $42.54 |
SINA | BMO | $96.12 | 1,435,990 | 11.70% | $94.32 | $90.22 |
SNI | BMO | $87.29 | 2,671,580 | 4.86% | $84.67 | $77.53 |
TRCO | BMO | $40.80 | 2,339,900 | 1.31% | $41.73 | $41.16 |
WB | BMO | $78.77 | 2,591,310 | 14.24% | $76.25 | $72.31 |
XRAY | BMO | $61.59 | 1,283,590 | 2.92% | $62.34 | $63.06 |
ALNY | AMC | $82.44 | 1,092,830 | 10.52% | $81.94 | $81.38 |
ATH | AMC | $49.90 | 1,586,540 | 2.25% | $50.47 | $50.00 |
CTRP | AMC | $57.70 | 3,674,220 | 3.46% | $58.69 | $56.66 |
GXP | AMC | $31.22 | 2,913,200 | 0.94% | $30.60 | $30.05 |
LYV | AMC | $37.36 | 1,259,010 | 4.80% | $36.98 | $35.78 |
NTES | AMC | $304.47 | 1,276,920 | 5.94% | $308.48 | $305.51 |
PBYI | AMC | $85.80 | 1,700,200 | 1.55% | $93.51 | $90.99 |
PTLA | AMC | $61.50 | 1,013,300 | 10.89% | $63.85 | $60.48 |
SFR | AMC | $34.31 | 1,268,360 | 0.88% | $34.89 | $34.52 |
Thursday, August 10:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, PPI-FD – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM, Great Britain Industrial Production – 4:30AM, Great Britain Merchandise Trade – 4:30AM.
Other: William Dudley New York Federal Reserve Bank President will deliver opening remarks and join a panel of New York Fed economists to answer questions after the presentation of the Economic Press Briefing on Wage Inequality in the Region, in New York – 10:00AM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 8/4 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
DDS | BMO | $72.93 | 1,149,540 | 9.09% | $72.40 | $66.47 |
EAT | BMO | $34.71 | 1,227,660 | 5.59% | $35.73 | $36.58 |
KSS | BMO | $41.89 | 4,532,050 | 9.68% | $40.74 | $39.33 |
PRGO | BMO | $67.43 | 1,514,590 | 8.12% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
YY | BMO | $73.49 | 1,085,350 | 2.87% | $71.32 | $65.08 |
BZUN | AMC | $32.02 | 2,098,150 | 3.39% | $32.73 | $28.13 |
JWN | AMC | $46.81 | 3,026,170 | 6.88% | $47.72 | $48.15 |
NVDA | AMC | $167.21 | 22,750,900 | 11.70% | $165.09 | $154.25 |
TTD | AMC | $53.39 | 1,296,070 | 19.36% | $53.78 | $52.98 |
Friday, August 11:
Economic: CPI – 8:30, International Trade – 8:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Germany CPI – 2:00AM,
Other: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan to speak at the University of Texas at Arlington Accounting Department Sixth Annual CPE Day in Arlington, Texas, with audience and media Q&A – 9:40AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to take part in a moderated audience Q&A session at the Independent Community Bankers of Minnesota Annual Convention in Bloomington, MN – 11:30AM.
Earnings: None meeting criteria.
Monday, August 14:
Economic: No Major Announcements.
International Economic: Japan GDP, 7:50PM, China Industrial Production & Retail Sales – 10:PM,
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 8/4 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
JD | BMO | $46.40 | 10,758,100 | 6.19% | $44.86 | $42.68 |
SYY | BMO | $52.33 | 3,053,240 | 1.64% | $51.97 | $50.94 |
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 7.31-8.7.2017
July 31, 2017
Index | 28-Jul | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21830.31 | 250.24 | 1.16% | 10.46% | 10.46% (VXD) |
S&P 500 (SPX) | 2472.10 | (0.44) | -0.02% | 10.45% | 10.29% (VIX) |
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5908.92 | (12.60) | -0.21% | 21.49% | 15.91% (VXN) |
Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1429.26 | (6.58) | -0.46% | 5.31% | 15.30% (RVX) |
S&P 100 (OEX) | 1089.53 | 1.79 | 0.16% | 9.89% | 8.26% (VXO) |
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4519.80 | (117.54) | -2.53% | 11.56% | NA |
Crude Oil (CLU7) | 49.79 | 4.19 | 9.19% | -7.61% | 29.86%(OVX) |
Gold (GCZ7) | 1275.60 | 20.60 | 1.64% | 10.73% | 11.44 (GVZ) |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 10.92 | 1.56 | 16.67% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
In his song “Rock ‘n’ Roll”, Lou Reed summed up the reasons for VIX weaknesses better than any market mavens – “ There was nothin’ goin’ down at all, not at all.” VIX futures and options were little changed this week. However, shorter term volatility indexes and VIX related products showed some strength last week while moving off levels near all-time lows. Financial talking heads continued to focus on the weakness VIX as being a potential precursor to a market correction.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes | Ticker | 28-Jul | 21-Jul | Change | % Change |
CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 10.29 | 9.36 | 0.93 | 9.94% |
VIX August Future (8/18/2017) | VXQ7 | 11.375 | 11.375 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 12.625 | 12.675 | (0.05) | -0.39% |
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 13.825 | 13.475 | 0.35 | 2.60% |
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 8.55 | 7.10 | 1.45 | 20.42% |
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 12.58 | 12.06 | 0.52 | 4.31% |
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 13.96 | 13.89 | 0.07 | 0.50% |
VIX of VIX | VVIX | 87.20 | 77.86 | 9.34 | 12.00% |
CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 139.91 | 134.53 | 5.38 | 4.00% |
Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 30.19 | 29.79 | 0.40 | 1.34% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 11.29 | 11.20 | 0.09 | 0.80% |
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 37.54 | 37.31 | 0.23 | 0.62% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.00 | 21.55 | (0.55) | -2.55% |
Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 90.22 | 90.96 | (0.74) | -0.81% |
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 93.62 | 94.25 | (0.63) | -0.67% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The first week of August is light on economic data. It includes June Factory Orders on Thursday and the June US Employment Situation Report on Friday. Vehicle sales on Tuesday will the first piece of information on July’s consumer data, while factory orders on Thursday will close out June data on manufacturing. The lack of economic data does not preclude volatility being injected into the markets.
Naysayers are looking at a number of potential sources of volatility in the market. North Korea’s bellicose behavior has yet to inject any fear into the markets. Week employment numbers on Friday could expose chinks in the bull market. The fourth component of Fang, Apple (AAPL) is announcing earnings after market close on Tuesday. Weaker than expected earnings could inject volatility into the markets. The chaos inside the beltway is a significant contributor to unease among financial talking heads. Earnings continue with the most active week of this earnings season. Earnings highlights for the coming week include: CME, Allstate, Cummins, Phillips 66, ADM, Pfizer, Mosaic, Ecolab, APPLE, Emerson Electric, Simon Property, MetLife, Mondelez, Exelon, Time Warner, Occidental Petroleum, Prudential, Marathon Oil, Yum! Brand, Kellogg, Viacom, Apache, and Berkshire Hathaway. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star.” — Friedrich Nietzsche
“There’s no success like failure” – Bob Dylan
“Avoid running at all times.” – Satchel Paige“
“August brings in sharp focus and a furious boil everything I’ve been listening to in the late spring and summer” – Henry Rollins
Monday, July 31:
Economic: Chicago PMI – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.
