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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 10.30-11.6.2017
October 30, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant
“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won’t see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow
“The key to risk management is never putting yourself in a position where you cannot live to fight another day.” – Dick Fuld
“In November you begin to know how long the winter will be.” – Martha Gellhorn
“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it’s one that severely compounds the risk.” – David Ignatius
Tech stocks led the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new highs. Euphoria has not accompanied these new highs. Global central bank support has resulted in an environment where every market pullback is a buying opportunity. I continue to be skeptical, wary and to this date, wrong. The markets seem to have a continuing ability to shake off and and all bad news. The major concerns are higher inflation and the appointment of a new Fed chief. Either could force central banks and the fed to take a more hawkish stance.
| Index | 27-Oct | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 23434.19 | 105.56 | 0.45% | 18.58% | 11.89% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2581.07 | 5.86 | 0.23% | 15.31% | 9.80% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 6213.47 | 104.65 | 1.71% | 27.75% | 14.30% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1508.32 | (0.96) | -0.06% | 11.14% | 13.49%(RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1140.09 | 4.83 | 0.43% | 14.99% | 8.27%(VXO) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4784.36 | (82.44) | -1.69% | 18.09% | NA |
| Crude Oil (CLz7) | 54.19 | 2.12 | 4.07% | 0.56% | 25.18%(OVX) |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1274.60 | (7.20) | -0.56% | 10.64% | 11.48%(GVZ) |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 9.80 | (0.17) | -1.71% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. The cash VIX was lower for the week, while the November through January monthly futures were higher. The behavior of the monthly futures and the CBOE longer term indexes (VXST, VXV, and VXMT) are showing near support for current volatility levels.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
| Indexes | Ticker | 27-Oct | 20-Oct | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 9.80 | 9.97 | -0.17 | -1.71% |
| VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 11.425 | 11.325 | 0.100 | 0.88% |
| VIX December Future (12/20/2017) | VXZ7 | 12.225 | 12.125 | 0.100 | 0.82% |
| VIX January Future (1/17/2018) | VXZ7 | 13.325 | 13.275 | 0.050 | 0.38% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 8.61 | 8.41 | 0.200 | 2.38% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 11.96 | 11.96 | 0.000 | 0.00% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 14.48 | 14.35 | 0.130 | 0.91% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 92.78 | 90.53 | 2.250 | 2.49% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 135.70 | 148.81 | (13.11) | -8.81% |
| Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 15.62 | 15.26 | 0.36 | 2.36% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 34.26 | 33.79 | 0.47 | 1.39% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 28.43 | 28.05 | 0.38 | 1.35% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 19.25 | 19.23 | 0.02 | 0.10% |
| Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 106.33 | 108.19 | (1.86) | -1.72% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 110.66 | 112.68 | (2.02) | -1.79% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The last few days of October and first few days of November include several important economic reports. The Fed will hold a regularly scheduled meeting on Tuesday and announce its policy decisions on Wednesday. It is “Employment Week.” A host of October employment reports will be released at the end of the week. These reports used to move the markets. In addition, we will get reports on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. Motor Vehicle sales.
Earnings announcements will be coming fast and furious this week. FANG components Facebook and Apple will announce quarterly results on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Earnings announcements include: Mondelez Int’l, MasterCard, Cummins, ADM, Pfizer, Mosaic, Ecolab, MetLife, Facebook, Estee Lauder, Qualcomm, Prudential, Marathon Oil, Williams, Yum! Brands, CBS, ADP, HCP, Apple, Apache, Starbucks and Duke Energy. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffett
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes.” – Jesse Livermore
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, October 30:
Economic: Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30, Farm Prices – 3:00.
International: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00AM, Germany Unemployment – 4:55AM, Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 6:00AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50PM.
Other: Bank of Japan Announcement.Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| ALSN | AMC | $40.97 | 1.79% | 1,847,810 | 4.54% | $39.08 | $37.87 |
| D | AMC | $80.41 | 3.28% | 2,124,520 | 1.63% | $79.63 | $78.34 |
| EIX | AMC | $78.73 | 1.31% | 1,774,440 | 0.69% | $78.78 | $78.38 |
| MAC | AMC | $57.05 | 2.96% | 1,466,310 | 2.54% | $57.20 | $55.59 |
| MDLZ | AMC | $40.91 | 1.27% | 8,443,140 | 2.08% | $41.10 | $41.02 |
| OHI | AMC | $31.32 | 7.12% | 1,835,500 | 2.88% | $31.82 | $31.87 |
| SBAC | AMC | $146.55 | 5.29% | 1,499,030 | 1.99% | $148.10 | $146.59 |
| SRE | AMC | $115.11 | 1.65% | 1,080,200 | 1.10% | $114.34 | $113.52 |
| SUM | AMC | $31.94 | 21.24% | 1,211,320 | 3.24% | $31.66 | $31.62 |
| UDR | AMC | $38.25 | 2.43% | 1,236,460 | 1.67% | $38.51 | $38.36 |
| VNO | AMC | $72.98 | 1.70% | 1,077,800 | 2.37% | $75.75 | $76.36 |
Tuesday, October 31:
Economic: Employment Cost Index – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence – 10:00.
International: Japan PMI Manufacturing Index – 8:30PM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:00PM.
