Blog Archives
The Ghost of Progress Past
June 29, 2009
Good morning. Very slow week for the market on a weekly basis, but complete with a significant down day on Monday and a large up day on Wednesday. The market continues to move somewhat violently within a range based on whatever news seems to be significant on a given day. On that same theme, the market continues to make news based significant moves, followed by literally hours of very slow and static trading.
Assumptions Going Forward
June 22, 2009
Good morning. First real down week for the market in a while, with the SPY down from 95.08 to 92.04, or 3.2% on the week. A lot of the down move was caused by a correction in the price of commodities, most notably oil. Oil was down over 3% on Friday, and the oil part of the SPY (XLE) was down 8% on the week, from 53.51 to 49.21.
Where Is Our Adult Supervision?
June 15, 2009
Good morning. Last week the market continued to advance, but at a very reduced rate. The SPY finished the week at 95.08, up from 94.55 or .05%, and is now up 5.3% from the 2008 close of 90.29. Rising commodity prices, especially oil, and a series of economic numbers that are showing generally a decreasing rate of deterioration seem to be fueling the rally.
A Little Revolution…
May 18, 2009
Good morning. The market had its first losing week in a while last week, but not horrible. The SPY was down 4.27 on the week, from 92.98 to 88.71, leaving it down 4.5% on the week and 1.7% on the year. Some of the sell-off last week was due to a huge supply of new issues, as many of the large banks and some others went out to raise new capital. The good news is that most were able to find new sources of capital at these levels, so at a lower level the market is still performing its main function, providing capital to those firms in need.
Don’t Drink the Water
May 4, 2009
Good morning. A mostly sane and slightly positive week last week, with the SPY up from 86.66 to 87.89, or 1.4%. The relative sanity was reflected in the continuing drop in the VIX, from 36.81 to 35.29, or 4.16%. You would need to go back to last September to find the VIX this low, and again it is an indication that investors are starting to feel (rightly or wrongly) that some positive things are starting to happen and maybe the worst is behind us.