International Economic: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 5:00AM, Eurozone HICP Flash – 6:00AM, Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.
Other: Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ADM | BMO | $41.78 | 2,984,660 | 4.80% | $41.51 | $41.17 |
APD | BMO | $143.49 | 1,199,640 | 1.30% | $145.17 | $143.66 |
BP | BMO | $35.16 | 5,438,030 | 2.55% | $34.87 | $34.72 |
SNY | BMO | $47.56 | 1,868,820 | 1.88% | $47.86 | $48.41 |
ALSN | AMC | $37.64 | 1,389,490 | 4.41% | $37.47 | $37.84 |
SBAC | AMC | $137.64 | 1,040,360 | 2.33% | $136.40 | $134.87 |
VNO | AMC | $78.96 | 1,253,230 | 1.79% | $82.22 | $87.25 |
Tuesday, August 1:
Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45AM, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00.
International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00AM, Eurozone GDP Flash – 5:00AM.
Other: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to be the keynote speaker at the Community Bankers Association of Ohio Annual Convention in Cincinnati – 11:00AM, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to discuss “Monetary Policy’s Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth” in Las Vegas, with audience and media Q&A – 2:30PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
AN | BMO | $42.65 | 1,276,840 | 2.69% | $42.53 | $41.10 |
BG | BMO | $79.85 | 1,552,490 | 9.49% | $79.28 | $76.94 |
CME | BMO | $121.28 | 1,362,620 | 1.94% | $120.90 | $123.63 |
CMI | BMO | $167.22 | 1,364,150 | 3.52% | $165.70 | $164.23 |
D | BMO | $76.99 | 2,347,650 | 2.46% | $76.92 | $77.80 |
EMR | BMO | $59.53 | 3,489,590 | 3.00% | $60.15 | $59.34 |
ETN | BMO | $78.43 | 2,088,700 | 1.99% | $79.54 | $78.64 |
HCN | BMO | $73.07 | 1,606,630 | 0.47% | $73.56 | $75.12 |
HCP | BMO | $31.83 | 3,094,240 | 3.35% | $31.82 | $32.19 |
INCY | BMO | $135.74 | 1,721,720 | 2.13% | $133.59 | $131.94 |
NNN | BMO | $40.07 | 1,390,750 | 0.79% | $40.08 | $39.23 |
OLN | BMO | $30.25 | 2,283,430 | 3.98% | $31.07 | $29.73 |
PFE | BMO | $33.15 | 20,297,500 | 1.57% | $33.30 | $33.58 |
PSX | BMO | $83.65 | 2,128,540 | 0.92% | $82.94 | $81.78 |
RCL | BMO | $113.39 | 1,256,430 | 7.71% | $113.34 | $112.33 |
SHOP | BMO | $92.98 | 2,224,900 | 8.02% | $91.84 | $90.07 |
SPG | BMO | $160.52 | 1,952,440 | 2.71% | $161.62 | $160.04 |
TRI | BMO | $46.06 | 1,446,690 | 2.87% | $45.93 | $46.22 |
XRX | BMO | $30.43 | 2,314,850 | 2.00% | $29.90 | $29.46 |
XYL | BMO | $56.93 | 1,251,380 | 1.93% | $56.95 | $55.75 |
AAPL | AMC | $149.50 | 27,617,200 | 3.78% | $150.92 | $148.13 |
ALL | AMC | $90.50 | 1,748,910 | 1.94% | $89.31 | $89.19 |
ASH | AMC | $65.46 | 1,110,830 | 4.10% | $66.38 | $66.49 |
DVA | AMC | $65.47 | 1,464,350 | 3.38% | $65.34 | $64.38 |
DVN | AMC | $33.21 | 5,466,980 | 3.89% | $32.20 | $31.31 |
DXCM | AMC | $67.05 | 1,235,850 | 8.74% | $69.68 | $72.78 |
EXR | AMC | $77.92 | 1,101,570 | 4.00% | $78.25 | $77.38 |
FANG | AMC | $96.65 | 1,455,760 | 1.93% | $93.16 | $90.30 |
FMC | AMC | $76.65 | 1,107,800 | 5.78% | $76.57 | $74.86 |
GPT | AMC | $30.18 | 1,009,490 | 1.30% | $30.01 | $30.19 |
HLF | AMC | $67.24 | 1,075,880 | 5.75% | $70.56 | $70.58 |
OHI | AMC | $31.06 | 2,413,720 | 3.58% | $33.31 | $33.30 |
OKE | AMC | $56.46 | 4,427,010 | 2.50% | $54.68 | $51.88 |
OKS | AMC | $51.07 | 1,056,610 | 0.85% | $48.79 | $49.15 |
PXD | AMC | $161.41 | 1,629,270 | 4.20% | $162.19 | $159.69 |
RMD | AMC | $77.39 | 1,172,260 | 6.67% | $77.58 | $77.56 |
Wednesday, August 2:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, Gallup US Job Creation Index – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM, Japan PMI Composite – 8:30PM, China General Services PMI – 9:00PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
AME | BMO | $61.85 | 1,273,270 | 1.58% | $61.49 | $60.94 |
CAH | BMO | $77.61 | 1,971,670 | 1.92% | $77.28 | $78.06 |
DLPH | BMO | $89.95 | 1,985,670 | 4.67% | $91.45 | $89.18 |
EOG | BMO | $95.42 | 3,336,940 | 2.07% | $93.53 | $91.36 |
ETR | BMO | $76.25 | 1,012,700 | 1.05% | $75.98 | $77.41 |
EXC | BMO | $38.40 | 4,950,270 | 1.15% | $37.26 | $36.70 |
FIS | BMO | $90.83 | 1,535,160 | 2.92% | $90.03 | $87.53 |
GRMN | BMO | $51.32 | 1,059,170 | 5.13% | $51.41 | $51.27 |
HUM | BMO | $233.08 | 1,426,040 | 1.63% | $235.62 | $237.41 |
MAC | BMO | $57.85 | 1,291,440 | 1.52% | $59.16 | $58.81 |
MBLY | BMO | $63.33 | 2,860,710 | 2.79% | $63.32 | $62.97 |
MDCO | BMO | $38.41 | 1,161,510 | 2.93% | $38.51 | $40.45 |
MDLZ | BMO | $43.93 | 7,098,920 | 2.67% | $43.95 | $44.04 |
OXY | BMO | $62.73 | 4,787,670 | 3.19% | $60.57 | $60.00 |
Q | BMO | $90.65 | 1,022,260 | 1.89% | $90.75 | $90.09 |
QSR | BMO | $60.28 | 1,093,450 | 4.01% | $61.27 | $61.48 |
RAI | BMO | $65.40 | 7,666,680 | 1.78% | $65.23 | $65.45 |
RIO | BMO | $46.61 | 3,263,610 | 1.37% | $45.19 | $42.32 |
SBGI | BMO | $36.75 | 2,215,180 | 3.44% | $34.61 | $34.45 |
SO | BMO | $47.51 | 4,509,590 | 1.23% | $47.31 | $49.24 |
SPR | BMO | $60.89 | 1,015,710 | 7.47% | $60.65 | $58.44 |
TAP | BMO | $89.11 | 2,002,780 | 1.45% | $88.22 | $87.92 |
TEX | BMO | $38.69 | 1,646,410 | 2.23% | $38.64 | $37.05 |
TWX | BMO | $102.73 | 3,673,550 | 1.11% | $100.09 | $101.08 |