Other: FOMC Meeting Begins.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| ADM | BMO | $43.01 | 2.20% | 2,842,280 | 5.45% | $43.52 | $43.37 |
| AET | BMO | $178.60 | 4.77% | 1,814,420 | 1.58% | $159.66 | $167.34 |
| AMT | BMO | $138.45 | 1.24% | 1,842,170 | 0.60% | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| BP | BMO | $38.65 | 0.27% | 4,509,400 | 2.63% | $38.84 | $38.39 |
| CMI | BMO | $178.64 | 6.64% | 1,198,170 | 4.90% | $176.01 | $173.05 |
| ETN | BMO | $79.50 | 1.40% | 2,559,190 | 3.30% | $78.73 | $77.78 |
| FIS | BMO | $95.94 | 1.29% | 1,220,310 | 1.97% | $95.22 | $94.25 |
| HCA | BMO | $76.89 | 2.47% | 2,405,130 | 1.14% | $78.13 | $76.47 |
| INCY | BMO | $115.56 | 2.84% | 1,561,860 | 2.59% | $114.78 | $113.06 |
| K | BMO | $60.55 | 1.70% | 2,733,810 | 3.05% | $61.43 | $62.49 |
| LL | BMO | $35.55 | 37.81% | 1,392,790 | 14.91% | $34.94 | $36.58 |
| MA | BMO | $146.59 | 0.70% | 3,124,460 | 2.13% | $146.02 | $143.10 |
| OLN | BMO | $35.35 | 7.48% | 1,884,530 | 5.40% | $35.09 | $35.14 |
| PEG | BMO | $49.36 | 2.53% | 2,589,390 | 1.97% | $48.90 | $47.45 |
| PFE | BMO | $35.74 | 5.23% | 17,085,000 | 1.67% | $36.16 | $35.98 |
| SERV | BMO | $45.09 | 1.51% | 1,228,080 | 6.05% | $46.28 | $46.38 |
| SHOP | BMO | $104.11 | 5.12% | 3,647,270 | 7.76% | $100.31 | $105.41 |
| APC | AMC | $47.69 | 3.42% | 4,985,230 | 1.44% | $48.31 | $48.45 |
| CHRW | AMC | $79.59 | 15.37% | 1,675,790 | 4.20% | $77.97 | $76.67 |
| CXO | AMC | $130.12 | 6.67% | 1,185,510 | 4.06% | $132.25 | $130.74 |
| EA | AMC | $115.83 | 1.78% | 2,499,160 | 1.09% | $114.94 | $115.40 |
| EVHC | AMC | $43.27 | 5.96% | 2,275,640 | 0.82% | $42.84 | $42.81 |
| EXAS | AMC | $49.33 | 13.98% | 1,571,150 | 13.57% | $48.14 | $47.28 |
| OKE | AMC | $53.43 | 8.17% | 3,016,200 | 1.86% | $55.45 | $54.95 |
| VOYA | AMC | $40.21 | 1.85% | 1,402,900 | 2.10% | $40.00 | $39.77 |
Wednesday, November 1:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report = 8:15, Treasury Refunding Announcement – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30
International Economic: No major announcements.
Other: FOMC Meeting Announcement – 2:00.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| AGN | BMO | $176.33 | 1.48% | 2,946,060 | 2.54% | $189.38 | $195.83 |
| BG | BMO | $69.96 | 1.74% | 1,014,400 | 9.98% | $70.88 | $70.59 |
| COMM | BMO | $31.73 | 3.47% | 1,700,820 | 8.08% | $32.05 | $32.38 |
| CTSH | BMO | $74.58 | 1.23% | 2,881,650 | 4.50% | $74.34 | $73.28 |
| DVN | BMO | $34.91 | 3.81% | 4,104,940 | 2.73% | $35.13 | $35.71 |
| EAT | BMO | $31.12 | 11.42% | 1,341,320 | 3.83% | $31.68 | $31.81 |
| EL | BMO | $111.79 | 3.35% | 2,168,340 | 4.90% | $110.35 | $109.25 |
| HFC | BMO | $36.10 | 5.45% | 2,854,370 | 3.79%3 | $36.28 | $35.30 |
| ICPT | BMO | $59.32 | 28.85% | 1,543,740 | 9.41% | $64.72 | $77.42 |
| LITE | BMO | $61.65 | 19.18% | 1,725,960 | 6.83% | $58.37 | $57.30 |
| MD | BMO | $43.49 | 8.53% | 1,282,090 | 6.74% | $43.33 | $43.33 |
| NVO | BMO | $48.86 | 0.22% | 1,991,450 | 8.52% | $49.70 | $49.15 |
| PPL | BMO | $37.69 | 1.56% | 2,926,890 | 0.68% | $37.70 | $38.08 |
| SBGI | BMO | $31.40 | 17.93% | 1,796,420 | 3.53% | $30.55 | $30.45 |
| SO | BMO | $52.06 | 2.51% | 4,572,820 | 1.59% | $51.75 | $50.44 |
| SPR | BMO | $79.67 | 7.08% | 1,081,600 | 7.86% | $79.87 | $79.07 |
| TAP | BMO | $80.37 | 2.87% | 1,441,160 | 2.19% | $82.83 | $82.63 |
| TEL | BMO | $88.59 | 1.43% | 1,122,650 | 2.23% | $88.18 | $85.17 |
| TEX | BMO | $46.76 | 1.68% | 1,250,040 | 2.77% | $46.18 | $44.81 |
| ZBH | BMO | $121.00 | 3.44% | 1,299,240 | 4.15% | $120.94 | $118.24 |
| CAKE | AMC | $44.18 | 25.63% | 1,365,400 | 6.04% | $43.28 | $42.44 |
| CF | AMC | $37.45 | 7.57% | 4,143,010 | 6.51% | $36.99 | $35.97 |
| CLVS | AMC | $74.35 | 17.98% | 1,593,120 | 4.87% | $78.54 | $79.12 |
| CTRP | AMC | $46.60 | 7.99% | 4,773,320 | 2.96% | $50.81 | $51.52 |
| DXCM | AMC | $44.46 | 14.71% | 2,029,600 | 8.07% | $44.92 | $56.53 |
| EFX | AMC | $108.95 | 3.61% | 3,786,560 | 3.35% | $109.25 | $104.86 |
| ES | AMC | $62.24 | 2.38% | 1,469,580 | 0.90% | $61.96 | $61.22 |
| EXR | AMC | $78.70 | 2.61% | 1,009,340 | 2.13% | $81.38 | $79.78 |
| FB | AMC | $170.63 | 0.99% | 15,285,100 | 2.35% | $173.42 | $169.15 |
