Frank Fahey: Market News for the Prepared Mind: 9.4-9.11.2017

September 4, 2017

“Chance favors the Prepared Mind.” – Louis Pasteur

“Dreams come true; without that possibility, nature would not incite us to have them.” – John Updike

“Hurricane season brings a humbling reminder that, despite our technologies, most of nature remains unpredictable.” – Diane Ackerman

“The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore

“There is a profound difference between information and meaning.” – Warren Bennis 

The end of the month was on Thursday last week. Pundits across financial media were focused on telling investors about the impact of the first losing month in four months. Time and energy were spent on what a losing month for the indexes would portend for the rest of the year. It turns out we were able to witness a monumental waste of time, energy and breath. The only major index with negative monthly performance was the small cap laden Russell 2000.

Here are the August results:

Data Source: OptionVue8 

The end-of-month and end-of-week market rallies were the result of a consensus that Hurricane Harvey as an impetus to force come to an agreement on the debt ceiling increase. This view put concerns about North Korea and a government shut down in the rear-view mirror. However, North Korea’s detonation of an H-Bomb may have removed some of the investor comfort zone.

Here is an overview of the US market behavior last week and for 2017 YTD:

Monday, September 4: 

U.S. Holiday: Labor Day – Markets Closed.

International: Eurozone PPI – 5:00AM.

Tuesday, September 5: 

Economic: Factory Orders – 10:00, Gallup US ECI – 2:00.

International: Germany PMI Composite – 3:55 AM, Eurozone PMI Composite – 4:00 AM, Eurozone GDP – 5:00 AM, Eurozone Retail Sales – 5:00 AM.

Other: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to speak at a moderated Q&A at the 1st Tuesday Speaker Series at Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis, with audience Q&A – 2:00PM, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan to participate in a moderated Q&A session in Dallas, with audience and media Q&A – 7:00PM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Wednesday, September 6: 

Economic: MBA Mortgage Applications – 7:00, International Trade – 8:30, Redbook – 8:66, PMI Services Index – 9:45, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index – 10:00, Beige Book – 2:00.

International Economic: Germany Manufacturers’ Orders – 2:00 AM.

Other: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver a speech entitled “The Role of Boards at Large Financial Firms,” as the breakfast presentation during the Large-Bank Directors Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, with audience and media Q&A, in Chicago – 9:15AM.

Earnings:

Thursday, September 7: 

Economic: Weekly Jobless Claims – 8:30, Productivity and Costs – 8:30, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index – 9:45, Quarterly Services Survey – 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30, EIA Petroleum Status Report – 11:00 Money Supply – 4:30.

International: Germany Industrial Production – 2:00 AM, Japan GDP – 7:50 PM, China Merchandise Trade Balance – 10:00PM.

Other: European Central Bank Announcement – 7:45 – AM. President Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley will speak about the U.S. economic outlook and implications for monetary policy at a Money Marketeers of New York University event, with audience and media Q&A, in New York – 7:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a moderated discussion on his views on the economy at An Evening with Raphael Bostic in Atlanta – 7:00 PM, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to discuss the U.S. economic outlook at the Omaha Economic Forum in Omaha – 8:15 PM.

Earnings:

Friday, September 8: 

Economic: Motor Vehicle Sales, Employment Situation – 8:30, PMI Manufacturing Index – 9:45, ISM Manufacturing Index – 110:00, Construction Spending – 10:00, Consumer Sentiment – 10:00 , Baker Hughes Rig Count – 1:00.

International: Germany Merchandise Trade – 2:00 A, France Industrial Production 2:45AM, Great Britain Merchandise Trade – 4:30 AM, China CPI & PPI – 9:30 PM.

Other: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on Consumer Finance Issues at New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference in Philadelphia – 8:45 AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

Monday, September 11: 

Economic: No major announcements.

International: Japan Tertiary Index – 1:30AM.

Earnings: None meeting scan criteria.

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