VMC | BMO | $124.00 | 1,077,040 | 4.32% | $125.29 | $128.72 |
VNTV | BMO | $64.02 | 1,975,540 | 1.75% | $64.14 | $62.55 |
VOYA | BMO | $39.00 | 1,500,080 | 3.97% | $37.75 | $36.95 |
AIG | AMC | $65.27 | 5,845,420 | 5.52% | $64.48 | $64.15 |
BIVV | AMC | $62.53 | 1,398,650 | 1.33% | $62.18 | $61.29 |
BLUE | AMC | $96.70 | 1,021,550 | 7.14% | $96.77 | $108.42 |
BMRN | AMC | $88.34 | 1,247,310 | 1.60% | $88.41 | $93.02 |
CA | AMC | $30.94 | 3,363,120 | 2.67% | $34.22 | $33.71 |
CAKE | AMC | $47.67 | 1,147,020 | 4.81% | $49.87 | $49.69 |
CC | AMC | $48.09 | 3,034,610 | 6.95% | $45.83 | $41.72 |
CLVS | AMC | $98.02 | 1,925,760 | 4.85% | $87.39 | $90.10 |
CRUS | AMC | $62.16 | 1,004,970 | 10.05% | $63.85 | $63.59 |
CTXS | AMC | $79.71 | 1,404,890 | 2.80% | $81.55 | $80.05 |
DATA | AMC | $64.85 | 1,124,810 | 9.64% | $64.26 | $63.76 |
HOLX | AMC | $44.12 | 2,548,410 | 4.11% | $45.02 | $45.47 |
HTA | AMC | $30.32 | 2,777,410 | 1.50% | $30.31 | $31.07 |
K | AMC | $67.65 | 2,278,640 | 1.96% | $66.91 | $68.39 |
LVLT | AMC | $58.61 | 2,270,280 | 3.80% | $58.13 | $59.23 |
MET | AMC | $55.25 | 4,966,030 | 4.34% | $54.98 | $54.32 |
MOH | AMC | $70.00 | 1,368,410 | 9.66% | $70.40 | $70.12 |
NXPI | AMC | $110.22 | 3,234,700 | 1.54% | $109.70 | $109.66 |
PRU | AMC | $113.20 | 1,808,100 | 2.84% | $111.80 | $108.30 |
PRXL | AMC | $87.38 | 1,321,630 | 7.32% | $87.41 | $87.33 |
QRVO | AMC | $69.00 | 1,850,050 | 5.90% | $68.40 | $67.43 |
SYMC | AMC | $31.03 | 7,963,450 | 4.66% | $30.93 | $29.47 |
TDOC | AMC | $33.75 | 1,003,500 | 13.37% | $34.55 | $33.84 |
TS | AMC | $31.64 | 1,982,480 | 2.83% | $32.20 | $31.31 |
TSLA | AMC | $335.07 | 8,041,690 | 3.59% | $331.96 | $345.06 |
TTWO | AMC | $80.10 | 2,398,650 | 4.12% | $78.71 | $76.59 |
WMB | AMC | $31.99 | 5,871,700 | 3.80% | $31.50 | $29.89 |
WPZ | AMC | $41.08 | 1,149,420 | 3.73% | $41.11 | $39.04 |
XPO | AMC | $60.09 | 1,988,690 | 7.41% | $61.04 | $61.98 |
Thursday, August 3:
Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30,Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Gallup Good Jobs Rate – 8:30AM, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, PMI Services Index – 9:45AM, Factory Orders _ 10:00, ISM Non-manufacturing Index – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ABC | BMO | $93.97 | 1,337,930 | 5.60% | $92.66 | $94.08 |
AEE | BMO | $56.16 | 1,454,070 | 1.00% | $55.73 | $55.35 |
AER | BMO | $49.04 | 1,358,860 | 1.52% | $48.84 | $47.47 |
AET | BMO | $155.29 | 2,181,840 | 1.10% | $155.18 | $153.97 |
AGN | BMO | $253.01 | 2,188,600 | 3.10% | $250.40 | $247.60 |
AKRX | BMO | $33.63 | 2,320,480 | 7.13% | $33.64 | $33.56 |
ALNY | BMO | $82.63 | 1,097,750 | 8.50% | $80.14 | $81.47 |
AON | BMO | $138.67 | 1,175,240 | 1.79% | $138.10 | $136.75 |
APA | BMO | $50.01 | 3,618,860 | 3.74% | $48.85 | $47.56 |
AXTA | BMO | $31.98 | 1,417,030 | 0.79% | $32.73 | $32.33 |
BDX | BMO | $201.98 | 1,773,540 | 1.83% | $202.66 | $199.32 |
BERY | BMO | $56.03 | 1,017,130 | 3.55% | $57.29 | $57.48 |
BLL | BMO | $41.89 | 2,214,250 | 5.86% | $42.47 | $42.29 |
CHD | BMO | $53.30 | 1,442,750 | 4.64% | $53.24 | $52.77 |
CI | BMO | $173.97 | 1,451,790 | 2.07% | $173.71 | $170.93 |
CNQ | BMO | $30.95 | 2,483,990 | 5.31% | $30.11 | $29.41 |
COMM | BMO | $36.94 | 2,875,060 | 8.08% | $35.38 | $36.62 |
CTSH | BMO | $69.32 | 3,842,330 | 3.92% | $69.56 | $68.03 |
CXO | BMO | $130.56 | 1,342,790 | 3.25% | $128.07 | $123.61 |
DISH | BMO | $63.94 | 2,146,400 | 2.13% | $64.92 | $64.27 |
DUK | BMO | $84.91 | 2,477,360 | 1.18% | $84.44 | $84.93 |
ENB | BMO | $41.10 | 3,282,280 | 1.86% | $41.39 | $39.96 |
GPN | BMO | $94.52 | 1,062,950 | 4.26% | $93.49 | $91.77 |
HPP | BMO | $32.40 | 1,179,010 | 0.69% | $32.30 | $33.34 |
ICE | BMO | $66.37 | 2,593,790 | 2.73% | $66.08 | $65.69 |
LDOS | BMO | $53.60 | 1,172,350 | 3.39% | $53.35 | $52.60 |
LNC | BMO | $72.81 | 1,445,640 | 3.07% | $71.30 | $68.84 |
PGR | BMO | $47.22 | 3,036,020 | 1.94% | $46.14 | $45.56 |
PH | BMO | $164.75 | 1,074,720 | 2.34% | $165.27 | $161.53 |
PPL | BMO | $38.18 | 3,367,960 | 0.89% | $38.02 | $38.33 |
PRGO | BMO | $74.47 | 1,526,160 | 7.98% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
PWR | BMO | $33.58 | 1,709,280 | 2.97% | $33.57 | $33.04 |
RLGY | BMO | $33.01 | 1,117,940 | 6.16% | $33.56 | $32.31 |
SHPG | BMO | $168.29 | 1,260,150 | 3.39% | $164.73 | $167.43 |
SRE | BMO | $113.04 | 1,217,920 | 1.79% | $113.08 | $112.00 |
TEVA | BMO | $32.34 | 7,810,590 | 4.87% | $32.34 | $32.31 |
TRGP | BMO | $46.77 | 2,220,180 | 4.46% | $46.32 | $43.84 |
VWR | BMO | $33.00 | 1,363,740 | 2.22% | $32.99 | $33.05 |
WRK | BMO | $57.32 | 1,267,140 | 2.37% | $58.99 | $58.04 |
WYN | BMO | $103.62 | 1,047,400 | 7.23% | $103.11 | $102.75 |
YUM | BMO | $75.00 | 2,188,180 | 2.08% | $74.40 | $74.00 |
AAOI | AMC | $96.64 | 3,566,810 | 15.36% | $91.89 | $80.70 |
ACIA | AMC | $43.55 | 1,095,850 | 21.4% | $42.45 | $42.16 |
ATVI | AMC | $61.45 | 6,747,220 | 6.18% | $61.21 | $59.52 |
BZUN | AMC | $33.69 | 2,057,080 | 6.00% | $31.39 | $27.85 |
ED | AMC | $82.38 | 1,433,790 | 0.92% | $81.82 | $82.58 |
FLR | AMC | $44.58 | 1,367,280 | 5.48% | $45.23 | $45.22 |