| FLS | AMC | $44.74 | 6.34% | 1,398,270 | 3.88% | $44.67 | $43.55 |
| GXP | AMC | $32.40 | 1.88% | 1,788,370 | 0.71% | $32.07 | $31.20 |
| JUNO | AMC | $43.53 | 18.87% | 2,633,820 | 6.88% | $43.52 | $44.19 |
| KHC | AMC | $77.30 | 2.50% | 3,294,540 | 1.58% | $77.21 | $78.29 |
| LBTYA | AMC | $30.99 | 1.16% | 2,060,820 | 1.16% | $31.76 | $32.72 |
| LBTYK | AMC | $30.00 | 1.43% | 2,999,920 | 1.12% | $30.77 | $31.66 |
| MET | AMC | $54.21 | 1.65% | 5,238,120 | 2.55% | $53.28 | $52.14 |
| OXY | AMC | $64.62 | 1.27% | 3,542,010 | 2.84% | $64.99 | $64.24 |
| PRU | AMC | $111.89 | 1.36% | 1,798,980 | 3.22% | $110.26 | $108.41 |
| PXD | AMC | $142.31 | 5.65% | 2,129,160 | 4.59% | $143.74 | $147.19 |
| QCOM | AMC | $53.80 | 1.49% | 7,906,630 | 2.57% | $52.94 | $52.65 |
| QRVO | AMC | $71.56 | 7.54% | 1,077,590 | 1.68% | $71.34 | $70.55 |
| SGMS | AMC | $44.00 | 27.20% | 1,068,680 | 5.68% | $43.71 | $44.58 |
| SYMC | AMC | $31.86 | 3.61% | 6,188,580 | 3.56% | $32.22 | $32.56 |
| TDOC | AMC | $31.75 | 28.16% | 1,055,830 | 6.63% | $33.13 | $32.67 |
| TSLA | AMC | $326.17 | 24.15% | 5,785,630 | 5.70% | $344.49 | $350.01 |
| WBMD | AMC | $66.48 | 15.85% | 1,312,380 | 1.25% | $66.46 | $66.36 |
| XPO | AMC | $69.14 | 18.94% | 1,518,780 | 3.88% | $67.01 | $66.28 |
| YELP | AMC | $45.00 | 15.66% | 2,015,850 | 15.99% | $44.02 | $44.04 |
Thursday, November 2:
Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, , Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 455, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 5:00AM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| ABC | BMO | $78.77 | 3.40% | 1,711,590 | 6.75% | $80.97 | $81.64 |
| ADP | BMO | $117.30 | 2.23% | 4,309,180 | 5.96% | $115.38 | $112.07 |
| ALL | BMO | $93.96 | 0.88% | 2,029,120 | 3.17% | $92.70 | $92.14 |
| ALR | BMO | $50.99 | 7.11% | 1,523,300 | 3.13% | $50.35 | $49.39 |
| AN | BMO | $47.77 | 10.80% | 1,519,450 | 3.99% | $45.41 | $46.41 |
| APA | BMO | $39.59 | 7.26% | 3,683,130 | 5.06% | $41.30 | $42.92 |
| BABA | BMO | $170.32 | 8.92% | 18,040,300 | 2.68% | $175.56 | $175.62 |
| BDX | BMO | $209.84 | 1.96% | 1,134,670 | 0.80% | $207.65 | $203.12 |
| BLL | BMO | $42.73 | 7.43% | 2,088,440 | 3.61% | $42.39 | $41.84 |
| CAB | BMO | $61.50 | 14.11% | 1,276,250 | 2.80% | $61.39 | $56.73 |
| CHD | BMO | $45.76 | 5.71% | 1,421,300 | 4.15% | $46.78 | $47.30 |
| CI | BMO | $198.75 | 1.04% | 1,268,920 | 1.21% | $190.91 | $191.13 |
| CNQ | BMO | $32.83 | 2.50% | 1,812,820 | 3.92% | $32.91 | $33.30 |
| DLPH | BMO | $99.07 | 2.23% | 1,607,670 | 2.92% | $97.74 | $99.96 |
| ENB | BMO | $37.96 | 1.47% | 1,844,330 | 0.98% | $39.83 | $39.95 |
| EXC | BMO | $39.88 | 2.65% | 4,813,300 | 0.86% | $39.71 | $38.59 |
| ICE | BMO | $65.61 | 1.18% | 2,346,080 | 2.56% | $66.96 | $68.08 |
| LNC | BMO | $76.99 | 1.78% | 1,255,760 | 1.14% | $75.64 | $74.57 |
| NWL | BMO | $40.40 | 18.39% | 4,726,930 | 4.60% | $41.12 | $41.95 |
| PCG | BMO | $56.74 | 1.05% | 4,108,360 | 0.56% | $56.77 | $59.75 |
| PWR | BMO | $37.83 | 5.46% | 1,414,400 | 1.96% | $37.52 | $37.58 |
| RL | BMO | $91.26 | 7.78% | 1,268,510 | 8.16% | $88.25 | $88.05 |
| SNY | BMO | $47.54 | 0.19% | 1,080,140 | 1.73% | $49.16 | $48.94 |
| TDC | BMO | $32.57 | 12.90% | 1,453,800 | 8.35% | $32.53 | $33.03 |
| TRGP | BMO | $40.69 | 13.66% | 1,480,830 | 1.91% | $43.72 | $44.16 |
| VMC | BMO | $123.01 | 2.42% | 1,266,250 | 3.43% | $119.94 | $119.27 |
| W | BMO | $63.83 | 38.03% | 1,616,780 | 6.37% | $67.31 | $73.75 |
| WRK | BMO | $60.47 | 2.20% | 1,403,460 | 1.75% | $60.06 | $58.09 |
| YUM | BMO | $75.87 | 2.18% | 1,835,370 | 1.81% | $75.80 | $74.77 |
| ZTS | BMO | $63.74 | 1.06% | 2,120,240 | 5.09% | $65.24 | $64.56 |
| AAPL | AMC | $157.41 | 0.78% | 27,509,400 | 3.48% | $157.64 | $155.01 |
| AIG | AMC | $64.85 | 1.25% | 5,083,100 | 2.89% | $64.42 | $62.78 |
| AKRX | AMC | $32.84 | 20.01% | 2,371,840 | 2.55% | $33.19 | $32.77 |
| ALNY | AMC | $114.49 | 10.50% | 1,304,250 | 8.16% | $117.60 | $117.14 |
| ATVI | AMC | $62.06 | 1.80% | 5,799,050 | 3.45% | $61.84 | $62.66 |
| CBS | AMC | $57.04 | 3.75% | 3,163,470 | 1.96% | $57.34 | $58.48 |
| CC | AMC | $56.61 | 4.75% | 1,937,830 | 2.23% | $56.44 | $53.81 |
| CRUS | AMC | $54.26 | 7.56% | 1,023,520 | 6.86% | $53.94 | $52.94 |
