Blog
Who Do We Think We Are?
January 19, 2009
Good morning. Another week and still no rally of any sort, not even a feeble Bear market rally. Given the action in Europe today (Dr. Martin Luther King’s birthday) I do not hold out a lot of positive hope for tomorrow’s market as well, even though it is Inauguration Day. It seems Royal Bank of Scotland, and others, still have issues.
The Money Pit
January 12, 2009
Good morning. The first full week of the New Year felt like a slower version of some of the weeks of the old year. The SPY fell from $92.96 to $89.09 (4.2%) and the VIX advanced from 39.18 to 42.81, as the ongoing fears of unemployment and access to credit continue to weigh on the market. We had a nice upside earnings surprise in Monsanto (MON), up almost 20% in one day, but most earnings announcements are bringing a steady stream of bad forecasts going forward, cuts in planned capital spending, and either hiring freezes or layoffs of some kind.
The Curious Case of Bernie Madoff
January 5, 2009
Good morning, and Happy New Year. We are fresh off a solid three-day rally, with the SPY moving sharply up from an $86.91 on 12/29 to $92.99 on 1/2/09. The VIX has continued to slide down as well, from 43.9 on 12/29 to 39.18 on 1/2/09. Is it the start of something positive, a relief rally that the horrible investment year of 2008 is over, a celebration of the new President, or just another bear market rally?
Like a Shout in a Hurricane
December 29, 2008
Good morning. The year end rally continues to be elusive, the VIX is creeping down steadily, the market may be settling into a range at levels no one is happy with, are these the cards being dealt? Right now it seems so. On the credit front we continue to have such fear that the 30-year rates on U.S. Treasury Bonds are 2.6%. Incredible, does anyone know any sane person who would give their money to anyone for 30 years at an interest rate of 2.6%? Does anyone really predict that there will be zero inflation for 30 years?
Is All This Necessary to Save the “System”?
December 22, 2008
Good morning. The end of the year is almost upon us, and not a lot of people are going to be missing 2008 much. The SPY is still down almost 40% on the year, and the market does not seem able to provide even a token end of year rally, though we still have a little time.