FLT | AMC | $152.05 | 1,392,110 | 7.11% | $149.71 | $146.96 |
GRUB | AMC | $46.64 | 2,000,890 | 15.71% | $45.84 | $45.29 |
KHC | AMC | $87.64 | 2,742,920 | 1.85% | $86.41 | $86.29 |
LNT | AMC | $40.47 | 1,263,870 | 0.89% | $40.62 | $40.65 |
MCHP | AMC | $80.70 | 2,449,980 | 4.63% | $81.48 | $79.59 |
MNST | AMC | $53.41 | 2,179,650 | 5.51% | $52.59 | $51.55 |
MSI | AMC | $91.01 | 1,002,970 | 3.44% | $90.17 | $88.95 |
NBIX | AMC | $49.46 | 1,089,840 | 2.47% | $48.02 | $47.75 |
RDUS | AMC | $42.13 | 1,261,550 | 4.49% | $42.98 | $44.20 |
REG | AMC | $66.16 | 1,203,800 | 1.68% | $64.64 | $63.34 |
SPNC | AMC | $38.45 | 1,410,670 | 4.59% | $38.45 | $34.03 |
VIAB | AMC | $35.66 | 5,506,300 | 3.52% | $35.49 | $34.73 |
WTW | AMC | $37.16 | 1,262,280 | 12.71% | $37.30 | $34.96 |
YELP | AMC | $33.02 | 3,568,720 | 13.69% | $32.29 | $31.06 |
Friday, August 4:
Economic: July Employment Situation – 8:30, International Trade – 8:30, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.
Other: Bank of England Announcement and Minutes – 7:00AM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
BAH | BMO | $34.26 | 1,285,830 | 4.56% | $33.66 | $33.20 |
CBOE | BMO | $93.49 | 1,122,270 | 1.87% | $93.17 | $91.52 |
HSBC | BMO | $48.90 | 1,703,710 | 4.21% | $48.44 | $46.39 |
NWL | BMO | $52.07 | 3,624,170 | 6.35% | $53.18 | $53.09 |
TSN | BMO | $63.00 | 2,769,960 | 6.14% | $61.86 | $61.08 |
Monday, August 7:
Economic: Gallup US Consumer Pending Measure – 8:30, Labor Market Conditions Index – 10:00, TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.
International Economic: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00AM.
Other: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard to discuss the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the America’s Cotton Marketing Cooperatives 2017 Conference in Nashville, with audience and media Q&A – 11:45AM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to take part in a moderated audience Q&A session at the Sioux Falls Rotary Club event in Sioux Falls, SD – 1:25PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/28 Close | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
KITE | BMO | $111.43 | 1,270,970 | 10.48% | $107.68 | $103.11 |
ALB | AMC | $116.50 | 1,137,630 | 4.26% | $117.85 | $111.67 |
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 7.24-7.31.2017
July 24, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything that I say.” – Marshall McLuhan
Chaos is God’s body. Order is the Devil’s chains.” – John Updike
“The Ford administration took over in a very turbulent, controversial period, we healed the wounds and we restored public trust in the White House and the presidency.” – Gerald Ford
“Chaos was the law of nature; Order was the dream of man.” – Henry Adams
Listen to me every Monday morning on “Stocks and Jocks.” The show combines the market insight of Louis Rukeyser, a dash of sports, and the humor of Seinfeld with truly honest stock market and economic advice. It is interactive, listener-driven and hosted by financial industry gurus Tom “The Chief” Haugh and Jon “Dr. J” Najarian. Stream it live Monday through Friday from 6:00AM to 8:00AM Central at Stocks and Jocks.
All the major equity indexes, except for the Dow Jones Industrials, showed gains last week. Earnings have allowed the major market to ignore the chaos inside the Beltway and the upcoming FOMC meeting. Nearly 20% of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings for the second quarter. Analysts’ earnings expectations have been exceed by 74% of the companies. Earnings growth this quarter is expected to approach 10%. Tech stocks continue to lead the way.
There are earnings announcements from FANG members Alphabet (GOOGLE), Facebook, and Amazon.com. These stocks will continue to be bellwethers for the market. Any disappointments in earnings, sales or guidance will have an immediate downward effect on the market.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
Index | 21-Jul | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21580.07 | (57.67) | -0.27% | 9.20% | 9.55% (VXD) |
S&P 500 (SPX) | 2472.54 | 15.04 | 0.61% | 10.47% | 9.36% (VIX) |
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5921.52 | 83.44 | 1.43% | 21.75% | 14.36% (VXN) |
Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1435.84 | 7.02 | 0.49% | 5.80% | 13.85% (RVX) |
S&P 100 (OEX) | 1087.74 | 4.61 | 0.43% | 9.71% | 7.77% (VXO) |
Crude Oil (CLU7) | 45.60 | (1.08) | -2.31% | -15.38% | 39.25%(OVX) |
Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4637.34 | (147.00) | -3.07% | 14.46% | NA |
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 9.36 | (0.15) | -1.58% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The VIX and related long VIX products are hovering just above all-time lows. The July standard/monthly VIX futures settled at 9.85 – a new monthly settlement low. Volatility levels are so low that three of the VIX ETPs underwent splits to reflect the downward trend. The prices for the UVXY, VIXY and SVXY are different from the prices disseminated last week. Each of these ProShares ETFs underwent splits last week.