| ED | AMC | $85.50 | 5.16% | 1,436,380 | 0.72% | $84.47 | $83.07 |
| FLR | AMC | $42.69 | 5.41% | 1,691,150 | 6.72% | $42.70 | $42.08 |
| HLF | AMC | $71.23 | 36.18% | 1,554,530 | 5.35% | $74.89 | $73.25 |
| LNT | AMC | $43.38 | 1.91% | 1,141,380 | 0.87% | $43.46 | $42.51 |
| LYV | AMC | $42.26 | 4.47% | 1,819,320 | 4.35% | $42.47 | $42.58 |
| MNST | AMC | $56.75 | 1.69% | 1,824,830 | 3.42% | $56.38 | $55.62 |
| MOH | AMC | $65.53 | 18.08% | 1,175,180 | 5.64% | $63.85 | $63.88 |
| SBUX | AMC | $54.91 | 1.89% | 10,265,100 | 3.01% | $54.79 | $54.90 |
Friday, November 3:
Economic: October Employment Situation Report – 8:30, International Trade = 8:30, PMI Services Index – 9:45, Factory Orders – 10:00, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count
International: No major announcements.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in moderated Q&A with Women in Housing and Finance, in Washington, with audience Q&A – 12:30PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| AEE | BMO | $61.38 | 2.39% | 1,326,400 | 0.81% | $61.21 | $59.76 |
| CBG | BMO | $39.59 | 2.55% | 1,626,470 | 4.28% | $39.67 | $38.69 |
| CNK | BMO | $36.78 | 3.63% | 1,367,710 | 1.05% | $35.95 | $37.10 |
| DUK | BMO | $87.36 | 3.00% | 2,227,390 | 0.94% | $87.49 | $85.97 |
| EOG | BMO | $96.92 | 2.91% | 2,760,990 | 0.61% | $96.71 | $95.80 |
| RLGY | BMO | $32.37 | 2.12% | 1,307,490 | 3.25% | $32.65 | $33.24 |
| XRAY | BMO | $61.37 | 3.62% | 2,054,850 | 3.26% | $60.42 | $58.57 |
Monday, November 6:
Economic: TD Ameritrade IMX – 12:30.
International: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00AM.
Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about Lessons from the Financial Crisis at a luncheon event at the Economic Club of New York, with moderated Q&A, in New York – 12:30PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 10/27 CLOSE | SHORT INT% | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| CAH | BMO | $64.75 | 2.04% | 2,233,600 | 2.05% | $65.71 | $66.59 |
| CTLT | BMO | $42.58 | 5.54% | 1,138,840 | 6.55% | $42.40 | $40.98 |
| CVS | BMO | $73.31 | 1.36% | 5,744,370 | 2.15% | $74.36 | $76.39 |
| KORS | BMO | $49.76 | 6.69% | 2,237,780 | 9.65% | $49.20 | $47.81 |
| MYL | BMO | $38.57 | 5.23% | 7,222,180 | 1.27% | $38.40 | $35.19 |
| SYY | BMO | $54.86 | 4.27% | 2,443,960 | 1.74% | $54.76 | $54.22 |
| CAR | AMC | $41.29 | 51.48% | 2,831,590 | 10.96% | $41.20 | $39.38 |
| FANG | AMC | $100.88 | 5.30% | 1,205,020 | 1.22% | $101.47 | $99.43 |
| FMC | AMC | $93.14 | 8.70% | 1,108,850 | 7.19% | $94.06 | $90.28 |
| GDDY | AMC | $45.75 | 30.17% | 1,442,080 | 3.93% | $44.71 | $44.31 |
| KNX | AMC | $41.38 | 14.86% | 2,260,040 | 3.43% | $39.78 | $39.94 |
| LVLT | AMC | $52.85 | 1.52% | 2,675,280 | 3.56% | $53.49 | $54.12 |
| MCHP | AMC | $93.12 | 12.11% | 1,808,790 | 3.13% | $92.46 | $90.92 |
| PDCE | AMC | $46.25 | 10.91% | 1,014,680 | 4.09% | $47.40 | $47.71 |
| QGEN | AMC | $33.71 | 1.55% | 1,201,430 | 2.45% | $34.12 | $33.78 |
| RSPP | AMC | $32.00 | 12.01% | 2,048,160 | 3.38% | $33.13 | $33.12 |
| SWKS | AMC | $105.52 | 4.94% | 1,500,290 | 2.40% | $105.69 | $103.26 |
| TRIP | AMC | $37.75 | 20.21% | 3,024,210 | 6.73% | $39.47 | $40.95 |
| WTW | AMC | $44.63 | 71.96% | 1,443,700 | 17.20% | $45.96 | $44.97 |
| ZAYO | AMC | $35.75 | 3.31% | 2,083,820 | 2.21% | $35.63 | $35.13 |
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.18-9.25.2017
September 18, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“If I panic, everyone else panics.” – Kobe Bryant
“Any bull market covers a multitude of sins, so there may be all sorts of problems with the current system that we won’t see until the bear market comes.” – Ron Chernow
“Remember, I’m neither a bear nor a bull, I’m an agnostic opportunist. I want to make money short and long-term. I want to find good situations and exploit them.” – Jim Cramer
“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it’s one that severely compounds the risk.” – David Ignatius
Investors were caught of guard last week. September is historically a very poor performing month. There have been litanies of problems: Hurricane Harvey, North Korea, Hurricane Irma and Bitcoin. What happened?
