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Riddle Me This

October 10, 2011


Good morning. It was a solid week to the upside last week, with the SPY gaining 2.3% to close at 115.71. The “relief” rally also caused the VIX to drop sharply to a level of 36.20, a weekly drop of 15.7%. A lot of this was due to a growing idea that the European debt situation was about to be more adequately addressed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the governments of Germany and France.

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Moral Compass of Mayberry

July 18, 2011


Good morning. The market finished down last week despite a late short-covering rally on Friday afternoon. The SPY finished the week down 2.71 to finish at 131.69 (2%) after trading as low as 130.77 on Friday. The VIX soared 23% to close at 19.53 and the GLD (gold ETF) finished the week up 3.3% at 155.19. The market activity can be summarized as a series of fairly violent moves within the range of 130.50-135.50, with a lot of the significant trading taking place outside of normal market hours.

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Who Wants the Truth?

June 27, 2011


Good morning. The SPY finished the week down .24 (call it flat) after having some wild moves on Wednesday and Thursday. A rally early in the week culminated in a Wednesday high of 129.81, only to sell off to a Thursday low of 126.19 before bouncing back strongly (after yet another announcement of impending settlement in Greece) to a Thursday close of 128.30. Based on the strength of that bounce you might have thought the rally would continue, but you would have been mistaken, or at least early.

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Competing Against Fear

August 16, 2010


Good morning. It was a sharply down week for the market last week, with the SPY closing at 108.31, down 5.08 for the week (3.6%). The VIX, as expected with the market down, ran up 20.7%, closing up 5.5 at 26.23. The close Friday on the September S&P Futures contract of 1076.10 is fairly close to the midpoint of the post-holiday low of 1003 (in the pre-market session on July 6) and the high on August 5 of 1127.

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OK, Here’s the Situation…

November 16, 2009


Good Morning. Another strong week for the major averages, with the SPY closing at 109.62. That is up 2.3% from last Friday’s close of 107.13, and now up a full 63% from the low of last March. The VIX was down 3% on the week, from 24.19 to 23.36. A lot of the rally seems driven, and is for sure being credited for the advance, by the continuing weakness of the dollar. It goes something like this.

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