The SVXY underwent a forward split at a 2:1 split ratio. The forward splits will decrease the price per share of each fund with a proportionate increase in the number of shares outstanding. For the 2-for-1 splits, every pre-split share will result in the receipt of two post-split shares, which will be priced at one-half the net asset value (“NAV”) of a pre-split share.
The UVXY and VIXY underwent reverse splits. Both were split at a 1:4 ratio. The reverse splits increase the price per share of each fund with a proportionate decrease in the number of shares outstanding. For the 1-for-4 reverse split, every four pre-split shares will result in the receipt of one post-split share, which will be priced four times higher than the NAV of a pre-split share. The following chart reflects the split pricing for all three products.
Russell Rhoads’ VIX trade of the week is a big one. On mid-day on Friday with VIX at 9.76 and the standard October contract at 13.70, a trader came into the VIX pit with a three-leg bullish trade. They sold 262,441 VIX Oct 12 Puts for 0.75, purchased 262,441 VIX Oct 15 Calls for 1.45 and then finished things up with a sale of 524,882 VIX Oct 25 Calls at 0.45. The ratio of ratio of the trade is short 1 Oct 12 Put, 1 Oct 15 call and short 2 Oct 25 calls, The trade was done for a net credit of 0.20. A volatility event between now and October.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Indexes | Ticker | 21-Jul | 14-Jul | Change | % Change |
CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 9.36 | 9.51 | (0.15) | -1.58% |
VIX August Future (8/18/2017) | VXQ7 | 11.375 | 12.025 | (0.65) | -5.41% |
VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 12.675 | 12.975 | (0.30) | -2.31% |
VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 13.475 | 13.700 | (0.23) | -1.64% |
CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 7.10 | 9.26 | (2.16) | -23.33% |
CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 12.06 | 12.23 | (0.17) | -1.39% |
CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 13.89 | 14.01 | (0.12) | -0.86% |
VIX of VIX | VVIX | 77.86 | 82.20 | (4.34) | -5.28% |
CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 134.53 | 137.71 | (3.18) | -2.31% |
Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 29.79 | 34.24 | (4.45) | -13.00% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 11.20 | 12.07 | (0.87) | -7.21% |
ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 37.31 | 40.00 | (2.69) | -6.72% |
iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.55 | 21.84 | (0.29) | -1.33% |
Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 90.96 | 85.00 | 5.96 | 7.01% |
Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 94.25 | 88.19 | 6.06 | 6.87% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
This will be a very big week for announcements – earnings and economic. The last week of July sees the release of major economic reports; new and existing home sales, as well as durable goods and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The events with the ability to be major market movers are Fed’s July meeting and the first estimate on second-quarter GDP.
The FANG stocks (Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google/Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) have been the fuel powering this leg of the current bull market. Three of the four FANG stocks are announcing earnings this week.
It is earnings season! Earnings announcements will be coming fast and furious this week. The week starts with an after-the-close announcement by Alphabet (GOOGL.) Earnings highlights for the coming week include: Alphabet, AT&T, McDonalds, Mondelez Int’l, Eli Lilly, 3M, Biogen, Caterpillar, Amgen, Kimberly-Clark, DuPont, United Technologies, Facebook. Ford, Gilead Sciences, Coca Cola, Boeing, Procter&Gamble, MasterCard, Comcast, Amazon.com, Verizon, Intel. Starbucks, Dow Chemical, UPS, Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, Chevron, and Exxon-Mobil. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“You need chaos in your soul to give birth to a dancing star.” Friedrich Nietzsche
“Always go too far, because that’s where you’ll find the truth” – Albert Camus
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, July 24:
Economic: PMI Composite Flash – 8:30, Existing Home Sales – 10:00.
International Economic: Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00AM.
Other: Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ITW | BMO | $147.29 | 1,238,920 | 2.42% | $146.24 | $145.69 |
PHG | BMO | $36.08 | 1,496,890 | 3.60% | $36.23 | $36.66 |
SWK | BMO | $146.79 | 1,044,540 | 2.52% | $146.22 | $143.50 |
VFC | BMO | $58.65 | 3,043,720 | 3.58% | $56.33 | $56.34 |
CDNS | AMC | $34.98 | 1,885,450 | 6.18% | $34.55 | $34.12 |
GOOG | AMC | $972.92 | 1,659,910 | 1.93% | $948.23 | $935.35 |
GOOGL | AMC | $993.84 | 1,783,040 | 2.17% | $970.66 | $956.00 |
Tuesday, July 25:
Economic: Redbook – 8:55, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, S&P Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00.
International: Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Survey – 6:00AM.
Other: FOMC meeting begins.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
CAT | BMO | $106.59 | 4,771,650 | 3.92% | $108.03 | $106.15 |
CIT | BMO | $48.99 | 3,316,170 | 1.44% | $49.11 | $48.23 |
CNC | BMO | $84.73 | 1,725,210 | 4.86% | $83.03 | $81.92 |
DD | BMO | $84.54 | 2,359,710 | 2.21% | $83.94 | $82.81 |
EDU | BMO | $79.11 | 1,388,230 | 4.76% | $78.34 | $76.27 |
GM | BMO | $36.07 | 12,536,600 | 2.71% | $35.89 | $35.24 |
HCA | BMO | $85.73 | 1,766,250 | 0.72% | $86.14 | $85.48 |
KMB | BMO | $125.28 | 1,608,170 | 2.67% | $124.97 | $128.83 |