The Dow hit record highs four days in a row. The S&P 500 closed the week at another new record high – up 1.58% for the week. The other major indexes turned in equally stellar performances. The small-cap dominated Russell 2000 led the way with gains of 2.31%. The rally left the cognoscenti struggling for explanations.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
| Index | 15-Sep | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 22268.34 | 470.55 | 2.16% | 12.68% | 9.84% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2500.23 | 38.80 | 1.58% | 11.70% | 10.17% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5988.00 | 74.33 | 1.26% | 23.12% | 12.51% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1431.72 | 32.30 | 2.31% | 5.50% | 11.83%(RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1105.11 | 18.13 | 1.67% | 11.47% | 7.80%(VXO) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4603.58 | 42.71 | 0.94% | 13.63% | NA |
| Crude Oil (CLV7) | 50.37 | 2.81 | 5.91% | -6.53% | 26.65%(OVX) |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1323.50 | (27.70) | -2.05% | 14.89% | 12.06 (GVZ) |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 10.17 | (1.95) | -16.09% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The biggest news on the VIX front is the return of Russell Rhoads blogging at http://www.cboe.com/blogs about the VIX and associated volatility issues. Russell is also a terrific guest on Stocks & Jocks every Thursday morning (listen live)! Of special interest are his series of reports from the CBOE Risk Management Conference.
The monthly September VIX Futures contract goes off the board on the open Wednesday.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
| Indexes | Ticker | 15-Sep | 8-Sep | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 10.170 | 12.125 | -1.955 | -16.12% |
| VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 11.125 | 13.275 | (2.15) | -16.20% |
| VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 12.925 | 14.325 | (1.40) | -9.77% |
| VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 14.175 | 14.875 | (0.70) | -4.71% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 8.30 | 11.29 | (2.99) | -26.48% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 12.96 | 14.69 | (1.73) | -11.78% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 15.09 | 16.37 | (1.28) | -7.82% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 90.63 | 100.12 | (9.49) | -9.48% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 144.54 | 135.39 | 9.15 | 6.76% |
| Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 24.69 | 31.83 | (7.14) | -22.43% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 42.80 | 48.52 | (5.72) | -11.79% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 35.57 | 40.26 | (4.69) | -11.65% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.38 | 22.47 | (1.09) | -4.85% |
| Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 86.04 | 76.33 | 9.71 | 12.72% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 89.61 | 79.70 | 9.91 | 12.43% |
| Data Source: OptionVue8 |
This will be one of the most important weeks of the year when it comes to economic data. We are in the midst of a Central Bank bull market. The Federal Reserve holds its regularly scheduled meeting, and is expected to detail a timetable for reducing its balance sheet. We, also, get data on existing home sales and housing starts. The wild cards remain North Korea and the District of Columbia.
The god’s are conspiring against me. I will include my usual scans of earnings announcements next week. There are very few earnings announcements this week. The highlights include: Adobe Systems, Autozone, Fedex, Bed Bath and Beyond, Analogic, General Mills, Herman Miller, and CarMax. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“There is no training, classroom or otherwise, that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or end of a bear market.” – Paul Tudor Jones
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, September 18:
Economic: Housing Market Index – 10:00.
International: Eurozone HICP – 5:00 AM.
Other: Listen to Frank Fahey on “Stocks and Jocks” Listen Live
Tuesday, September 19:
Economic: Housing Start – 8:30, Current Account – 8:30, Import and Export Prices – 8:30, Redbook – 8:55.
International: Japan Merchandise Trade – 7:50 PM.
Other: FOMC meeting begins.
Wednesday, September 20:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, Existing Homes Sales – 10:00, , EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30/
International Economic: Germany –PPI – 2:00 AM, Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30 AM.
Other: FOMC Forecasts – 2:00 PM, Fed Chair Press Conference – 2:30 PM. September VIX Futures contract (VXU7) goes off the board on the open Wednesday.
Thursday, September 21:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey – 8:30, FHFA House Price Index – 9:00, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Leading Indicators – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International: No major announcements.
Friday, September 22:
Economic: Retail Sales – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Business Inventories – 10:–, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International: France GDP = 2:45 AM, France PMI Composite Flash – 3:00 AM, Germany PMI Composite Flash – 3:30 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite Flash – 4:00 AM.
Other: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to speak at the Swiss National Bank Research Conference 2017 – Monetary Policy Design, Conduct and Effects in Zurich, Switzerland, with media Q&A – 6:00 AM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to deliver the keynote at the “Global Oil Supply & Demand: Prospects for Greater Balance” Conference in Oklahoma City, with audience Q&A – 9:30 AM.
Monday, September 25:
Economic: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey – 10:30.
International: No major announcements.
Other: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will speak about workforce development at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, New York, with audience Q&A – 8:30 AM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans to speak about current economic conditions or monetary policy at the Economic of Grand Rapids Luncheon Meeting, with audience and media Q&A, in Grand Rapids, Michigan – 12:40PM, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Eye of the Hawk Town Hall Event in Grand Forks, North Dakota, with audience Q&A. – 6:30PM.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.11-9.18.2017
September 11, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why.” – Bernard Baruch
“Panic causes tunnel vision.” – Simon Sinek
“A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself.” – Jesse Livermore
“Panic is a natural human response to danger, but it’s one that severely compounds the risk.” – David Ignatius
The major indexes continue remain within easy striking distance of all-time highs. There is almost palpable disbelief among the financial cognoscenti that the indexes have not had a correction. Once again I have been reminded about the perils of ignoring a trend. The trend is bullish.
A characteristic of a bull market is the markets celebrate good news while ignoring bad news. Bad news sells. As a result, purveyors of news and opinion focus on the bad news as a means to market their product. The bad news last week was impressive. Natural disasters (Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Jose), gas shortages, weakness in the US dollar, and an H-Bomb test by North Korea dominated the news. The Republican Party received the worst news when Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump cut a deal. The deal removed a potential debt ceiling crisis from the equation. The bad news was not totally ignored. This litany of bad news had only a minor effect on the market.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
| Index | 8-Sep | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21797.79 | (189.77) | -0.86% | 10.30% | 12.01% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2461.43 | (15.12) | -0.61% | 9.97% | 12.12% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5913.67 | 15.77 | 0.27% | 21.59% | 16.07% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1399.42 | (14.10) | -1.00% | 3.12% | 15.49%(RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1086.98 | (8.27) | -0.76% | 9.64% | 10.761%(VXO) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4560.87 | 69.74 | 1.55% | 12.57% | NA |
| Crude Oil (CLV7) | 47.56 | 0.21 | 0.44% | -11.75% | 29.49%(OVX) |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1351.20 | 21.30 | 1.60% | 17.29% | 13.77 (GVZ) |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 12.12 | 1.99 | 19.64% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
Negative news was ignored by the equity markets, but it was not ignored by the VIX and other volatility products. The CBOE Short-term Volatility Index (VXST) showed the greatest reaction to uncertainty by closing at 11.29. up 2.32 or 25.86%. The front month VIX future (VXU7) contango settled at 7.91% vs. Thursday’s contango of 9.75%. Narrowing of the contango percentage shows a greater relative concern for the front month versus the second month.
