Blog Archives
The Bottom Line
June 7, 2010
Good morning. One of the few calendar, or seasonal, type plays in the market that has been most consistent since the early 1980’s (time I started in the trading business) has been the relative lack of volatility in the market from essentially the May options expiration through Memorial Day and even until the 4th of July. When I remember the years when I had 11 traders trading in our group on the floor of the CBOE and how difficult it was to not end up long premium entering a time of holidays, time off, graduations, etc. Not this year, it seems.
About That “Flash Crash”…
May 24, 2010
Good morning. Wild and down market last week, despite the late day rally on Friday. For the week the SPY was down 4.78 (or 4.2%) to close at 109.11.The low on Friday of 105.36 was only slightly above the so-called flash crash low of 105, not a pretty site if you were in the camp that the “flash crash” was just an anomaly.
Grind Out Some Returns
March 1, 2010
Good morning. The market ended last week down ever so slightly, with the SPY down a whole .40 (or .4%) on the week. However, that weekly summary masks a series of almost violent ups and downs on both an inter and intra day basis. For example, we had a virtually flat Monday, then a surprisingly negative Consumer Confidence number on Tuesday sent us down almost 1.5%. Wednesday brought a snap back rally of almost the same magnitude, followed by bad jobs numbers on Thursday that had us down almost 2% before recovering to almost unchanged.
Banking Industry Backlash
January 25, 2010
Good afternoon. Last week was the worst week in the market since last March, with the SPY down over 4% to close at 109.21. That closing number is also lower than the 111.44 closing number from last year, wiping out all of the early January gains. The VIX was up a dramatic 52% for the week to close at 27.30, and erased a lot of the upward sloping volatility skew we talked about last week.
Era of the Hypocrite
January 11, 2010
Good morning. It was a strong first week for the market in 2010, with the SPY closing up 3.13 on the week to 114.57 (2.8%). More importantly (maybe) is the amazing drop in the VIX, from 21.68 to 19.12, an astounding 16%. Could an expiration back spread be in our future? I am surely tempted, and may jump on one as soon as today.