LLY | BMO | $84.66 | 3,561,720 | 1.53% | $83.51 | $82.94 |
MCD | BMO | $153.92 | 3,415,690 | 3.44% | $155.09 | $153.20 |
MMM | BMO | $211.16 | 1,792,600 | 1.47% | $211.14 | $210.82 |
NEM | BMO | $34.39 | 5,328,620 | 3.30% | $33.21 | $33.27 |
PCAR | BMO | $68.87 | 1,887,270 | 2.61% | $68.38 | $65.94 |
ST | BMO | $44.37 | 1,595,170 | 2.46% | $44.67 | $43.09 |
STX | BMO | $39.58 | 5,015,000 | 9.78% | $38.94 | $40.10 |
TROW | BMO | $80.83 | 1,716,570 | 4.37% | $78.55 | $76.67 |
AKAM | AMC | $52.13 | 2,541,800 | 13.45% | $50.77 | $50.53 |
AMGN | AMC | $180.21 | 3,399,800 | 4.01% | $175.58 | $170.93 |
AMP | AMC | $136.34 | 1,061,190 | 3.34% | $133.00 | $131.22 |
APC | AMC | $44.06 | 5,714,180 | 2.98% | $44.13 | $45.52 |
CB | AMC | $147.00 | 1,325,750 | 2.03% | $145.51 | $146.09 |
CMG | AMC | $345.34 | 1,133,500 | 5.50% | $390.62 | $411.86 |
CNI | AMC | $81.98 | 1,038,510 | 2.28% | $82.99 | $81.23 |
EQR | AMC | $67.16 | 1,653,830 | 2.19% | $65.62 | $66.41 |
T | AMC | $36.51 | 21,691,200 | 1.30% | $36.48 | $37.41 |
TSS | AMC | $61.57 | 1,204,260 | 6.15% | $60.36 | $59.72 |
TXN | AMC | $81.70 | 4,579,520 | 3.16% | $80.80 | $79.36 |
UTX | AMC | $123.49 | 2,686,420 | 1.66% | $123.07 | $122.19 |
ZION | AMC | $43.54 | 2,992,310 | 2.59% | $44.51 | $43.49 |
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ALK | BMO | $88.25 | 1,270,550 | 2.79% | $92.16 | $91.42 |
ANTM | BMO | $190.65 | 1,512,260 | 3.88% | $191.70 | $190.72 |
APH | BMO | $75.57 | 1,092,190 | 1.63% | $74.55 | $74.41 |
BAX | BMO | $62.67 | 2,925,960 | 2.62% | $61.64 | $60.20 |
CCE | BMO | $42.07 | 1,224,800 | 3.12% | $41.68 | $41.37 |
DHI | BMO | $36.61 | 3,838,030 | 3.72% | $36.58 | $35.35 |
DISH | BMO | $64.72 | 2,279,100 | 2.13% | $65.04 | $64.27 |
FLIR | BMO | $38.12 | 1,051,960 | 4.79% | $37.27 | $36.27 |
GD | BMO | $204.55 | 1,061,530 | 2.59% | $201.09 | $200.65 |
GLW | BMO | $31.85 | 6,144,690 | 3.56% | $31.01 | $30.34 |
GSK | BMO | $42.66 | 2,783,810 | 1.21% | $42.41 | $43.12 |
HES | BMO | $43.46 | 4,250,150 | 2.18% | $43.37 | $43.00 |
HLT | BMO | $62.47 | 3,596,160 | 2.51% | $62.21 | $63.97 |
HSY | BMO | $106.39 | 1,044,150 | 3.08% | $105.46 | $109.56 |
IR | BMO | $91.67 | 1,575,620 | 2.90% | $92.00 | $91.16 |
KO | BMO | $45.03 | 10,869,400 | 1.43% | $44.58 | $45.01 |
MBLY | BMO | $63.30 | 2,919,660 | 2.79% | $63.17 | $62.96 |
MDCO | BMO | $39.47 | 1,236,820 | 2.93% | $38.22 | $38.49 |
NEE | BMO | $144.37 | 1,829,360 | 1.65% | $141.30 | $141.44 |
NSC | BMO | $117.85 | 1,631,990 | 2.63% | $122.37 | $120.27 |
SIX | BMO | $55.87 | 1,037,610 | 4.64% | $58.07 | $58.69 |
STT | BMO | $90.99 | 1,820,600 | 4.32% | $91.36 | $89.82 |
SU | BMO | $30.64 | 3,167,660 | 1.99% | $29.48 | $29.45 |
TEL | BMO | $82.03 | 1,464,690 | 2.66% | $81.07 | $80.43 |
TMO | BMO | $182.18 | 1,429,190 | 3.24% | $179.68 | $177.45 |
WEC | BMO | $63.37 | 1,541,930 | 1.46% | $61.52 | $62.42 |
WM | BMO | $75.37 | 1,618,650 | 1.66% | $74.34 | $73.93 |
AEM | AMC | $46.05 | 1,607,100 | 4.72% | $44.63 | $46.69 |
BA | AMC | $212.14 | 2,901,710 | 2.68% | $207.22 | $201.03 |
DFS | AMC | $62.53 | 3,352,270 | 1.62% | $61.17 | $61.35 |
ESRX | AMC | $62.50 | 4,727,460 | 3.21% | $62.19 | $63.81 |
EW | AMC | $118.01 | 1,335,020 | 10.41% | $117.57 | $117.17 |
FB | AMC | $164.43 | 17,974,900 | 2.34% | $158.96 | $156.03 |
FTNT | AMC | $40.37 | 1,720,960 | 7.52% | $39.80 | $39.30 |
GILD | AMC | $73.76 | 8,625,040 | 5.29% | $70.78 | $68.75 |
KNX | AMC | $35.40 | 1,542,540 | 2.64% | $35.75 | $36.31 |
LRCX | AMC | $163.53 | 2,343,130 | 3.26% | $156.49 | $152.18 |
LVS | AMC | $62.36 | 3,406,950 | 4.39% | $61.90 | $62.96 |
NOW | AMC | $108.19 | 2,076,500 | 4.92% | $109.83 | $106.01 |
O | AMC | $57.31 | 1,813,190 | 2.24% | $55.58 | $55.58 |
ORLY | AMC | $188.19 | 1,909,590 | 4.82% | $181.47 | $202.24 |
PYPL | AMC | $58.67 | 8,925,340 | 6.49% | $56.93 | $55.10 |
SCI | AMC | $34.10 | 1,013,020 | 3.33% | $33.93 | $33.16 |
TER | AMC | $35.13 | 2,841,120 | 3.98% | $33.53 | $32.57 |
TSCO | AMC | $52.61 | 2,440,320 | 3.45% | $51.16 | $53.81 |
UDR | AMC | $39.37 | 1,345,170 | 1.87% | $38.32 | $39.03 |
VRTX | AMC | $163.17 | 2,063,260 | 0.27% | $136.49 | $144.07 |
WFM | AMC | $41.71 | 8,204,550 | 3.72% | $41.90 | $38.40 |
XL | AMC | $46.41 | 1,475,140 | 2.92% | $45.36 | $44.39 |
XLNX | AMC | $64.88 | 3,381,610 | 3.62% | $66.53 | $65.96 |
Thursday July 27:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Durable Goods Orders – 8:30, International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index – 11:00, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: Japan CPI, Household Spending, Unemployment Rate, and Retail Sales – 7:30PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
ADP | BMO | $104.58 | 2,802,580 | 4.70% | $102.52 | $102.96 |
AEP | BMO | $69.98 | 2,524,550 | 0.77% | $68.66 | $70.54 |
AIV | BMO | $44.23 | 1,280,670 | 1.88% | $43.13 | $43.44 |
ALXN | BMO | $131.79 | 3,164,670 | 3.70% | $125.94 | $121.58 |
AMT | BMO | $136.90 | 1,860,470 | 0.96% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
AZN | BMO | $34.05 | 4,383,660 | 3.94% | $33.42 | $33.93 |
BMY | BMO | $55.65 | 7,627,490 | 4.20% | $55.21 | $55.76 |
BUD | BMO | $114.74 | 1,522,750 | 3.99% | $113.25 | $112.78 |
BWA | BMO | $44.92 | 1,933,260 | 2.06% | $45.82 | $43.50 |
CBG | BMO | $37.90 | 1,884,040 | 4.11% | $37.08 | $36.36 |
CELG | BMO | $137.74 | 3,952,220 | 3.11% | $133.98 | $128.28 |
CHTR | BMO | $350.07 | 1,536,990 | 3.06% | $341.02 | $338.03 |
CL | BMO | $73.27 | 3,406,640 | 2.37% | $72.55 | $74.51 |
CMCSA | BMO | $39.63 | 18,195,800 | 2.24% | $39.08 | $40.03 |
COP | BMO | $42.65 | 8,004,360 | 1.94% | $43.27 | $44.61 |
DFT | BMO | $60.69 | 1,157,510 | 3.54% | $60.30 | $62.50 |