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
| Indexes | Ticker | 8-Sep | 1-Sep | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 12.12 | 11.28 | 0.84 | 7.45% |
| VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 13.275 | 13.075 | 0.20 | 1.53% |
| VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 14.325 | 14.025 | 0.30 | 2.14% |
| VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 14.875 | 14.425 | 0.45 | 3.12% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 11.29 | 8.97 | 2.32 | 25.86% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 14.69 | 13.99 | 0.70 | 5.00% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 16.37 | 15.42 | 0.95 | 6.16% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 100.12 | 93.53 | 6.59 | 7.05% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 135.39 | 130.16 | 5.23 | 4.02% |
| Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 31.83 | 30.88 | 0.95 | 3.08% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 48.52 | 47.68 | 0.84 | 1.76% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 40.26 | 39.63 | 0.63 | 1.59% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 22.47 | 21.86 | 0.61 | 2.79% |
| Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 76.33 | 77.96 | (1.63) | -2.09% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 79.70 | 73.89 | 5.81 | 7.86% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The second week of September is light on economic reports. The only numbers of note will be on inflation and industrial production. The impact of the hurricanes may push Fed unwinding further out into the future.the future. The week winds up with consumer sentiment winds up Friday and will tally the psychological effects of both Harvey as well as Hurricane Irma. The wild cards remain North Korea and pull together a tax reform bill.
There are very few earnings announcements this week. The highlights include: United Natural Foods, Cracker Barrel, and Oracle. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” – John Templeton
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, September 11:
Listen to Frank Fahey on “Stocks and Jocks” Listen Live
Economic: No major announcements.
International: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Tuesday, September 12:
Economic: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – 6:00, Redbook – 8:55, JOLTS – 10:00.
International: Great Britain CPI – 4:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Wednesday, September 13:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, PPI – FD – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30
International Economic: Germany CPI – 3:15 AM, Great Britain Labour Market Report – 4:30 AM, Eurozone Industrial Production – 5:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Thursday, September 14:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Consumer Price Index – – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International: Great Britain Retail Sales – 4:30 AM.
Other: Bank of England Announcement & Minutes – 7:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Friday, September 15:
QUADRUPLE WITCHING
Economic: Retail Sales – 8:30, Empire State Manufacturing Survey – 8:30, Industrial Production – 9:15, Business Inventories – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International: Eurozone Merchandise Trade – 5:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Monday, September 18:
Economic: Housing Market Index – 10:00.
International: Eurozone HICP – 5:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.4-9.11.2017
September 4, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Dreams come true; without that possibility, nature would not incite us to have them.” – John Updike
“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies, most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman
“The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore
“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis
The end of the month was on Thursday last week. Pundits across financial media were focused on telling investors about the impact of the first losing month in four months. Time and energy were spent on what a losing month for the indexes would portend for the rest of the year. It turns out we were able to witness a monumental waste of time, energy and breath. The only major index with negative monthly performance was the small cap laden Russell 2000.
Here are the August results:
| Index | 31-Aug | 31-Jul | Aug Change | August % | 2017 YTD |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21948.10 | 21891.00 | 57.10 | 0.26% | 11.06% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2471.65 | 2470.30 | 1.35 | 0.05% | 10.43% |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5988.60 | 5880.30 | 108.30 | 1.84% | 23.13% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1405.28 | 1425.14 | (19.86) | -1.39% | 3.55% |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1093.78 | 1088.12 | 5.66 | 0.52% | 10.32% |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4481.93 | 4490.36 | (8.43) | -0.19% | 10.63% |
| Crude Oil (CLV7) | 47.10 | 50.17 | (3.07) | -6.12% | -12.60% |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1326.70 | 1275.30 | 51.40 | 4.03% | 15.16% |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 10.59 | 10.26 | 0.33 | 3.22% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
The end-of-month and end-of-week market rallies were the result of a consensus that Hurricane Harvey as an impetus to force come to an agreement on the debt ceiling increase. This view put concerns about North Korea and a government shut down in the rear-view mirror. However, North Korea’s detonation of an H-Bomb may have removed some of the investor comfort zone.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
| Index | 1-Sep | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21987.56 | 173.89 | 0.80% | 11.26% | 10.62% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2476.55 | 34.30 | 1.40% | 10.64% | 10.13% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5897.90 | 75.37 | 1.29% | 21.27% | 15.52% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1413.52 | 36.07 | 2.62% | 4.15% | 15.68% (RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1095.25 | 15.23 | 1.41% | 10.47% | 12.91% (VXO) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4491.13 | 90.92 | 2.07% | 10.85% | NA |
| Crude Oil (CLV7) | 47.35 | (0.51) | -1.07% | -12.14% | 28.97%(OVX) |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1329.90 | 33.40 | 2.58% | 15.44% | 12.73 (GVZ) |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 10.13 | (1.15) | -10.20% | NA |
| Indexes | Ticker | 1-Sep | 25-Aug | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 10.13 | 11.28 | (1.15) | -10.20% |
| VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 12.625 | 13.075 | (0.45) | -3.44% |
| VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 13.775 | 14.025 | (0.25) | -1.78% |
| VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 14.250 | 14.425 | (0.18) | -1.21% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 7.94 | 8.97 | (1.03) | -11.48% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 13.59 | 13.99 | (0.40) | -2.86% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 15.33 | 15.42 | (0.09) | -0.58% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 93.60 | 93.53 | 0.07 | 0.07% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 130.53 | 130.16 | 0.37 | 0.28% |
|
Long VIX ETP’s
|
|||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 28.94 | 30.88 | (1.94) | -6.28% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 46.17 | 47.68 | (1.51) | -3.17% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 38.35 | 39.63 | (1.28) | -3.23% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.65 | 21.86 | (0.21) | -0.96% |
|
Inverse VIX ETP’s
|
|||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 80.31 | 77.96 | 2.35 | 3.01% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 83.72 | 73.89 | 9.83 | 13.30% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
U.S. markets are closed in observance of Labor Day. The shortened trading week is quiet on economic reports. Factory orders, mortgage applications, and wholesale trade highlight the balance of the week. In Europe, the European Central Bank is expected to leave their policy unchanged. Merchandise trade and industrial production dominate the economic reports to be released.
