Blog Archives

Economics 101


Good afternoon. It was a second in a row up week for the market last week, with the SPY advancing .59 to close at 111.48 (.5%). It was significant because the market was able to hold and consolidate the large gains of the week before, leaving the SPY up a strong 4.3% for the two-week period. The VIX was actually up slightly (3%) last week but still showed a large drop of 10% for the two-week period, closing at 21.98.

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Mental Midgets and More


Good morning. Another quiet week in terms of volatility last week, but again the market did finish with a gain. The SPY was up fractionally again, gaining .61 to close at 116.58. At times, both Thursday and Friday, it looked like there was a chance of a real upside breakout, but late sell-offs dampened the mood. On Thursday, for instance, the SPY traded all the way up to 118.17 before closing near the day’s lows at 116.65. Normally that would be the sign of a tired market, but any attempt at a sell-off seems to be met by buyers below the market (at least so far).  The VIX was actually up on the week, although fractionally, closing up .82 to 17.77. If anything, the upward skew in the implied volatility going forward worsened, and it remains significantly more expensive, in terms of implied volatility, to buy far out protective puts than it does to buy anything near term. For example, in AT&T (trading $26.24), the January 25 puts of 2012 are trading for a 23 implied volatility vs. the near term April 26 options at a 15 implied volatility. I am not sure what sort of relative carnage or volatility spike the market is collectively expecting going forward, but it is sure priced in.

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Social and Economic Health


Good morning. Sort of an inside week for the market last week, what we in the business would call a premium sellers dream. The SPY was up a whole .41 on the week, moving from 102.97 to 103.38 (.4%). The VIX was down a little, from 25.01 to 24.76, not much of a drop considering how little movement there was. For those looking to buy long term put protection, as we do in the PIP Program, the cost for at the money put protection for December of 2011 is in the 15.5-17% of the underlying range for 28 months.

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The Auto Industry


Good morning. Another solid week for the market last week, as the market, in the last four days, was able to sustain the levels reached on last Monday’s strong rally. Despite a down Friday, the S&P closed at $81.61, up 4.90 or 6.4% on the week.

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The Curious Case of Bernie Madoff


Good morning, and Happy New Year. We are fresh off a solid three-day rally, with the SPY moving sharply up from an $86.91 on 12/29 to $92.99 on 1/2/09. The VIX has continued to slide down as well, from 43.9 on 12/29 to 39.18 on 1/2/09. Is it the start of something positive, a relief rally that the horrible investment year of 2008 is over, a celebration of the new President, or just another bear market rally?

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