DNKN | BMO | $53.62 | 1,207,260 | 2.20% | $54.01 | $54.80 |
DOW | BMO | $66.14 | 5,404,360 | 1.33% | $65.61 | $64.69 |
DPS | BMO | $91.38 | 1,323,970 | 1.53% | $90.02 | $92.70 |
EQT | BMO | $62.94 | 3,757,840 | 3.98% | $61.23 | $56.48 |
EXAS | BMO | $39.17 | 3,411,730 | 20.96% | $38.35 | $35.62 |
GLPI | BMO | $37.66 | 1,250,050 | 0.72% | $37.23 | $37.34 |
GRUB | BMO | $45.25 | 2,288,280 | 15.71% | $44.99 | $44.88 |
GT | BMO | $35.40 | 2,576,500 | 3.93% | $35.91 | $34.81 |
HP | BMO | $54.13 | 2,182,270 | 4.44% | $54.95 | $54.60 |
IP | BMO | $56.64 | 2,238,350 | 2.41% | $57.44 | $57.18 |
IVZ | BMO | $36.05 | 2,594,000 | 2.17% | $36.07 | $35.38 |
JCI | BMO | $44.19 | 4,619,460 | 3.46% | $43.68 | $42.76 |
LKQ | BMO | $33.50 | 1,836,850 | 3.39% | $32.52 | $32.41 |
LUV | BMO | $60.28 | 4,566,250 | 7.68% | $62.07 | $61.69 |
MA | BMO | $129.27 | 3,230,240 | 2.45% | $125.86 | $124.36 |
MAS | BMO | $38.30 | 2,586,340 | 5.42% | $38.70 | $38.48 |
MCK | BMO | $165.92 | 1,683,020 | 10.22% | $165.82 | $164.10 |
MGM | BMO | $34.03 | 7,448,320 | 4.35% | $31.99 | $32.27 |
MJN | BMO | $89.98 | 1,930,800 | 3.80% | $89.90 | $89.38 |
MMC | BMO | $80.01 | 1,709,190 | 1.97% | $78.66 | $78.89 |
MO | BMO | $73.42 | 5,452,300 | 0.54% | $73.65 | $75.48 |
MPC | BMO | $55.34 | 4,321,470 | 1.93% | $54.38 | $53.28 |
MPLX | BMO | $35.84 | 1,775,760 | 2.41% | $34.98 | $33.78 |
NLSN | BMO | $39.42 | 3,142,530 | 6.32% | $38.24 | $38.20 |
PCG | BMO | $68.26 | 2,609,960 | 0.53% | $66.08 | $67.19 |
PF | BMO | $61.15 | 1,722,930 | 1.97% | $59.12 | $59.77 |
PG | BMO | $88.61 | 6,462,290 | 2.39% | $87.54 | $88.25 |
PX | BMO | $134.74 | 1,308,010 | 0.76% | $134.06 | $134.03 |
RTN | BMO | $169.37 | 1,388,960 | 2.21% | $167.13 | $164.44 |
SAVE | BMO | $50.12 | 1,130,330 | 1.03% | $52.53 | $52.62 |
SPGI | BMO | $153.85 | 1,104,640 | 1.24% (3*) | $149.47 | $148.16 |
TOT | BMO | $49.62 | 1,908,960 | 0.63% | $49.37 | $49.73 |
TPX | BMO | $55.95 | 1,245,860 | 7.16% | $53.00 | $51.74 |
UPS | BMO | $112.68 | 2,587,420 | 2.23% | $111.42 | $110.94 |
VLO | BMO | $67.78 | 4,110,830 | 3.69% | $67.85 | $66.23 |
VNTV | BMO | $64.26 | 1,955,780 | 1.75% | $63.21 | $62.55 |
VZ | BMO | $44.23 | 15,307,200 | 2.44% | $43.45 | $44.90 |
XEL | BMO | $47.42 | 2,597,340 | 1.02% | $46.05 | $46.52 |
ZBH | BMO | $129.61 | 1,481,420 | 6.54% | $129.31 | $128.96 |
ACHC | AMC | $50.89 | 1,086,200 | 4.55% | $49.51 | $48.02 |
AFL | AMC | $77.57 | 1,579,860 | 2.02% | $77.79 | $78.53 |
ALGN | AMC | $158.87 | 1,280,830 | 5.93% | $154.58 | $151.28 |
AMZN | AMC | $1,025.67 | 3,773,550 | 2.54% | $1,006.84 | $992.91 |
BCR | AMC | $322.22 | 1,085,990 | 2.63% | $319.32 | $317.69 |
BIDU | AMC | $193.18 | 2,583,310 | 3.84% | $187.09 | $183.19 |
CAA | AMC | $37.93 | 1,324,770 | 3.88% | $36.72 | $35.88 |
CERN | AMC | $65.38 | 2,294,040 | 6.63% | $65.65 | $66.66 |
DLR | AMC | $112.46 | 1,237,090 | 1.49% | $111.69 | $115.13 |
EA | AMC | $112.22 | 3,252,010 | 4.30% | $109.56 | $110.17 |
EIX | AMC | $78.98 | 1,620,180 | 0.97% | $77.36 | $79.48 |
EMN | AMC | $85.65 | 1,129,030 | 4.96% | $85.20 | $83.85 |
ES | AMC | $61.54 | 1,255,740 | 1.01% | $60.26 | $61.45 |
EXPE | AMC | $153.94 | 1,702,040 | 2.15% | $152.55 | $150.06 |
FE | AMC | $31.74 | 4,572,340 | 1.43% | $30.02 | $30.05 |
FLS | AMC | $46.23 | 1,270,860 | 2.88% | $46.18 | $46.17 |
FSLR | AMC | $45.15 | 3,125,590 | 11.58% | $42.37 | $41.04 |
FTV | AMC | $63.25 | 1,352,350 | 2.73% (3*) | $64.14 | $63.79 |
GIMO | AMC | $38.90 | 1,185,790 | 11.33% | $38.85 | $39.27 |
HIG | AMC | $53.79 | 2,258,180 | 3.37% | $53.27 | $52.77 |
INTC | AMC | $34.73 | 22,002,400 | 3.60% | $34.29 | $34.63 |
KLAC | AMC | $99.89 | 1,245,760 | 3.30% | $98.41 | $96.69 |
MSCC | AMC | $52.92 | 1,276,300 | 5.14% | $50.46 | $49.73 |
PFG | AMC | $66.42 | 1,161,350 | 2.16% | $65.80 | $64.63 |
RSG | AMC | $64.90 | 1,107,970 | 1.65% | $64.48 | $64.05 |
SBUX | AMC | $57.98 | 7,988,860 | 2.10% | $58.21 | $59.20 |
SGEN | AMC | $54.39 | 1,069,240 | 3.92% | $53.12 | $57.62 |
SSNC | AMC | $39.59 | 1,241,210 | 4.02% | $39.43 | $38.32 |
SYK | AMC | $146.19 | 1,109,100 | 2.35% | $143.89 | $142.78 |
UNM | AMC | $47.80 | 1,203,400 | 1.69% | $47.72 | $46.61 |
WDC | AMC | $94.82 | 4,280,700 | 5.69% | $92.77 | $90.01 |
WRI | AMC | $31.04 | 1,022,160 | 0.95% | $30.59 | $30.71 |
WYNN | AMC | $134.14 | 1,967,860 | 7.38% | $133.09 | $133.34 |
Friday, July 28:
Economic: GDP – 8:30, Employment Cost Index – 8:30, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00AM, Germany CPI – 8:00AM.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the Woodbury Area/St. Paul Chamber of Commerce event in Oakdale, Minnesota, with audience Q&A – 1:30PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
AAL | BMO | $51.91 | 6,153,610 | 3.65% | $53.11 | $51.24 |
ABBV | BMO | $74.63 | 5,545,970 | 3.06% | $72.50 | $71.80 |
BEN | BMO | $46.67 | 2,151,870 | 1.08% | $46.07 | $45.34 |
BHI | BMO | $57.68 | 2,807,600 | 2.39% | $54.40 | $55.37 |
CMS | BMO | $46.75 | 1,779,930 | 0.86% | $45.95 | $46.85 |
COL | BMO | $109.31 | 1,336,200 | 3.51% | $109.07 | $107.18 |
CVX | BMO | $103.25 | 5,406,860 | 2.02% | $103.91 | $105.47 |
HCN | BMO | $73.93 | 1,648,580 | 0.94% | $73.45 | $75.12 |
IRM | BMO | $35.00 | 1,109,950 | 2.82% | $34.30 | $34.02 |
LYB | BMO | $86.87 | 2,770,650 | 2.61% | $85.47 | $83.42 |
MRK | BMO | $62.63 | 8,899,960 | 1.55% | $62.76 | $64.32 |
NOV | BMO | $33.45 | 3,285,900 | 4.59% | $33.52 | $33.30 |
PEG | BMO | $44.72 | 2,857,790 | 2.12% | $42.83 | $43.20 |
SNY | BMO | $47.71 | 1,941,950 | 1.88% | $47.99 | $48.41 |
TRP | BMO | $51.46 | 1,331,630 | 2.17% | $49.59 | $49.11 |
VTR | BMO | $68.65 | 1,724,970 | 0.75% | $67.91 | $69.39 |
WY | BMO | $34.43 | 3,419,710 | 1.66% | $32.98 | $33.07 |