The wild card remains North Korea. North Korea carried out its most powerful nuclear test this weekend. Off-hours trading on Sunday and Monday showed a muted response. S&P 500 futures were down 6.25 or 0.35%. September VIX futures were up 6.13% or 0.775.
This week earnings announcements slow down to a trickle this week. The highlights include: Dave&Buster’s, Hewlett Packard, Casey’s General Stores, Fred’s, G-III Apparel, Korn Ferry, Barnes&Noble, Brady, John Wiley&Sons, VeriFone, and Kroger. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“Ideas come and go, stories stay.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what’s going on. A psychotic is a guy who’s just found out what’s going on.” – William S. Burroughs
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, September 4:
U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed.
International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM.
Tuesday, September 5:
Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.
International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00 AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00 AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00 AM.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Wednesday, September 6:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, International Trade – 8:30, Redbook – 8:66, PMI Services Index – 9:45, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Beige Book – 2:00.
International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00 AM.
Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled “The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms,” as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15AM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 9/1 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| FRAN | BMO | $7.66 | 1,169,780 | 12.20% | $7.50 | $8.23 |
| FRED | BMO | $6.07 | 1,582,650 | 8.04% | $6.07 | $6.45 |
| HDS | BMO | $33.02 | 4,249,940 | 9.08% | $31.73 | $31.66 |
| JKS | BMO | $28.52 | 1,099,190 | 6.52% | $25.34 | $26.44 |
| DDC | AMC | $14.15 | 1,392,480 | 1.78% | $14.11 | $14.07 |
| RH | AMC | $48.51 | 2,385,240 | 15.46% | $46.53 | $58.71 |
Thursday, September 7:
Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00 Money Supply – 4:30.
International: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00 AM, Japan GDP – 7:50 PM, China Merchandise Trade Balance – 10:00PM.
Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 7:45 – AM. President Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley will speak about the U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at a Money Marketeers of New York University event, with audience and media Q&A, in New York – 7:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated discussion on his views on the economy at An Evening with Raphael Bostic in Atlanta – 7:00 PM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to discuss the U.S. economic outlook at the Omaha Economic Forum in Omaha – 8:15 PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 9/1 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| BKS | BMO | $7.50 | 1,342,960 | 7.69% | $7.55 | $7.60 |
| DVMT | BMO | $74.76 | 1,235,420 | 1.39% | $71.63 | $68.90 |
| FCEL | BMO | $1.60 | 1,051,880 | 1.06% | $1.49 | $1.49 |
| HOV | BMO | $1.88 | 1,450,190 | 7.11% | $1.90 | $2.06 |
| MBLY | BMO | $62.67 | 2,519,760 | 2.79% | $63.01 | $62.99 |
| AOBC | AMC | $16.52 | 1,107,980 | 7.16% | $17.46 | $18.73 |
| FNSR | AMC | $23.19 | 2,779,340 | 11.48% | $24.26 | $25.50 |
| PAY | AMC | $19.58 | 1,674,920 | 8.65% | $19.37 | $19.26 |
| RDFN | AMC | $23.60 | 1,863,690 | None | $24.69 | $26.39 |
| SGYP | AMC | $3.01 | 4,299,530 | 3.34% | $3.01 | $3.48 |
| TLRD | AMC | $12.15 | 1,564,820 | 22.72% | $11.54 | $11.62 |
Friday, September 8:
Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00 , Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International: Germany Merchandise Trade – 2:00 A, France Industrial Production 2:45AM, Great Britain Merchandise Trade – 4:30 AM, China CPI & PPI – 9:30 PM.
Other: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on Consumer Finance Issues at New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference in Philadelphia – 8:45 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Monday, September 11:
Economic: No major announcements.
International: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
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Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 8.28-9.4.2017
August 28, 2017
“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur
“Money is made by sitting, not trading.” – Jesse Livermore
“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies, most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman
“Computers have enabled people to make more mistakes faster than almost any invention in history, with the possible exception of tequila and handguns.” – Mitch Ratcliffe
“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis
The truncated, end-of-summer, version of the Prepared Mind. The weekly numbers and economic calendar are here but without commentary.
Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:
| Index | 25-Aug | Change | % Weekly | 2017 YTD | Volatility of Index |
| Dow Jones Industrials (DJIA) | 21813.67 | 139.16 | 0.64% | 10.38% | 11.19% (VXD) |
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 2442.25 | 16.70 | 0.69% | 9.11% | 11.28% (VIX) |
| NASDAQ 100 (NDX) | 5822.53 | 31.62 | 0.55% | 19.72% | 15.52% (VXN) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 1377.45 | 19.66 | 1.45% | 1.50% | 15.68% (RVX) |
| S&P 100 (OEX) | 1080.02 | 6.50 | 0.61% | 8.94% | 12.91% (VXO) |
| Dow Jones Transportation (TRAN) | 4400.21 | 18.31 | 0.42% | 8.61% | NA |
| Crude Oil (CLV7) | 47.86 | (1.04) | -2.13% | -11.19% | 10.28%(OVX) |
| Gold (GCZ7) | 1296.50 | 6.20 | 0.48% | 12.54% | 12.63 (GVZ) |
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 11.28 | (2.98) | -20.90% | NA |
Data Source: OptionVue8
Here is an overview of last week for the VIX and related products:
| Indexes | Ticker | 25-Aug | 18-Aug | Change | % Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 11.28 | 14.26 | (2.98) | -20.90% |
| VIX September Future (9/20/2017) | VXU7 | 13.075 | 14.975 | (1.90) | -12.69% |
| VIX October Future (10/18/2017) | VXV7 | 14.025 | 15.125 | (1.10) | -7.27% |
| VIX November Future (11/15/2017) | VXX7 | 14.425 | 15.375 | (0.95) | -6.18% |
| CBOE Short-term Volatility Index | VXST | 8.97 | 13.17 | (4.20) | -31.89% |
| CBOE 3 Month Volatility Index | VXV | 13.99 | 15.65 | (1.66) | -10.61% |
| CBOE Mid-term Volatility Index (6 month) | VXMT | 15.42 | 16.38 | (0.96) | -5.86% |
| VIX of VIX | VVIX | 93.53 | 114.39 | (20.86) | -18.24% |
| CBOE SKEW Index | SKEW | 130.16 | 128.86 | 1.30 | 1.01% |
| Long VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF | UVXY | 30.88 | 38.97 | (8.09) | -20.76% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN | VXX | 47.68 | 53.20 | (5.52) | -10.38% |
| ProShares VIX Short Term Futures ETF | VIXY | 39.63 | 44.19 | (4.56) | -10.32% |
| iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN | VXZ | 21.86 | 22.51 | (0.65) | -2.89% |
| Inverse VIX ETP’s | |||||
| ProShares Short VIX Short Term Future ETF | SVXY | 77.96 | 70.66 | 7.30 | 10.33% |
| Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN | XIV | 81.32 | 73.89 | 7.43 | 10.06% |
| Velocity Shares Daily VIX Midterm ETN | ZIV | 71.57 | 69.68 | 1.89 | 2.71% |
Data Source: OptionVue8
As August comes to a close, reports will be released for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the second estimate of U.S. second-quarter GDP, motor vehicle sales, and the employment situation. Important inflation data includes PCE price indexes as part of Thursday’s personal income and outlays report. Other important data includes advance trade in goods on Monday and also home sales on Thursday. Consumer confidence on Tuesday and consumer sentiment on Friday, bring consumer psychology onto focus . Hurricane Harvey, North Korea, and the debt ceiling are in play as wild cards for the upcoming week.
This earnings season winds down this the week. The highlights include: G-III Apparel, Scansource, H&R Blockm Movado, Hain Celestial, Best Buy, Shoe Carnival, Dytech, Bob Evans Farms, Chico’s. Brown-Forman, Analog Devices, Vera Bradley, Campbell Soup, Dollar General, Oxford Industries, Genesco and Ciena. Confirm the date and time of any company’s earnings announcement before trading any earnings announcement strategy. The most accurate source of this information is the company’s investor relations website.
Advice to stimulate your imagination:
“A man without ethics is a wild beast loosed upon this world.” – Albert Camus
“The hurricane complicates things in that what would have been purely a business decision becomes a decision of the heart.” – Henry Cisneros
“A point of view can be a dangerous luxury when submitted for insight and understanding.” – Marshall McLuhan
“Don’t give me timing, give me time.” – Jesse Livermore
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.” – Jean-Paul Sartre
Monday, August 28:
Economic: International Trade in Goods – 8:30, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey 10:30.
International Economic: Japan Unemployment Rate – 7:30 PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 8/25 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| PRXL | AMC | $87.70 | 1,079,620 | 7.32% | $87.69 | $87.52 |
Tuesday, August 29:
Economic: Redbook – 8:55, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index – 9:00, Consumer Confidence – 10:00, State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00.
International: France GDP – 2:45 AM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 8/25 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| BBY | BMO | $61.87 | 3,803,170 | 14.81% | $60.80 | $58.15 |
| HAIN | BMO | $40.40 | 2,422,470 | 4.36% | $42.08 | $42.40 |
Wednesday, August 30:
Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, ADP Employment Report – 8:15, GDP = 8:30, Corporate Profits – 8:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30.
International Economic: Eurozone Economic Sentiment – 5:00 AM, Germany CPI – 8:00 AM, Japan Industrial Production – 7:50 PM.
Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled “The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms,” as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15 AM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 8/25 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| ADI | BMO | $78.97 | 3,333,630 | 2.84% | $78.94 | $78.86 |
| CTRP | AMC | $52.48 | 3,795,810 | 4.54% | $51.71 | $54.83 |
| FIVE | AMC | $50.34 | 1,080,210 | 5.57% | $48.80 | $48.63 |
| KEYS | AMC | $39.82 | 1,108,750 | 1.90% | $40.56 | $41.28 |
| WDAY | AMC | $103.57 | 1,414,370 | 7.63% | $103.27 | $101.79 |
Thursday. August 31:
Economic: Chain Store Sales, Challenger Job-Cut Report – 7:30, Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30, Chicago PMI – 9:45, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, Money Supply – 4:30.
International: Germany Retail Sales – 2:00 AM, France PPI & CPI – 2:45 AM, Germany Unemployment Rate – 3:55 AM, Eurozone Unemployment Rate – 5:00 AM, China PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45 PM.
Earnings:
| SYMBOL | B/A | 8/25 CLOSE | AVGVOL | AVG MOVE | SMA 10 | 50% FIB |
| CPB | BMO | $51.40 | 1,594,050 | 4.59% | $53.51 | $52.88 |
| DG | BMO | $77.67 | 3,096,050 | 7.41% | $75.37 | $75.36 |
| MBLY | BMO | $63.25 | 2,642,620 | 2.79% | $63.23 | $62.99 |
| TD | BMO | $51.94 | 1,261,150 | 0.64% | $50.98 | $51.16 |
| AMBA | AMC | $52.98 | 1,018,910 | 8.15% | $51.52 | $51.58 |
| LULU | AMC | $60.21 | 2,548,280 | 15.14% | $59.61 | $60.73 |
| PANW | AMC | $128.63 | 1,551,780 | 15.43% | $131.05 | $133.78 |
| RH | AMC | $45.43 | 2,441,390 | 15.46% | $49.38 | $62.44 |
Friday, September 1:
Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00, Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.
International: Germany PMI Manufacturing Index – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Index – 4:00 AM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
Monday, September 4:
U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed.
International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00 AM.
Tuesday, September 5:
Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.
International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00AM.
Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00 PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00 PM.
Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.
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