Blog Archives
So, What Happened?
November 2, 2009
Good morning. Despite a solid advance of 2.1% last Thursday on first estimates of third quarter GDP, the week showed a fairly large decline in the SPY of 4.64, or 4%. The close Friday in the SPY of 103.56 represents a 6.1% decline from the 110.31 high set on 10/21. Last Friday was particularly troublesome in that the market more than gave away a solid advance on Thursday, an advance based on a strong economic number.
Traditionalists Ask “Why?”
October 12, 2009
Happy Columbus Day. Remember to feed the meters even though all public employees are enjoying a paid Holiday. More on that later. The market had a huge rebound week last week, and we are on the verge of totally forgetting that nasty, and ultimately forgettable to some, sell-off of the last two years. The SPY rallied from 102.49 to 107.26, a very large weekly move of 4.7%. The VIX was pummeled, starting the week at 28.68 and finishing 19% lower at 23.12. So we are to believe that not only is the market going straight up, and your investment in the market worth more, the insurance on the now higher value should be less. I thought the market was supposed to be rational?
Striking a Balance
October 5, 2009
Good morning. Last week the market had its second down week in a row, with the SPY down 1.96 to close at 102.49. That represents a decline of 1.9%, and is 5.2% off the high of 108.06 reached of 9/17. Is it a healthy pause or is the rally over? To be determined, but clearly the “buy every dip” mentality evident in the long run-up has cooled some. Economic numbers in the last couple of weeks have shown uneven progress in the recovery, and those most recent actually seem to indicate that the recovery is stalling in the face of huge governmental stimulus.
Social and Economic Health
August 31, 2009
Good morning. Sort of an inside week for the market last week, what we in the business would call a premium sellers dream. The SPY was up a whole .41 on the week, moving from 102.97 to 103.38 (.4%). The VIX was down a little, from 25.01 to 24.76, not much of a drop considering how little movement there was. For those looking to buy long term put protection, as we do in the PIP Program, the cost for at the money put protection for December of 2011 is in the 15.5-17% of the underlying range for 28 months.
Monday Rant
August 17, 2009
Good morning. First down week in a while for the market, but only a little, with Friday’s late rally almost pulling the SPY even for the week. The SPY closed at 100.79, down from 101.20, or .4%. The VIX was actually down for the week, closing at 24.27, down from last week’s close of 24.76. The little damage that was done to the market was generally attributed to the surprise Consumer Confidence reading of 63.2 versus forecast of 69.