XOM | BMO | $80.12 | 11,070,600 | 1.36% | $80.73 | $81.67 |
YNDX | BMO | $31.41 | 2,552,580 | 6.00% | $29.52 | $28.69 |
ALSN | AMC | $37.04 | 1,421,750 | 4.41% | $38.16 | $37.84 |
SBAC | AMC | $136.60 | 1,039,460 | 2.33% | $136.12 | $134.87 |
SLCA | AMC | $30.60 | 2,946,000 | 5.71% | $32.71 | $33.99 |
VNO | AMC | $78.69 | 1,285,420 | 1.79% | $90.26 | $87.25 |
Monday, July 31:
Economic: Chicago PMI – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.
International Economic: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 5:00AM, Eurozone HICP Flash – 6:00AM, Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.
Other: Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.
Earnings:
SYMBOL | B/A | 7/21 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
SNY | BMO | $47.71 | 1,941,950 | 1.88% | $47.99 | $48.41 |
ALSN | AMC | $37.04 | 1,421,750 | 4.41% | $38.16 | $37.84 |
SBAC | AMC | $136.60 | 1,039,460 | 2.33% | $136.12 | $134.87 |
SLCA | AMC | $30.60 | 2,946,000 | 5.71% | $32.71 | $33.99 |
VNO | AMC | $78.69 | 1,285,420 | 1.79% | $90.26 | $87.25 |
Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 7.17-7.24.2017
July 17, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“I don’t necessarily agree with everything that I say.” – Marshall McLuhan
“The more injuries you get, the smarter you get.” – Mikhail Baryshnikov
” Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors” – African Proverb
This weekend’s financial headlines were not encouraging – “Summer Swoon?”, “Workers squeezed as inflation outstrips wage growth,” “Dangers of a Record Dow,” and “Stocks Continue their Long and Eerie Ascent.” These alarms are raised on a quarterly basis as the markets reach new heights. Further compounding the concern is the extend period we have gone without a correction.
Successful options traders look at risk first. I have added an additional adjective – “surviving.” There is a camaraderie among market-makers who stood in the pits during the market meltdown in 1987. The survivors share the stories and, most importantly, share the lessons. I learned to always look at my dollar risk first. If I can control risk, rewards should naturally follow. Be wary.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017:
Data Source: OptionVue8
The VIX close was the lowest since 1993. The July future (VXN7), which goes of the board on the market open on Wednesday, traded as high 13.00. The CBOE history for non-VIX SPX related indexes goes back until 2007-2008. The VXST, VXMT, and VXV each made all-time lows. The VIX closed at an all-time non-holiday low. Two previous lower VIX lows included multiple three day weekends. Three day weekends and holidays all have a negative impact on the VIX.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
Data Source: OptionVue8
All eyes will be on the housing sector. Optimism in the home has been an important factor in consumer confidence levels. Housing starts and permits have not reflected this confidence. The Housing Market Index will be released on Tuesday, while Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released on Wednesday. Both were weaker than expected in April and May. Continued weakness would require analysts to reevaluate the contribution of Housing to Q2 and Q3 GDPs.
It is earnings season! The traditional start of a quarterly earnings season is the earnings announcement by Alcoa (NYSE:AA). This announcement will take place after the market close on Wednesday, July 19, 2017. You do not have to wait until Wednesday to trade significant earnings announcements. Earnings highlights for the coming week include Charles Schwab, Blackrock, Kinder Morgan, Lockheed martin, IBM, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, Johnson&Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Qualcomm, WW Grainger, Abbott Labs, eBay, Visa, Intuitive Surgical, Sherwin Williams, Microsoft, Bank of New York Mellon, PPG, Capital one, General Electric, Honeywell, Schlumberger, and Colgate-Palmolive. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Don’t wait. The time will never be just right.” – Napoleon Hill
“Always go too far, because that’s where you’ll find the truth” – Albert Camus
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when substituted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“I’ve met enough KGB colonels in my life.” – Garry Kasparov
Monday, July 17:
Economic: Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30.
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings:
Tuesday, July 18:
Economic: Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, Housing Market Index – 10:00.
International: Great Britain CPI and PPI – 4:30AM.
Other: Last day of trading for July VIX (VXN7) and associated options.
Earnings:
Wednesday, July 19:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Housing Starts – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Japan All Industry Index – 1:30AM.
Other: July VIX settles on opening.
Earnings:
Thursday, July 20:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International Economic: China Merchandise Trade Balance – 2:00AM, Germany PPI – 2:00Am, Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30AM.
Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 7:45AM.
Earnings:
Friday, July 21:
Economic: Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International Economic: No major announcements.
Earnings:
Monday, July 24:
Economic: PMI Composite Flash – 8:30, Existing Home Sales – 10:00.
International Economic: Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30AM, Eurozone Composite Flash – 4:00AM.
Other: Bank of Japan Minutes – 7:50PM.
Earnings:
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